TFT Issue 68!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
There’s some absolute beauties to bet on today – I was like a kid in a sweetshop with the below games! Hopefully you guys will win a packet from them!
Featured game
Steaua Bucharest vs Unirea Urziceni – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Romanian Liga game between giants Steaua Bucharest and relegation-threatened Unirea Urziceni. Neither side is having the best of times this season and both will undoubtedly be glad to see it end but I do have some interest in this game nonetheless.
Steaua’s problems stem from one man; Gigi, their chairman. The eccentric nutcase buys and sells as he sees fit, not to mention hiring and firing managers. A more ardent Steaua fan you’d struggle to find but I can’t say that his influence on Steaua is particularly good!
Nonetheless, I do fancy Steaua here. Their latest appointment in charge was ex-CFR Cluj boss Cartu. He’s restored order to the team and they look a lot better for it. They’ve held off both Vaslui and Poli Timisoara in their last two games and although Steaua might be the bigger name of those three sides, I’d argue that both of the sides they faced are marginally better than the current Steaua crop so the results were good, in my eyes. Steaua’s biggest problem this season has been scoring goals. They cleverly(!) decided to sell Colombian star Moreno back in April 2010 but you could understand that as they did have Kapetanos and an emerging Stancu, who needed games to further his potential. However, Steaua sold Kapetanos to CFR Cluj in January and with Stancu having also left to work for Hagi at Galatasaray, Steaua’s attack was rendered largely redundant. They’ve signed Burdujan and Oliveira too replace them both but I’m not convinced on a quality basis that those two have what it takes. However, with Cartu in charge, things are starting to fall into place and his next area of concern is attack so I expect a much better Steaua display today in front of goal. They’ve got the midfield to create the chances with Nicolita and Brandan on the flanks and Ricardo through the middle, although they do miss Tanase today. Steaua have enough in the afore-mentioned players to score a couple of goals on their day and they really should today.
From the above paragraph, it’s easy to see that the majority of my faith is with the opponents fucking up rather than their hosts blasting them into outer space, which is perfectly true. In the average game, Steaua would do well to score two goals nowadays. However, this absolutely isn’t the average game, hence my interest.
Unirea were a force in Romania until their chairman left and thus all their money went and so did their players. That’s why they’re now second from bottom in the Liga table and to be honest, they’re living on borrowed time. Unirea’s backbone is now comprised largely of loan players from some of the bigger clubs in the division whilst merging them with their own academy players. It’s a sad state of affairs for a once promising club but that’s how football goes, sometimes. The predominant part of my interest in this game stems from the players that Unirea have brought in on loan because they loaned five of them from Steaua Bucharest, whom they face today. The interest I have in that is that none of them are allowed to play in this game as per the contractual agreement and thus an inexperienced, unfamiliar, and youthful Unirea side with no depth whatsoever now misses five important players. Admittedly, a couple haven’t been there too long now but they’re some of the best players that they currently have. Midfielder Muzac has been a regular ever since he was loaned, Lupu, Mustafa, and Tosca are all important defenders, especially the former and the latter, and even Onicas has been playing a lot lately in midfield. Unirea cannot afford these absences – you can see how easily they’re destoyed away from home with these players, let alone without them!
Therefore, I’m sure you can appreciate why the handicap appeals to me today. Steaua need the breaks to score the goals but they’ll get them today with a leaky Unirea side missing half their defence. Unirea have already lost eight out of eleven on the road so far this season due to averaging scoring the fewest away goals in the Liga (less than a goal per every two away games!) and because they average conceding nearly two goals per away game. It’s not a good record to bring to a Steaua Bucharest side that are ominously getting better in each game and when you consider that Unirea have lost by the -1.5 goal handicap for two consecutive away games against Universitatea Cluj (4-2) and Vaslui (2-0) respectively, you have to consider the possibility that Steaua will achieve the same feat today. For me, the handicap is far more focused on Steaua’s impotence in front of goal this season and not enough on who Unirea are missing. Taking the handicap option at evens really appeals to me here.
Team news – Steaua Bucharest miss Radut and Tanase whereas Unirea Urziceni miss Lupu, Muzac, Tosca, Mustafa, and Onicas.
Verdict: Steaua Bucharest to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Additional games
Independiente vs Liga de Quito – home win at 4/5.
Independiente have finally started putting effort back into their Copa Libertadores games and they do have a chance of qualification so they’ll be motivated here, especially after a decent run of late. They only miss Defederico for this game and as they’re unbeaten in five consecutive games, they’re not a side to take lightly anymore. They’ve played with great spirit lately and Independiente’s behind-the-scenes staff have been quite intelligent by bringing past greats to the stadium during games to motivate the fans and inspire the players, which looks to have worked. They won a vital game 1-2 last match at Gimnasia De la Plata and that gives them great confidence here so I think they’ll do well.
Liga de Quito are often vastly overrated by people because they won the Copa Libertadores once. They’re definitely a side to heed, I agree, but only in Ecuador. There simply isn’t a side that monopolises the altitude advantage more than Liga de Quito do in their home games, hence their astounding home record. However, the fact is that they’re a rather average side by South American standards and that’s exposed during their away games. They’ve lost their last five away games in the Copa Libertadores, scoring in just one of them. In fact, they’ve not won an away game in the Copa Libertadores or the Copa Sudamericana in their last twenty-one attempts, which backs up my point perfectly. They miss a couple of semi-decent players tonight but the big news is that Caicedo is a doubt at the back. He says he’s fit but the manager makes the decision here. Liga de Quito need him in defence to have any chance here and I just don’t think he’ll be risked, not with the big derby at Deportivo Quito looming large in a few days time. Let’s bear in mind that even if Liga de Quito do win this game – they still qualify if they win their last group game at home to Godoy Cruz de Mendoza, which they absolutely will win.
Therefore, I have to take the odds on Independiente as something of a gift here. Independiente look to want it more and for me, backing them to win against poor-travelling Liga de Quito at 4/5 really appeals to me tonight.
Team news – Independiente miss Defederico whereas Liga de Quito miss Norberto Araujo and Miller Bolanos whilst having doubts over Geovanni Caicedo and Dida.
Verdict: Independiente to win at 4/5.
Siauliai vs Levadia Tallinn – home win at 6/4.
Ah, the beloved Baltic League returns at long last! Few bookies will give you a market on it but happily, Bet365 is happy to slap odds on any game, even those they know nothing about – like this one!
Siauliai have developed an awful lot over the past year or two and most Lithuanian experts feel they’ll claim third place in A Lyga this season and I don’t see why not as Zalgiris Vilnius aren’t anything special anymore. Siauliai are generally a very well-organised and consistent side, which makes them dangerous as not many Lithuanian sides are. Their weakness is that they’re a rather youthful team so they do lack a bit of experience here and there. However, the signings of Brazilian full-back Juvenal from Naftan Novopolotsk in Belarus and midfielder Leliuga from HB Koge in Demnark’s Division 1 signals their intent and they have to be taken seriously nowadays – only Suduva Marijampole and Ekranas Panevezys are better than they are in Lithuania.
My confidence still largely stems from Levadia Tallinn’s desolate squad, of course. They finally got a long overdue defeat at home to Nomme Kalju last match and that may well burst the dam because they don’t have a strong squad anymore. Nahk in midfield is still outstanding despite his advancing years and Teniste and Volodin do a good job in defence. However, that’s literally all that remains there nowadays with Morozov not quite ready yet and the rest of the team largely kids. All their potency has gone with their sales and that’s shown a lot in the Meistriliiga with just six goals scored in five games, three of which were against newly-promoted, shitty Ajax Lasnamae. Let’s not forget that their Lithuanian defender Sarunas used to play for Klaipeda and their Lithuanian attacker Mizigurskis used to play for Banga Gargzdai so Siauliai know how to play against these guys and given that both are rather important to Levadia nowadays…
I can’t possibly comment on how seriously both sides are going to take this game – that’s the danger here. I can only presume that Levadia must focus themselves domestically or they’ll not get into Europe to recoup some of their lost money whereas Siauliai as a town have pumped a lot of money into their local teams in all sports so I think they’ll really try to make their mark in this tournament. For me, the home win at 6/4 looks a steal here.
Verdict: Siauliai to win at 6/4.
Skonto Riga vs Ekranas Panevezys – away win at 7/4.
This one is slightly more dubious than the above as these two sides are arguably the two best in the Baltic states. However, I think there’s value on backing the Lithuanian champions Ekranas in this game in Latvia. Why?
Well, as good as Skonto Riga are, they don’t score many goals in this competition; I’ve never managed to work out why, to be honest! They’ve had the necessary firepower in Nathan Junior, Pereplotkins, and emerging talent Karasauskas. However, pacey Pereplotkins departed to try his hand in Uzbekistan back in February and considering that they also lost star midfielder Cauna to CSKA Moscow back in January, it’s fair to expect Skonto’s attack to have suffered. They’ve only played one competitive game since then and their lack of creativity showed against Daugava Daugavpils in the Latvijas Kauss, drawing 0-0 before crashing out on penalties. Don’t get me wrong here – Daugava are a very solid defensive unit but Skonto have always found a way past them before but not this time. Nathan Junior is an excellent talent and so it young Karasauskas, who will surely become the next Pahars or Rudnevs if he carries on! However, they’re not the side that they were when they beat Ekranas in a friendly back in January and I thoroughly expect it to show here.
Ekranas have been a dominant side in these parts for some years now due to some financial backing, determination, but most of all – consistency. Where Skonto Riga have struggled, Ekranas have succeded, winning all four of their competitive games played thus far, scoring twelve goals and conceding zero goals. They’ve played some crap sides, don’t get me wrong, but the trip to Siauliai is not an easy one anymore but Ekranas made it look so. They only really lost midfielder Galkevicius to Zaglebie Lubin in Poland over the season break but that’s been handled well as they signed very experienced midfielder Joskas from Belshina in Belarus. They’ve also acquired experienced Dedura in defence from Salyut Belgorod in Russia as they continue to strengthen their squad both with experience and ability and for me, Ekranas are very well placed to win this game.
Ekranas have won their last two trips to Latvia in this competition whereas Skonto drew their last home game with a Lithuanian side in this competition 0-0 (Tauras Taurage last year) whilst having previously lost 1-2 at home to FBK Kaunas of Lithuania a couple of years before. Lithuanian football is marginally ahead of Latvian football and with the above in mind, I think Ekranas are worth a shot at such long odds.
Verdict: Ekranas Panevezys to win at 7/4.