TFT Issue 66!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Double chance
1X:
Universidad de Chile
Cobresal
Slavia Prague
Randers
AGF Aarhus
AB Copenhagen
Emelec Guayaquil
Hertha BSC Berlin
Olympiakos Piraeus
SSC Napoli
FK Ventspils
Daugava Daugavpils
Zalgiris Vilnius
Morelia
Groningen
Vitesse Arnhem
Rosenborg BK
Wisla Krakow
CSKA Moscow
Servette
Lausanne Sports
Metalist Kharkiv
Carabobo
The bin
Anderlecht vs Standard de Liege – lay Anderlecht at 10/11.
I was all set to lay Anderlecht here as they look a bit clueless without Boussouffa but the news that Liege will field a “50/50” team for this game has put me off entirely. I don’t know if their holy trio – Witsel, Defour, and Tchite – will play or not but Anderlecht aren’t backable here either, in my view, especially with Lukaku a doubt. For me, this is a big “no bet”.
Featured game
Lecce vs Udinese – away win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Serie A encounter between relegation-threatened Lecce and high-flying Udinese. Both sides play attacking football so we should hopefully see an open game with plenty of goals here.
Hosts Lecce are a side that I don’t like to bet against away from home. They have a really good level of support at home and nobody has an easy ride here as a result. They’ve beaten Juventus and Fiorentina here already this season, and have held AC Milan and Internazionale to draws here so they’re not a side to be taken lightly. However, despite their constant tenacity and potency, Lecce have really struggled lately due to a real lack of goalscoring. They’ve not won in four games now, losing three in a row prior to this match and scoring just once along the way. They’ve lost at home to fellow relegation-battlers Bologna along the way and although you can argue that they’ve had tough fixtures either side of that, it must be observed that Lecce are looking a bit jaded and if they’re not scoring goals then they’re going down; they don’t have the defensive strength to keep other sides out. For this game, they miss important Uruguayan midfielder Giacomazzi and that does harm their midfield as a whole and thus they’ll miss him a lot here, especially against a very combative Udinese midfield. Lecce finally have striker Di Michele back and they’ve missed him a lot – you have to wonder if he’ll score against the side where he enjoyed his most successful spell of Serie A football, don’t you?! However, Lecce are looking vulnerable at the moment and an important player like Giacomazzi simply cannot be absent for this game at such a crucial part of the season in the eyes of Lecce and I think it’ll show by the final whistle too.
Udinese have started playing much better away from home than they do at home. It’s no surprise, really – they base their attacks primarily on counter-attacks with the pace of Sanchez, the craft of Di Natale, and the relentless energy of the likes of Inler, Pinzi, and Asamoah behind them. Udinese know Lecce have to attack them and given just how well Udinese have played for some months now, you have to fear for little Lecce today. Udinese have gone unbeaten since mid-December, which is now fifteen games in a row, winning their last five consecutively. I don’t know what I’m more impressed by – the fact that they’ve scored sixteen goals in their past five games (admittedly I’ve sneakily included their recent friendly with Olimpia!), the fact that they’ve won two very difficult away games during that period with great ease, or the fact that they’ve kept five clean sheets in a row! Udinese look the most complete side in Serie A at the moment and as brilliantly effective as their attack is, I give credit to their midfield for Udinese’s continued success. Their midfielders are all box-to-box midfielders, importantly, so they protect the back four when they need to and support the attackers when they need to. They’re all good at staying back and going forwards and they move in excellent cohesion and that’s effectively what underpins Udinese’s success, hence the importance of Giacomazzi’s absence today. Pinzi misses out for Udinese today, unfortunately, but Udinese have enough in Inler and Asamoah to capitalise on the absence of Giacomazzi, in my view.
Udinese are the better of these two sides; no questions asked. Udinese simply have more quality than Lecce. They’ve already won seven times on the road this season and the reason for that is because they’re by far the highest-scoring side in Serie A away from home, averaging scoring over two goals per away game. Lecce will not make this game easy for Udinese and I wouldn’t bet against Di Michele scoring against his old team. However, Udinese really should outscore Lecce today and odds of 4/5 on them winning this game, given that they can play their lethal counter-attacking game, makes the away win very tempting indeed today.
Team news – Lecce miss Ofere, Giuliatto, and Giacomazzi whereas Udinese miss Pinzi and Angella.
Verdict: Udinese to win at 4/5.
Additional games
Randers vs SonderjyskE – home win at 9/10.
Randers are back! Oh yeah! Their mid-season signings in attack have worked beautifully for the sleeping giants and they’ve now banged in seven goals in three games. They under-performed at AC Horsens last match in a droll 0-0 draw but they were immense before that and should be again today if the likes of Kristensen and Fejzullahu continue to trouble opposing sides. Ex-Brondby winger Jonas Camper is in excellent form and now that Randers finally have a credible attack, they’re a side to be feared again because on their day, this side can keep a clean sheet against anyone else in the Superligaen. Momentum favours the hosts here and I do too.
Visitors SonderjyskE also strengthened over the window, however, signing a whole host of attacking talent. They defeated a fairly depleted Midtylland side last match 2-1 and they also bring momentum into this game as a result, especially now young striker Frederiksen is back in their ranks. Kucukovic, Fabricius, and Skulason are all dangerous players and thus SonderjyskE are also a side to be taken seriously as their defence can be rock-solid too. However, since Ottesen’s departure last season, SonderjyskE haven’t been as assured at the back and I think this is the kind of game where it’ll show.
SonderjyskE haven’t beaten Randers in four consecutive meetings now. In fact, they’ve not won here since 1999 so they know how hard this game is. Atypically, this game is a stonewall 0-0 but both sides have changed since their last meeting; both are much more attacking and adventurous and as a result, I’d be surprised to see this game go under 2.5 goals today. However, for me, the value is in a Randers win at 9/10. They have better attacking players than SonderjyskE and frankly, they’re a better side than their opponents. Randers could and should be priced shorter than this but I presume that their displays earlier this season are to blame for long odds and thus the bookies haven’t taken into account how good this side actually is. For me, Randers to win this game at 9/10 is good value today.
Verdict: Randers to win at 9/10.
AB Copenhagen vs Roskilde – home win at evens.
I cannot help but feel that this game is entirely priced on the current league placing of both sides in Division 1 because AB Copenhagen are a lot better than Roskilde! There’s a very good reason that AB have beaten Roskilde in five out of their last six meetings (drawing the other) and it’s quite simply because they’re a bigger and a better team. Let’s not forget that Roskilde were only promoted to this division last season and it shows in games against the bigger sides. You can look at Roskilde’s record and be amazed that they’ve only lost four away games this season or you can break it down to the basics; they’ve only played one good side away from home – HB Koge – and they lost that game. They’ve not faced AGF Aarhus, Vejle, or today’s hosts AB Copenhagen yet so there’s still a lot more to discover about Roskilde that I think we’ll get a good insight into today.
AB Copenhagen have had a bizarre amount of trouble winning home games this season and I’m not entirely sure why as they continue to win games away from home instead. However, this is their first home game since the winter break so I fancy them to approach it with gusto today. Roskilde can be a handful, don’t get me wrong, but the quality gap between the two sides should be evident today and evens is too long on an AB Copenhagen win at home, in my view.
Verdict: AB Copenhagen to win at evens.
Emelec Guayaquil vs Deportivo Cuenca – home win at 4/5.
Emelec Guayaquil are the next side I’ve selected to capitalise on Deportivo Cuenca’s side given that the visitors were forced into selling some good players at the start of the season due to financial problems. Atypically, there’s only a handful of Ecuadorian sides that can capitalise on it because Cuenca are still a decent side but Emelec Guayaquil are definitely one of them. Emelec are not a potent side but they’re a side that loves to control possession and win games 1-0 or 2-1 during the rare time that they concede goals. They’ve won five out of five at home in Primera A this season whilst averaging scoring over two goals per home game, which is impressive as they’re not a gifted attacking side, in my view. They’ve balanced it well considering their Copa Libertadores commitments and I expect to see more of the same tonight. Cuenca still aren’t an easy side to face as they do still have a decent team but Emelec are entering this game on the back of four straight wins whereas Cuenca’s resistance was shattered last match as they were defeated 0-2 by Liga de Quito so I think this game is nicely poised for a home win.
Verdict: Emelec Guayaquil to win at 4/5.
Universidad San Martin vs Leon de Huanuco – home win with -1.5 handicap at 31/20.
The odds are ridiculously long on this selection and I’ve no idea why! Universidad San Martin have had a bad domestic campaign, sure, but that’s because they’ve focused on the Copa Libertadores by resting players in domestic games. Now they face Leon de Huanuco with no Copa Libertadores game for another couple of weeks at least and they’ve had over a week to recover from their trip to Mexico where they lost 3-1 against San Luis. Their morale isn’t great currently as they’re struggling in the Copa Libertadores but they’re at home and they’re always strong there. They’ve got a lot of good players that finally have the platform on which they can begin to play well and I thoroughly expect to see that tonight from the reigning champions of Peru.
Visitors Leon de Huanuco have been hopeless both domestically and on the continent this season due to important player sales pre-season, losing approximately half of the team that got them into the Copa Libertadores in the first place. They don’t score enough goals and they’re often torn apart at the back so it’s hard to take them seriously currently. Their predominant strength is that their home games are played at high altitude but away from home it becomes a big weakness for obvious reasons as they struggle to adapt to a lower altitude. The visitors have lost three out of their last four games, the most recent of which was during a trip to Bolivia in the Copa Libertadores so morale is low in their camp currently and that won’t help them as they face arguably the best side in Peru.
Neither side is firing on all cylinders and I cannot stress enough that this is a risky call from that perspective. However, the quality difference between these two sides is large, in my view, and therefore the -1.5 handicap price really appeals to me, especially knowing how poor Leon de Huanuco are at lower altitudes and how impotent their attack tends to be.
Verdict: Universidad San Martin to beat the -1.5 handicap at 31/20.
Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia Bialystok – home win with -1.5 handicap at 2/1.
Wisla Krakow have crucially passed fit defensive duo Paljic and Cikos for this game, which steadies the ship at the back. That’s particularly important given that Bosnia-Herzegovina defender Bunoza has broken his leg and won’t feature for some time but as it happens, Wisla have a good defence today.
Indeed, goalkeeper Pareiko demonstrated his ability at international level lately, being voted man of the match in Estonia’s game against Serbia so he’ll be brimming with confidence today. Wisla Krakow have been very driven lately as it is but having seen Legia Warsaw throw a lead away yesterday and Lech Poznan drop points in a 2-2 thriller against Slask Wroclaw, they have to be even further motivated against Jagiellonia today. Their opponents will be eight points behind Wisla if they lose this game and to be honest, Jagiellonia really need to win this game to have any chance of winning the Ekstraklasa. However, since Grosicki’s departure, Frankowski has looked very isolated in attack and it’s proving to be a real problem for today’s visitors. Frankowski will be isolated today if they try their usual 4-4-2 as they’ll need someone to drop deep to help stifle Wisla’s 4-3-3 and that just won’t suit ageing Frankowski at all. The ex-Wisla Krakow legend would love to score against his old club but will he be able to today? I doubt it. His ability isn’t in question but the support to him certainly is. Jagiellonia should have their hands full at the other end as they try to handle the frightening threesome of Malecki, Meliksson, and Genkov with the former two providing the pace and the third being the target man. Consider the support they get from Slovenian midfielder Kirm and midfielder Wilk whilst Sobolewski sits in front of the back four and you have arguably the best side in Poland at the moment and Jagiellonia therefore have every right to be afraid of the daunting trip to Reymonta today.
Wisla Krakow have already won seven out of nine Ekstraklasa home games this season whilst averaging scoring over two goals per home game in front of their demanding crowd so I expect more of the same today. Helpfully, Jagiellonia are missing their best defender Cionek and his experienced compatriot at the back Hermes for this game. Jagiellonia’s only way of generating points on the road is via solid defending because their tactical approach doesn’t work in attack away from home as they leave Frankowski too isolated. However, given that they’re missing important defenders today and the same problems in attack are likely to occur, I cannot help but feel that Wisla will add to Jagiellonia’s recent woes by winning here.
Most people are happy with 4/6 on the home win, which is fair enough – it really should come in. However, I’m happy to take the -1.5 handicap at a very generous 2/1 as Wisla are a very good side in good form and Jagiellonia are over-achieving and not scoring goals. That in itself is a good foundation for the bet but with Jagiellonia missing two important defenders here, I think it’s definitely worth a punt to take Wisla -1.5 at 2/1 here.
Team news – Wisla Krakow miss Boguski and Boukhari whereas Jagiellonia Bialystok miss Cionek, Hermes, El Mehdi, Grzelak, and Makuszewski.
Verdict: Wisla Krakow to beat the -1.5 handicap at 2/1.
Audax Italiano vs Colo Colo – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
These odds look way too generous to me. This game has gone well over 2.5 goals for the last three years that it’s been played with both sides playing attacking, vibrant football with no care for defending and I expect more of the same tonight. Audax Italiano are definitely the more “samba” of these two sides but Colo Colo are more than capable of matching them on their day for goalscoring ability and a rare inability to defend! Colo Colo may well have their eyes on the trip to Brazil in a few days to face Santos so could rest players here, which would suit Audax Italiano. However, given that neither side can defend for shit and that both sides attack recklessly, this game looks a nailed over 2.5 goals game in my eyes at surprisingly generous odds.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.