TFT Issue 69!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Jaguares vs Internacional – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Today’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores game in Mexico between Jaguares and Brazilian giants Internacional. The hosts are notorious for not scoring goals whereas their opponents are amongst the favourites to lift the trophy of South America’s most prestigious competition this year so there’s certainly a gap to be exploited here.
Jaguares don’t score goals, first of all. Their best striker is Martinez and he’s bagged two goals this season, which speaks volumes, really. Jaguares are carried far too often by Uruguyan attacking midfielder Rodriguez and Mexican midfielder Valdez. Martinez, Salazar, Hernandez – they’re decent when they choose to be, which isn’t often. The loan signing of Manso from Pachuca was a good move as he’s a good playmaker but again, Jaguares have real problems putting the ball in the net and that should be very evident tonight. They’ve bagged four goals in four games in the Copa Libertadores thus far and no disrespect to Emelec Guayaquil or Jorge Wilstermann (the two sides that Jaguares scored against, both of which were in home games in Mexico) but they’re not Internacional. Jaguares were flattened 4-0 in Brazil in the reversal of this fixture and although I’d be surprised to see the same scoreline tonight, I wouldn’t rule out a narrow Internacional win. Jaguares do bring momentum into this game following a 3-1 win against high-flying Pumas UNAM at weekend and thus they will try and give Internacional a game but they’re just not a particularly good side, in all honesty, and they finally have a home game in which it should show.
Visitors Internacional are playing really well in this tournament and their new signings have gelled even quicker than I’d initially anticipated that they would. They’ve got a superb midfield and good attack, not to mention a decent defence. I think they’ve got a terrific chance of winning the Copa Libertadores as long as domestic committments don’t get in the way and they should deliver a title-winning display tonight, in my eyes.
But Internacional should beat Jaguares, right? They’re the better side, after all. Well, that is true – they are better by some way, in fact. However, South American doesn’t work like most other regions for football – there’s another factor that must be taken into consideration called “altitude” and there are few more severe cases of that than tonight. Jaguares play at somewhere around 3500 feet above sea level and that basically means that for every one breath you take normally, you’d have to take three at such a height, hence the difficulty of playing in such conditions, and hence why I am not entering the 1×2 market here whatsoever.
A draw here takes Internacional through. Are they going to bust a gut at nightmare altitude to win the game? I doubt it. In all honesty, a draw here should win them the group as I don’t see Emelec winning in Bolivia against Jorge Wilstermann and even if they did – Internacional will batter them in Brazil in the last game. Therefore, I don’t think Internacional are going to care very much about this game and I don’t think they’re going to wildly attack to try and win it. The onus is really on Jaguares to attack, which is perfect because they’re not very good at it.
I can’t deny it, guys – these odds are beautiful in my eyes! Generally, when I have such confidence in tips, it tends to mean that they’ll fuck up but I absolutely love this one. The better side doesn’t have to win; a draw is fine. The altitude favours the hosts, who don’t score goals, and thus neither side is likely to score. Under 2.5 goals should not be as generous as 3/4 here, in my view.
Team news – Jaguares miss Ismael Fuentes and Antonio Pedroza whereas Independiente miss Gonzalo Sorondo.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Additional games
Union Espanola vs Caracas – lay Union Espanola at 11/10.
I’m absolutely loving the odds on Caracas in the Copa Libertadores so far as they’re conistently underrated purely because they’re from Venezuela.
Union Espanola have played in six Copa Libertadores games this season during their first continental tournament since 2006. Have they impressed? Well, not really. They’ve won just two of those games; one was a narrow away win in Bolivia against Bolivar La Paz and the other was a somewhat unorthodox home win against Velez Sarsfield of Arentina. Either side of those games, they’ve been held to a goalless draw at home to Bolivar La Paz, been held to a 2-2 draw at home by fellow countrymen Universidad Catolica, lost 2-1 in Argentina against Velez Sarsfield, and lost 2-0 in Venezuela against Caracas in the reversal of this fixture. Union Espanola are a decent side but they’re nothing more than that, especially when it comes to goalscoring, so I can’t really accept the short odds on the home win tonight.
Visitors Caracas have done nothing but impress me this year. They’ve ceased being a defensive side and started attacking a lot more. Don’t get me wrong – they’re not going to win the tournament – but they’re still capable of causing a few shocks here and there. They beat Union Espanola 2-0 at home before winning 1-3 in Chile against Universidad Catolica and I wouldn’t hesitate to say that Universidad Catolica are better than Union Espanola. Caracas do miss Panamanian playmaker Barahona through suspension for this game but aside from that they bring a full squad to Chile for this game. Star striker Cabezas has had a lot of fun since signing for Caracas and especially so alongside promising seventeen year old striker Josef Martinez as Caracas look to build for the future. They’re a decent unit, Caracas, and although they can occasionally capitulate, their financial backing makes them a stronger side than people consider them to be.
Whether this tip wins or not, the fact remains that Caracas are simply not an easy side to beat nowadays. The 3-0 defeat in Argentina against Velez Sarsfield really flattered the hosts despite facing ten men for the majority of that game. Caracas are a very hard side to beat because they score goals, unlike their Venezuelan counterparts ala Deportivo Tachira and Deportivo Italia. Caracas have a very good chance of scoring at least one goal in Chile tonight and if they do that then I don’t see the hosts winning this game because they don’t score enough goals. For me, there’s value in laying inexperienced Union Espanola against experienced Caracas at 11/10 with the above in mind.
Team news – Caracas miss Barahona.
Verdict: Lay Union Espanola at 11/10.
Gomel vs Dnepr Mogilev – home win at 13/10.
Gomel got at good result at Atlant in Novopolotsk last match and I think they can reproduce that type of display in their first home game of the Vysshaya Liga. They bring good firepower into this game with Zuev, Aleksievich, Platonov, and Lyasyuk and with the experience of the likes of Stepanov and Levitski in their ranks, I fancy a strong Gomel display today, just as we’ve witnessed for some weeks now in the Belarusian Cup. Their top goalscorer last season Platonov should be an interesting one to watch this season but the big name of today’s game is undoubtedly Lyasyuk, whom newly-promoted Gomel signed from Dnepr Mogilev a few months ago. He’ll know his old team-mates inside out and with Gomel on such a rich vein of goalscoring form, I have to give them a shot here.
Dnepr Mogilev have long been a fairly predictable away side by not scoring enough goals and I doubt that’s changed over the last few months. Dnepr Mogilev just win their home games from time to time but having seen their “players sold” list, I’m not convinced they’ll even stay up this season. Midfielders Karpovich left for Vorskla Poltava, Bychenok left for Dinamo Minsk, and Tupchiy left for Vitebsk. In addition to that, striker Turlin moved to Belshina and Yurchanka left for Shakhtyor Soligorsk, not to mention Lyasyuk going to today’s hosts Gomel! The word “weak” does not even begin to describe this current Dnepr Mogilev squad, which partially explains why FC Minsk won in Mogilev 0-2 so easily last match despite having ten men for a large portion of the game.
Gomel’s defence can be susceptible (although I expect Estonian lynchpin Stepanov to sort that out ultimately) but their attack is unquestionably strong. This side annihlated Division 1 last season to get promoted, winning twenty-seven games out of thirty. They’re a much better side than the bookies give them credit for and for me, the home win at 13/10 is a bargain.
Verdict: Gomel to win at 13/10.