TFT Issue 71!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
The bin
Eintracht Franfurt vs Werder Bremen – away win at 6/4.
Was quite happy with this until I recalled that Pizarro was absent through injury. Bremen miss a whole host of players through injury as it is, and as they have for most of the season. However, they’ve coped well lately and won at two of the best home sides in the Bundesliga in quick succession lately, which made them a good side to back here. However, without Pizarro, they have no target man and that leaves me with great doubts over their ability to win this game, especially considering that the hosts have a new manager. Therefore, big “avoid” for me.
Featured game
Stabaek vs Valerenga Oslo – away win at 6/4.
Today’s featured game is the Eliteserien encounter between Stabaek and Valerenga Oslo.
Hosts Stabaek have shown two very contradictory displays thus far this season with a 0-7 defeat against Lillestrom at hom and a 1-2 win at Rosenborg BK last match, both of which were very strange results indeed. Stabaek lost manager Jan Jonssen to Rosenborg BK pre-season so perhaps the win at Rosenborg BK is not so surprising but it’s Stabaek’s overall displays that are rather confusing. One thing is for sure, however, and that’s that they’re never an easy side to face at the Telenor Arena. Stabaek’s home games are played at this indoor venue on artificial turf so you can see why they usually have a big advantge here. However, Jonssen’s departure coupled with Nannskog’s retirement isn’t a good combination and now that Stabaek are still missing number one goalkeeper Knudsen through injury as their team seeks to get used to one another again under new stewardship, this Stabaek side is not particularly strong currently. They have good players ala Icelandic striker Gunnarsson and holding midfielder Farnerud, for example. However, I can’t rate this side at all until they develop some consistency and although I don’t like going against them at the Telenor Arena, I can’t help but do so today.
Visitors Valerenga Oslo have been excellent so far this season too, which helps my tip massively. They’ve played confidently and efficiently in their two Eliteserien games thus far, winning both of them rather easily. Although Jamaican striker Shelton is still absent through injury – when isn’t he injured?! – they still have Ivorian attacker Kone, emerging youngster Havard Nielsen, and experienced Morten Berre so they have more than enough firepower to do damage here. There’s a lot of experience and ability in midfield and with Stoor, Muri, and Hirschfeld in the back five, they have more than enough Eliteserien experience to keep clean sheets too, just as they have in their previous two Eliteserien games. Valerenga keep the ball well and play attractive attacking football and we should expect a very strong campaign from them this time around, albeit with the damaging departure of Abdellaoue in attack last season.
Valerenga don’t have a good record here which indicates two things; one is that the Telenor Arena is a hard away game and the other is that Stabaek are not a bad side at all so do approach with caution here. However, Valerenga do have a better side than Stabaek currently and with the hosts far from consistent in any part of their team whereas their visitors look very strong indeed, the odds of 6/4 on the away win intrigue me here.
Team news – Stabaek miss Knudsen whereas Valerenga Oslo miss Shelton
Verdict: Valerenga Oslo to win at 6/5.
Additional games
Inter Zapresic vs Sibenik – home win at 4/5.
Hosts Inter Zapresic have leapt from relegation-battlers to UEFA Europa League place contenders in the Prva Liga in somewhat startling fashion. The hosts have already won six out of eleven at home this season but their away record is also surprisingly strong when you consider that they’re not one of the better sides in Croatia. Zapresic have lost four home games this season, admittedly, but considering that one was on the opening day of the season against Slaven Koprivnica, two were against giants Hajduk Split and Dinamo Zagreb respectively, and the other was a bizarre 0-2 defeat against NK Zagreb lately, I don’t think that their home defeats are a regular thing at all. Indeed, it takes a strong side to win here and with Zapresic having won two out of their last three games, bagging seven times along the way, you have to fancy them to use their momentum here to make it count.
However, a large portion of my confidence comes from the problems that Sibenik have at the moment. Their players rebelled lately as they’ve not been paid for a long time and ended up going on strike until something was sorted. During the commotion, number one goalkeeper Blazevic said he no longer wanted to be captain of the team, causing further disarray. After many meetings behind closed doors, Sibenik finally agreed to start training again but they are far from happy and far from united currently, irrespective of their recent good run of form. In addition to the above, they miss one of their main strikers Jakolis through suspension today and that is a hefty blow for the visitors.
Considering that Inter Zapresic have played two low-key friendlies lately and eased to victory in both of them whereas Sibenik can barely finish a training session without striking, I have to fancy the hosts here. They’re over-achieving and the visitors are under-achieving this season so do approach with caution. However, as long as the odds don’t drop, I think there’s value in the home win at 4/5.
Team news – Sibenik miss Jakolis.
Verdict: Inter Zapresic to win at 4/5.
Polonia Warsaw vs Lech Poznan – home win at 11/8.
Hosts Polonia Warsaw finally won a game last match, winning 1-3 in Kielce against Korona in a result that saw the Korona manager fired. Polonia Warsaw’s appointment of Zielinski as manager appears to have paid dividends, at least for the present time, although you can be sure that Wolakiewicz will almost certainly fire him in the near future if his Polonia Warsaw team simply draw a game due to his eccentric nature. Polonia Warsaw have some of the best players in the Ekstraklasa but it’s hard to forge an understanding with their manager changing almost on a weekly basis. Zielinski has made this side his own already, however, in a very brief time. One of Zielinski’s first moves was to recall the ousted Smolarek and he scored last match so you can see what Zielinski has done to this uncertain side. Sobiech is finally back and as one of Poland’s most promising strikers, you have to fear this Polonia attack if they’re playing well, which you have to expect them to following a strong display in Kielce last match. They do miss promising defender Sadlok today but can replace him with Kokoszka so it’s not a tremendous loss. Therefore, Polonia Warsaw bring strong momentum into this game and with almost a full squad at Zielinski’s disposal, I fancy the home win here.
It aids my cause that sleeping giants Lech Poznan miss Latvian starlet Rudnevs in attack. They still have some creative players in attack like Krivets and Stilic but with Rudnevs absent, Peszko having departed for Koln, and new Serbian striker Ubiparip yet to adjust, this Lech side is far from complete currently. Slusarski is an experienced Ekstraklasa striker and he’ll aid their cause this season but I’d not say that they’re a special side at the moment. In addition to the above, this is Lech’s third game in seven days and considering the end-to-end game against Slask Wroclaw (ended 2-2) and the deflating draw with Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala (ended 1-1 due to last minute equaliser for the visitors) last match in the Puchar Polski were both played on a shoddy Poznan pitch (as it’s being relaid), it’s fair to expect a disjointed Lech display today. I don’t see them threatening consistently without Rudnevs and I think they’ll be tired for this game, hence me not rating their chances.
However, the best part of it all is that Lech’s manager is Zielinski. He was the one that won Lech the Ekstraklasa title last year and he built that team so he knows exactly what his Polonia team are up against. Zielinksi will most likely still be angry at his dismissal from the Lech job and may seek revenge here. Either way, he knows this Lech side inside out so my call is a generously-priced home win at 11/8.
Team news – Polonia Warsaw miss Sadlok whereas Lech Poznan miss Rudnevs whilst having doubts over Kikut and Kielb.
Verdict: Polonia Warsaw to win at 11/8.