TFT Issue 80!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Public service announcement!
1. Don’t bet in Italy today. There’s more fixed games than I can count and it’s just not worth it to try and hop on the bandwagon when you’ve not been included in the initial agreement!
2. My personal rule is never bet on Portuguese derbies. Although Porto look like they should piss all over Sporting, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a frankly weak Sporting side take something here. I don’t know why it is but it’s derbies in Greece and Portugal that I always stay away from – they’re more unpredictable than others, for some reason.
Double chance
1X:
Levski Sofia
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional de Medellin
Jablonec
Liga de Quito
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund
Daugava Daugavpils
FK Ventspils
Ekranas Panevezys
Pumas UNAM
Feyenoord Rotterdam
Valerenga Oslo
Stromsgodset
Slask Wroclaw
Tampines Rovers
Elfsborg Boras
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk
Trujillanos
Featured game
Warta Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin – home win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Liga 1 encounter in Poland between Warta Poznana and Pogon Szczecin. This game is being played in Poznan’s newly-built Stadion Miejski and they expect to have 20,000 fans for this game today, which is quite unheard of in Liga 1!
Warta suffered their first defeat in six Liga 1 games since returning from the winter break last match, losing 1-0 at Flota Swinoujscie thanks to a last-gasp goal for the hosts. I don’t expect it to have damaged today’s hosts much, however, not with so many talented players in their team. They’ve won both home games in Liga 1 since returning from the winter break, scoring eight goals along the way. They signed some good players in the Janaury transfer window due to their hefty financial backing, bringing in Marciniak in defence and Gajtkowski in attack, two players that really should be in the Ekstraklasa, not Liga 1. Warta already had a good attack with veteran Reiss and pacey partner Zakrzewsi but with Gajtkowski there too now, they look very strong indeed. Marciniak has steadied the defence and as a whole, Warta look very strong to me at the moment, particularly with such vociferous support behind them.
Visitors Pogon Szczecin are not to be underestimated, however. They’re low down the Liga 1 table due to a bad start but they’re not a bad side; they realistically should be competing for a top five place in the table. However, I doubt we’re going to see that side of them today with the majority of their good defence absent for this game with Hrymowicz suspended and Dymkowski injured so it could be a long day for Pogon. They’ve played well since returning from the winter break, however, and having one of the best wingers in the division – Lawa – in their team helps them a lot. However, with only old ex-Wisla Krakow striker Moskalewicz scoring the goals for Pogon nowadays, you have to question how successful they’ll be against their new-look hosts.
For me, the value is on the home win for Warta. Pogon are missing two essential defenders and it’ll take more than insider information from ex-Warta Poznan striker Klatt to give them a chance of winning here. Atypically, these two sides could go toe-to-toe but with Pogon missing two many important players, my money is on Warta to win this one.
Team news – Pogon Szczecin miss Hrymowicz and Dymkowski whilst having doubts over Wolkiewicz.
Verdict: Warta Poznan to win at 4/5.
Additional games
Dainava vs Mazeikiai – away win at evens.
Three defeats in four A Lyga games thus far spells trouble for hosts Dainava and I don’t see things improving for them in the near future either. They’re short on talent, short on depth, and short on experience with the exceptions of Poderis and Padegimas. They were formed when Vidzgiris and Alytis became one club under the name “Dainava” and although people from that region are traditionally battlers anyway, they’re still bereft of talent and should struggle this season as a result. They’ve shipped ten goals in four A Lyga games, even losing at Atlantas in their last away game, with whom they were promoted last season. They finally claimed their first win of the season last match as they won at another fellow newly-promoted side – FBK Kaunas – but their goalscoring threat (or lack of) is a tremendous problem that I don’t think they’re going to be able to resolve this year without major work.
I watched Mazeikiai host Ekranas during their last game and Mazeikiai were rather unlucky to lose the game. They battled hard and Ukrainian attacker Antipov was a constant threat to the Ekranas backline. The quality and experience of Ekranas came through in the end as they secured three points with a late goal to make it 1-2 but one thing is for sure; Mazeikiai are not to be underestimated this season. They’ve drafted in a lot of Ukrainian players to help the cause and they’ve got some good depth in their team too, which you wouldn’t normally find from the average A Lyga side. They’ve already taken a draw at Tauras Taurage and a 2-0 win at home to Zalgiris Vilnius this season so you can see how much they’ve advanced. This side could do well this year if they keep hold of the likes of Antipov but one thing is for sure here – they really should have too much for impotent Dainava today.
Verdict: Mazeikiai to win at evens.
Slask Wroclaw vs Korona Kielce – home win at 9/10.
Fourteen consecutive games without defeat says that Slask are not the side to face at the moment. The magnificent job that Lenczyk has gone at the club has not gone unnoticed either, with Slask’s manager claiming the “manager of the month” award for March. However, Slask will need to improve if they’re to continue climbing the table as their display against Widzew Lodz last match wasn’t good enough, simply put. Say what you like about Slask and their defensive vulnerability of late though – they score a lot of goals and that makes them a dangerous side to play against. They miss defender Wolczek today through injury but happily welcome back Spahic so it’s not all bad for Slask. They’ve bagged eight goals in their last four games, encountering the likes of Lech Poznan and Legia Warsaw along the way so it’s going to take something special to deny the hosts in Wroclaw today.
Visitors Korona Kielce possess a good attack but they’re not scoring as many as they should be and their defence has gone to pieces, hence the predicament that led to their manager being dismissed. They’ve not fared much better since then, to be honest – they needed a fortunate own goal from Kirm in their game at home to Wisla Krakow last match in order to draw the game level to 2-2 despite Wisla having ten men for a large period of the game. Things aren’t likely to improve for them today either with midfield general Vukovic absent for this game and given that he galvanises the team when they’re struggling, this should be a very hard game indeed for Korona. Hell, they even miss Kuzera in defence so they’re almost guaranteed to concede here. As I mentioned earlier, Korona’s strength is in attack with old hand Niedzielan and pacey Janczyk alongside him. However, they’ve not galvanised as well as had been expected so they’ve turned to ex-Legia Warsaw attacker Korzym again and experienced Brazilian attacker Andradina instead. Korona do have a wealth of attacking options at their disposal although I can’t help but wonder if Lenczyk was playing mind-games pre-match as he said his team feared Korzym and Anradina more than Janczyk and Niedzielan – the latter two are better than the former two, not that the form of either shows it currently. Either way, Korona have taken one point from a possible nine on the road since returning from the winter break because they’ve shipped seven goals and that doesn’t bode well for the difficult trip to Wroclaw today.
With the above in mind and strong momentum favouring Slask Wroclaw, my call has to be a home win today.
Team news – Slask Wroclaw miss Jezierski, Vukelja, and Wolczek whereas Korona Kielce miss Maliszewski, Kuzera, Vukovic, and Malarczyk.
Verdict: Slask Wroclaw to win at 9/10.
Rapid Bucharest vs Poli Timisoara – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Again, I’m looking to capitalise on the disorientated displays of Rapid Bucharest by opposing them with a good Poli Timisoara side.
Rapid have struggled since Constantin was demoted and with Cassio out, their goals have dried up. They’ve played out back-to-back draws against relegation-threatened Universitatea Craiova at home and relegation-threatened Victoria Branesti away respectively, both ending scoreless despite Rapid actually having a large amount of support in their last game due to the closeness of the venue to Bucharest. They’ve scored just one goal in their past three games now and they’ve failed to win two out of their last three home games due to not scoring. These aren’t good times for the hosts and although they’re unbeaten in the Liga at home this season, I think it’s the opportune moment to oppose them today.
Visitors Poli Timisoara have had their own problems of late by conceding silly goals but they happily have star Zicu back 100% for this game so he can weave his usual magic to cause mayhem in the Rapid defence. He’s already seen a terrific return with sixteen goals from twenty-two appearances this season and you just know he wants to do well against one of his old Bucharest rivals. Timisoara’s away form leading into this game is three wins from three games, which is very strong form indeed. It’s at home where they seem to be troubled more of late, which is puzzling. Nonetheless, Timisoara are a very able side and I think that they can take advantage of a vulnerable Rapid Bucharest side today.
It helps my bet that Timisoara have had the voodoo sign over Rapid for some time now. They’ve won the last six head-to-heads at either venue and with Rapid looking impotent and the visitors looking potent, I think the away win with draw no bet cover at 6/5 has some value today, especially with Timisoara still yet to taste defeat on the road this season despite facing Dinamo Bucharest and Steaua Bucharest along the way.
Verdict: Poli Timisoara to win with draw no bet at 6/5.