TFT Issue 70!
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Featured game
Jorge Wilstermann vs Emelec Guayaquil – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Today’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores encounter in Bolivia between Jorge Wilstermann and Emelec Guayaquil of Ecuador.
Hosts Jorge Wilstermann are barely recognisable from the side that they were last season. That’s not a figure of speech, either – they’re literally a bunch of randomly assembled individuals, most of which were already plying their trade in Bolivia already. After Jorge Wilstermann’s relegation, almost all of their first-team players left the club, signing for rival clubs and other local teams. Jorge Wilstermann can still attack to a decent degree, surprisingly, but they still lack a cutting edge in front of goal. They’re not reliable in any part of their team but their altitude advantage of playing at around 2500 feet above sea level in Cochabamba is a hefty one to counter and should prove pivotal here. Only Internacional have managed to take their games with Jorge Wilstermann over 2.5 goals out of the four games that the Bolivian misfits have played so the hosts shouldn’t be totally written off here.
The other side of the coin is that as experienced and able as Emelec Guayaquil are, they’re simply not a goalscoring side. They’ve not scored more than a single goal in a Copa Libertadores game in their last eight attempts and I expect the same tonight. They’re missing number one goalkeeper Klimowicz, experienced defender Freitas, and regular midfielders Mendez and Morante so Emelec aren’t as well-placed as they’d like to be to win this vital game. The altitude makes this a hard game as it is and ex-Velez Sarsfield striker (now manager) Omar Asad knows it. Four out of Emelec’s last six away games in the Copa Libertadores have gone under 2.5 goals following experienced defensive displays but somewhat ineffectual attacking displays and that’s exactly what I expect from them tonight. There’s no doubt at all that Emelec are the better of these two sides but we’re playing at an altitude level where that shouldn’t be anywhere near as evident. Emelec are missing important players, too, so even laying them looks intriguing at 11/10.
Nonetheless, my main call is under 2.5 goals here. Jorge Wilstermann have nothing to gain and nothing to lose as they fight for respect whereas the visitors need to avoid defeat here, preferably winning the game. Neither side scores or concedes many goals without facing good opponents and with Emelec missing four regular starters tonight and the game being played in tough conditions, my call is under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Team news – Emelec Guayaquil miss Javier Klimowicz, Marcelo Freitas, Edison Mendez, and Eduardo Morante.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.