TFT Issue 75!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Barcelona – away win at 5/4.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League encounter in Ukraine between Shakhtar Donetsk and Barcelona. Hosts Shakhtar were crushed 5-1 in Barcelona as their Catalan hosts ran riot and although a similar scoreline tonight would surprise me, I still fancy Barcelona to win the game.
Hosts Shakhtar Donetsk are a good side; there’s no doubt about that. They have some marvellous passers of the ball and generally have a gifted midfield. They’ve got options in attack and a secure defence so they’re a side to be taken seriously. Rinat Akmetov’s millions has finally turned Shakhtar Donetsk into a European power, in my view, and they’ll remain there for years to come.
However, let’s put things into perspective here. Shakhtar are very much a budding team with a rather youthful edge to them. That inexperienced was highlighted especially well in Barcelona against the European giants, as was their lack of a holding midfielder. Additionally, Shakhtar were wasteful in front of goal and carved apart rather easily by a frankly superior Barcelona side. You can tell how badly they were affected by the scoreline in Spain as they were defeated 0-1 at home against the ten men of Obolon Kiev. Morale is low and Shakhtar are not used to being in this position and thus I think they’ll struggle tonight.
To further the above point, let’s focus on Shakhtar’s defence. They build their defence around Chygrynskiy, which makes sense as he’s the best defender in Eastern Europe. However, he’s struggled with injuries of late and misses this game. When Shakhtar miss him, they’re vulnerable in defence, just like Barcelona are without Puyol. That’s one obstacle for Shakhtar already! However, things have gotten worse the Ukrainian giants as captain and influential right-back Darijo Srna was ruled out of this game through suspension, as was Romanian left-back Razvan Rat. Experienced Kucher and back-up defender Chizhov also miss this game and to be honest, that’s basically all of Shakhtar’s defence gone for this game. What’s their defence going to be – some bizarre combination of Hubschman, Rakitskiy, Ischenko, and Shevchuk?! In a word; no chance. They’ll get ripped apart here and that is a point for a concern.
Shakhtar still have the vast majority of their attack available and given that Barcelona are still missing Puyol, I’m confident that Shakhtar will score at somepoint, even though striker Luiz Adriano is a doubt tonight. However, they’re not as clinical in the big games as they should be and as it cost them in Spain, I think it’s reasonable to expect it to cost them again tonight.
The venue is the Donbass Arena, which is the most beautiful stadium in Europe for me. It’s in a great location and has a superb pitch, which aids Shakhtar’s Barcelona-esque style of football against the lesser sides, hence their continued success in Ukraine. However, as good as it is for them most of the time, it should work against them tonight. A Dynamo Kiev-esque pitch would suit the hosts far more here because Barcelona find it hard to play their passing game on a rough pitch due to long ball not being an option for them. However, Shakhtar’s pitch is in pristine condition and that really should suit Barcelona far more than Shakhtar because they’re simply a better side.
Therefore, I’m leaning heavily towards a Barcelona win here already. They don’t have to win the game, of course. People are also suggesting that Barcelona may have half an eye on “El Clasico” at weekend against Real Madrid and I’d partially agree with that; I think some big names here may be rested. However, there are rules in European football that prevent Barcelona from fielding a full “B” team here – a number of first-team players have to play in this game and therefore Barcelona should have more than enough firepower here to shatter a vulnerable Shakhtar defence.
Don’t get me wrong here – I do think that Barcelona will concede here as no Puyol means that they’re shambolic at the back. However, their attacking ability is unrivalled and irrespective of who they field, I still think they’ll win this game tonight. They don’t have to win it but when have you ever seen Barcelona sit back and defend? It’s not in their nature to do it; they play to attack, to score goals. Given that Shakhtar must attack them here and that Barcelona have superb pace on the break, I have to really fancy Barcelona here.
You should approach this game with some caution for the reasons mentioned above but considering that Shakhtar miss almost their entire defence for this game, it looks like odds of 5/4 on the away win are too generous here.
Team news – Shakhtar Donetsk miss Chygrynskiy, Kucher, Rat, and Chizhov whilst having doubts over Adriano whereas Barcelona miss Puyol and Abidal.
Verdict: Barcelona to win at 5/4.
Additional game
Liga de Quito vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza – home win with -1.5 handicap at 7/5.
This pivotal game in Ecuador is the Copa Libertadores clash between Liga de Quito and Godoy Cruz de Mendoza of Argentina. The hosts are currently second with the visitors third despite being level on points and as is this is the last group game for both sides, it’s very much a tense game that awaits us!
Liga de Quito are immense at home; fact. You don’t need to me to tell you that. There is no side in South America that monopolises the altitude advantage more than experienced Liga de Quito in their nest high up in Quito. They’ve lost once at home in their last thirty continental (including both Copa Libertadores and Copa Sudamericana) games, which speaks volumes about their strength at home. They’ve already drubbed Independiente 3-0 and Penarol 5-0 in the Copa Libertadores this year so why not again tonight? Liga de Quito are an attack-minded side; I don’t see them trying to defend a draw when that doesn’t suit their style. This side scores goals and at high altitude, nobody does it better, hence my call here.
Let’s also taken into consideration that this is Godoy Cruz de Mendoza’s first ever game at altitude on the continent and it’s one hell of a baptism of fire, I can tell you! They’re young, hungry, and determined with a good manager but this is a bridge too far for them, in my view. Bear in mind that the two games that Godoy Cruz de Mendoza have won so far in the Copa Libertadores this season have been 2-1 at home to Liga de Quito (should have been a draw) and 1-3 at Independiente (the hosts rested players for that game to try and stave off relegation domestically) so they’re not a side I’m too concerned about, to be honest. I respect them and I admire their tenacity but quality-wise, the visitors are a long way down the pecking order in this tournament. They’re too easy to score goals against and that should be especially evident at high altitude tonight. I can’t expect the usual Godoy display here either way, not with midfielder Olmedo out for the Argentinian visitors.
I can say without fear of contradiction that this will be the hardest game that Godoy Cruz de Mendoza have ever had to play to date, given that it’s their maiden voyage in this tournament. They’ve done really well to get where they are and they’ve had some fantastic experiences but I can see the end of the road for them tonight. Liga de Quito are one of the most experienced sides in this tournament and have beaten far better sides than Godoy Cruz de Mendoza at home over the years and I can see them strolling to victory here. Therefore, my call is for Liga de Quito to beat the -1.5 handicap at very generous odds of 7/5.
Team news – Godoy Cruz de Mendoza miss Curbelo and Olmedo.
Verdict: Liga de Quito to beat the -1.5 handicap at 7/5.