TFT Issue 78!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Djurgarden vs Malmo – away win at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan encounter between Djurgarden and Malmo on the many islands of Stockholm. The hosts are a side I have a bit of a soft spot for but I still can’t see anything but an away win today.
Djurgarden play some decent football and are generally a threat in front of goal but their weakness is their error-prone goalkeeper Touray and their somewhat average defence. Their midfield is really quite good, in my view, with Sjolund, Hamalainen, and Perovuo being a rather constant Finnish threat for the Swedes. In attack, they have a budding partnership between big Igboananike and pacey Youssef and that could give Djurgarden an easier season than last year in the long-term.
However, for this game, Djurgarden are not yet firing on all cylinders. They failed to register a goal against AIK Solna in the derby and lost 3-2 at Kalmar despite Kalmar looking a little vulnerable this season. They’re not providing as consistent a threat in front of goal as they should be and this stems from varying places. First of all, the departure of experienced Allsvenskan winger Touma hasn’t helped them. The absence of Ekong in midfield is hurting them too, although there are rumours that he may return today. The main problem has been gelling Youssef and Igboananike and that won’t be helped today as Youssef misses the game. Even worse news for Djurgarden is that understudies Oremo and Jonson both miss the game too so Djurgarden are going to have real problems scoring today with only Igboananike in attack.
Therefore, you have to side with Malmo here. Ok, they’re conceding a lot as they’re attacking a lot but this style suits them because nobody is outscoring them. I don’t know if it’s an over-zealous burst of form in a bid to give manager Nilsson a proper send-off as he’s leaving for Copenhagen in summer but whatever it is, Malmo look pretty damn dangerous at the moment. They’ve trounced Trelleborg 2-4 away from home and Halmstad 3-1 at home and although you’d expect Malmo to do well in those games, the manner of which they won those games against sides that know how to defend what highly impressive, in my view.
It’s no surprise that Malmo have struggled defensively though, is it? They’ve retrained ex-Bari hardman Daniel Andersson to centre-back and although he still has an immense passing range, he’s not the quickest and he’s not a defender. At this level, however, it’s generally enough for Malmo to survive with. Their strength naturally comes from their attack, however. In youngsters Mehmeti, Pekalski, and Rexhepi they have some of Sweden’s most promising players. They have good support from midfield with Figueiredo and Mutavdzic and they’ve got good experience at the back. All in all, we can expect Malmo to be in the title race this year.
Summarised; Malmo need to tigthen up defensively but their offensive power is second to none at the moment with seven goals scored in two games. They may concede against a stubborn Djurgarden side but they should have more than enough firepower to outscore them, especially with no absentees today. Therefore, I think 9/10 on the away win has some value today.
Team news – Djurgarden miss Mattias Jonson, Christer Youssef, Johan Oremo, Yosif Ayuba, and Daniel Jarl whilst having doubts over Prince Ekong and Philip Mantilla.
Verdict: Malmo to win at 9/10.
Additional games
Mainz 05 vs Borussia Moenchengladbach – away win with draw no bet at 7/4.
I like this bet far, far more than I should, given the long odds for it! However, I’m just really confident in it for reasons that I’ll explain.
First of all, let me give you an alarming statistics regarding high-flying Mainz 05; they’ve not scored in six out of their last ten Bundesliga home games. In fact, during that run, they’ve only scored more than once in one of those games so the absence of Szalai in attack is clearly doing them a lot of damage. Mainz 05’s strength is defending – they’re very good at defending when they want to be. However, there’s no Svensson or Noveski at the back today for Mainz 05 so they won’t be as assured as usual, especially having gone four games without a win and five months without a home win. Schurrle, Holtby, and Soto are all threats for Mainz 05 but is that really enough to justify odds of 10/11? It’s not for me because it’s cost them a lot of points at home this season as they rely on counter-attacks far too much so I see an opportunity to go against them tonight.
Visitors Borussia Moenchengladbach are a side I love to bet on, as you may have noticed. Why? Well, they’re bottom of the table and I don’t think they deserve to be, based on the players that they have. Unfortunately, they are down at the bottom due to bad defending and that would be a factor against a goalscoring side, which Mainz 05 aren’t, hence me giving Gladbach a bit of faith here. Instead, consider their goalscoring record which is bettered only by Hamburger SV, Hoffenheim, and VfB Stuttgart oustide of the top four in the Bundesliga and you’ll see what I mean when I describe Gladbach as “playing good football”. They still miss de Camargo in attack, which is a blow. However, I’m expecting the 5-1 drubbing of Koln (which was played without de Camargo) last match to give them a lot of momentum here to aid them in beating the drop. They fought well at Bayern Munich prior to that, losing 1-0 thanks to a late goal, and have only lost twice in their last five games. This side is on the rise and with only de Camargo missing here, I fancy them to upset the odds today. Playmaker Arango is one of the best in the Bundesliga, in my eyes, and with powerful Idrissou in front of him and Reus and Herrmann alongside him, Gladbach actually have a very potent goal threat.
Therefore, I’m left with the scenario in my head whereby Gladbach score more goals than Mainz 05, simply put. Yes, Gladbach could and probably will concede to Schurrle and co. However, with no Noveski, I’m quietly confident on Gladbach scoring more goals than impotent Mainz 05 today. Gladbach have a good goal threat and after such a big win last match, they bring good momentum into this game. This is a very “winable” game for Gladbach and they have to to try and beat the drop. For me, the away win with draw no bet cover represents good value at 7/4.
Team news – Mainz 05 miss Muller, Low, Noveski, Svensson, Grimm, Jeffrey, Simak, and Szalai whereas Borussia Moenchengladbach miss Dorda, de Camargo, Stalteri, Jaures, Wissing, and Janeczek.
Verdict: Borussia Moenchengladbach to win with draw no bet at 7/4.
Gomel vs Dinamo Brest – home win at 6/4.
I’ve mentioned Gomel a lot already in the current campaign and I’m going to mention them some more as the bookies still aren’t giving them the respect that they deserve from an odds perspective.
Gomel are a goalscoring side, first and foremost. They don’t care a lot about defending. Secondly, they’re not the average newly-promoted team in that they spent a large amount of money pre-season to give the side more depth and quality and in the sense that they’re already a big club – they belong in the Vysshaya Liga!
Just look at the results Gomel have gotten so far this season! They’ve drawn at the Atlant against Naftan Novopolotsk, which is one of the hardest away games in Belarus. They’ve beaten a decent Dnepr Mogilev side at home and then followed it up with a superb 0-0 draw at giants Dinamo Minsk. Their excellent run goes even further back than that, really, with back-to-back wins against Shakhtyor Soligorsk in the Belarusian Cup and a win and a draw against now-relegated Partizan Minsk so they bring a terrific amount of momentum and determination into this game. There’s a lot of goals and a lot of options in their attack and although their defence could use some strengthening, the signing of Estonian centre-back Stepanov has solidified them and thus I can take them seriously. All in all, Gomel are a black horse to claim a UEFA Europa League place if they can maintain this form for the season, which they do have the squad for.
Dinamo Brest are a side to back at home and oppose away from home, to put it simply. Last season, Dinamo Brest lost eight times away from home in the Vysshaya Liga and it’s generally because they don’t score enough goals. Their results this season reflect a side that is good at home and poor away, unsurprisingly, and I expect more of that for the remainder of this season. Dinamo Brest are a good side, that’s for sure – they’re not one to underestimate. However, I love going against them away from home as they simply don’t play well on the road. In addition to that, Dinamo Brest suffered some hefty losses pre-season with number one goalkeeper Plotnikov, powerhouse striker Vasilyuk, and midfield duo Kozak and Sokol all departing. They brought in ex-Dinamo Minsk striker Lebedev to replace Vasilyuk but have done nothing to replace their midfielders and that should especially cost them away from home.
This will not be an easy game so I can understand the odds to some degree. However, I still maintain that in-form Gomel with their goalscoring potential have a better chance of winning this game than the bookies think they do so my call is a home win for Gomel today.
Verdict: Gomel to win at 6/4.