TFT Issue 79!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
The bin
Otelul Galati vs Dinamo Bucharest – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Really generous odds on the away win with draw no bet cover when you consider how strong Dinamo are in attack. Otelul are a very compact unit that are hard to break down but that’s the only reason that they’re hard to beat – they don’t score many goals. As a united team, few will beat them but Dinamo have the firepower to do it. I’m put off by Dinamo’s shambolic defending, however, so I’ll give this one a miss today.
Double chance
1X:
Hajduk Split
Sillamae Kalev
HB Torshavn
LOSC Lille
AC Milan
Novara
Skonto Riga
Suduva Marijampole
Atlante
Vitesse Arnhem
Roda JC Kerkrade
NAC Breda
Rangers
Halmstad
Atvidaberg
Young Boys Bern
Vaduz
Fenerbahce
Featured game
Polonia Bytom vs Polonia Warsaw – away win at 6/4.
Today’s featured game is the Ekstraklasa encounter between Polonia Bytom and Polonia Warsaw. It was expected pre-season that Bytom would be battling against relegation and Warsaw would be vying for the top spot but here we are, nearing the end of the campaign and both are battling against the drop – it’s amazing what a power-mad chairman can drag a good club down to, isn’t it?
Polonia Bytom have only lost twice in eleven Ekstraklasa home games this season, which explains the long odds on this selection. However, the mood isn’t great in their camp due to financial issues and the controversy surrounding new signing Trytko. Indeed, Trytko misses this game through injury as it is, which leaves Polonia Bytom with a semi-fit Podstawek and some rather average strikers, which isn’t very convincing. They also miss defensive rock Hanek for this game, which is a hefty blow to what limited organisation they have at the back so I don’t expect much from the hosts today.
A 0-2 win at Ruch Chorzow last match will have boosted Bytom’s morale, naturally. However, it’s their only win in their past eight Ekstraklasa games due to sloppy defending and poor finishing, two things that should be even more visible today with no Hanek and no Trytko on the field.
Polonia Warsaw have won three out of the last five head-to-heads against Polonia Bytom and before Zielinski took over, I’d have certainly gone against that record continuing. However, the ex-Lech Poznan boss has united the Polonia Warsaw team very well indeed and has steered them to back-to-back victories against Korona Kielce away (1-3) and Lech Poznan at home (1-0) so morale is high. Let’s face it – Warsaw are not short on talent at all. In fact, they actually possess some of the best players in the country – it’s just their crazy chairman sacking managers every other week that has caused them to nose-dive this season.
Warsaw do miss experienced Smolarek in attack due to a funny scenario last match against Lech Poznan. For those of you who didn’t see it – Smolarek punched Arboleda because the defender was abusing him, apparently. It’s not very clear as to whether it was verbal as well as physical but Polish media insist that Arboleda was trying to stick his finger in Smolarek’s arse, which is just hilarious! Smolarek says that it’s true and hilariously, Arboleda could face prison for it if Smolarek sues him as it’s technically sexual abuse. Funny shit!
Anyway, Warsaw still have Sobiech and Mierzejewski in attack so they’re still strong for this game going forward. They’ll need to shuffle things around at the back with Sadlok still injured and now Tosik’s suspended too. However, the beauty of being a wealthy club is that they have great strength in-depth so I don’t see their absentees harming them too much today.
All in all, I think we should see an away win here. Warsaw are a top three side with their quality; they’d be up there now if they could keep a manager longer than a few seconds. Bytom are struggling in most things that they do and although they’re solid at home, they should really struggle here – Warsaw are very much in-form and momentum sides with them as a result. Therefore, I do see value in the away win at 7/5.
Team news – Polonia Bytom miss Hanek and Trytko whilst having doubts over Podstawek whereas Polonia Warsaw miss Smolarek, Tosik, and Sadlok.
Additional games
Halmstad vs GAIS Goteborg – home win at 6/4.
Hosts Halmstad made a lot of waves in the Allsvenskan pre-season by appointing a new manager who brought with him some very good technical players, which allowed for rumours to surface that they’d be playing a much more “Spanish” type of football than the usual Swedish long ball approach. That’s proven to be correct thus far with new boss Ruiz preferring to keep the ball on the floor and knock it around. Ruiz was the assistant to Malmo FF boss Nilsson last season so he knows how to make his side play attractive football. He’s brought in some interesting names too with ex-Bayern Munich midfielder Gorlitz and Real Madrid “Castilla” duo Zamora and Ruiz on loan so Halmstad have improved their quality ahead of the current campaign. They were assured at the back last season and I expect that again from them this season. It may take a bit of time for the new-look Halmstad side to gel properly, as their goalscoring record thus far indicates. However, they do keep the ball well and they are hard to beat so I fancy them to cause problems today.
My bet is massively aided by the ailing attack of GAIS Goteborg. They’ve only really got Alvaro Santos who can score goals for them anymore and boss Axen recognised that problem, hence the free transfer signature of Benin star Razak Omotoyossi. He was a legend for Helsingborg a few years ago before a few disappointing spells in other leagues and now he’s back in Sweden and raring to go! Well, he would be if he was eligible to play in this game, which he’s not – the Swedish FA have stated that Razak Omotoyossi is ineligible after playing for Swansea City as an amateur in a friendly game. Therefore, GAIS’ problems are still apparent, not that you’d realise it from their 4-0 drubbing of Trelleborg last match. They’re traditionally poor travellers too as their record of ten defeats from fifteen away games in the Allsvenskan last season indicates all too well with the only side to match such a dismal record being Atvidaberg, who were eventually relegated. GAIS are quite poor defensively and generally are amongst the weaker sides in the division although IFK Goteborg-bound midfielder Martensson can turn that around quickly if not handled correctly today.
Nonetheless, there seems to value on a Halmstad win today. GAIS’ Brazilian attacker Wandersen is supposedly a doubt although I’ve not been able to find any proof of that information to substantiate it so be careful there. Halmstad play better football than GAIS and should make it count today if they take their chances, even without the suspended Zamora. I don’t see GAIS having enough fireopwer to trouble the hosts so my call is a generously priced home win today.
Team news – Halmstad miss Zamora whereas GAIS Goteborg miss Omotoyossi.
Verdict: Halmstad to win at 6/4.