TFT Issue 81!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Orebro vs Gefle – home win to nil at 6/5.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan encounter between Orebro and Gefle.
The artificial turf of the hosts today welcomes a side that many expect not to be playing in the Allsvenskan next year and to be honest, looking at their squd, I can only agree with those sentiments.
Nothing is as simple as that in football, however; we all know that, hence Gefle’s mildly surprising good start. They’re unbeaten in their two Allsvenskan games thus far, winning once and drawing once, so they do bring momentum into this game. However, I’d rather hurriedly point out that Gefle’s points have all come against newly-promoted opposition with a 1-1 draw at Syrianska Sodertalje and a 2-0 win at home to IFK Norrkoping so let’s not read too much into Gefle’s displays thus far. Instead, let’s focus on how short on depth and quality they are and deal more with that aspect. Their best striker by a mile is Dahlberg and he’s absent today, leaving thirty-eight year old Berggren to lead the line with Orlov. Orlov is semi-decent at best and with only emerging talent Tomros offering any alternative whatsoever for Gefle, I think it’s fair to describe their attack as “poor”. They’ve got some pace and energy in midfield with Ghanaian duo Chibsah and Abdullai so they’re not easy to walk around, Gefle. However, again, they’re short on talent overall and it’ll eventually cost them, no doubt. Lastly, their defence is decent with one of the Allsvenskan’s most consistent players at the heart of it – Bernhardsson – but he’s getting old now and pace isn’t on his side. All in all, we have a vulnerable Gefle side that currently looks better than they actually are so I don’t rate their chances here.
Orebro signed BK Hacken Goteborg’s pacey Brazilian striker Paulinho in the past few days and you could almost hear a collective groan from IFK Goteborg as they realise it’ll be even harder to obtain that elusive European place this year with strong contenders Orebro now adding potency to their strong team. Orebro are solid at the back and very strong in midfield; adding a good and proven Allsvenskan striker to their ranks makes this side potentially very dangerous. They’ve already beaten IFK Goteborg 0-1 away from home and newly-promoted Syrianska Sodertalje 1-0 at home this season in their typical assured and composed way. With Paulinho in attack being supported by the likes of Gerzic and Bedoya in midfield, you have to fancy a European finish for Orebro this season, especially given how strongly they’ve started.
For me, there’s worlds of difference between these two sides and I expect it to show today. The bookies look to have priced the game correctly today, unfortunately. However, I do like the odds of 6/5 available on Orebro winning to nil. They’re not a flambuoyant side; they only need a goal or two to sit on and ride it out and given that attack is one of Gefle’s weakest areas, I think it makes sense to exploit that today, especially with Orebro already having two clean sheets from two games already this season. Gefle lost their two away games on artificial turf last season in the Allsvenskan, including a 3-1 defeat here against Orebro. I thoroughly expect a home win today as a result but the only value I can find in that selection is backing the hosts to win without conceding here.
Team news – Gefle miss Ohagen, Leino, Tomros, and Dahlberg.
Verdict: Orebro to win to nil at 6/5.
Additional game
Villarreal CF vs Real Zaragoza – both sides to score at 4/5.
A lot of people will be jumping all over Villarreal today but I can’t say that I’ll be one of them. They’ve bagged just three goals in their past five Primera Liga games, losing three times, drawing once, and winning once along the way. They may have claimed a somewhat redundant 1-3 victory at Twente Enschede mid-week in the Netherlands but their 5-0 drubbing at bitter rivals Valencia CF still plays heavily on their mind and it’s affecting their displays. Villarreal simply don’t look as “immortal” as normal at the moment and although the likes of Nilmar and Rossi are always a threat to opposing sides, I’m just not convinced that Villarreal will be able to beat sides like Zaragoza as Zaragoza aren’t afraid to take the game to El Submarino Amarillo.
Villarreal do have a better quality squad than Zaragoza – I don’t think that can be argued. However, I would say Zaragoza have a better manager in experienced Mexican boss Javier Aguirre as we’ve seen with countless different teams. Aguirre loves his sides to play attacking football and that’s exactly what Zaragoza do. I still maintain that they miss a natural finisher and that’s all that holds them back from competing for the UEFA Europa League places but their midfield is really rather good, in my view. Now that they’ve got Lafita back from injury, they can sit the likes of Ponzio in front of the back four and unleash Herrera, Lafita, and Gabi upon opposing defences and generally, that will cause problems, just as it did during their 2-1 win at home to Getafe last match.
It’s still very much do-or-die for both clubs for varying reasons so we should hopefully see quite an open game here as that’s how both sides prefer to play. Three out of the last four meetings between these two clubs has involved both sides scoring and with Villarreal looking a little vulnerable and Zaragoza playing with a little fire and rejuvenated spirit, my call here is for both sides to score at 4/5.
Team news – Villarreal CF miss Senna and Cani.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.