TFT Issue 84!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow – over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Today’s featured game is the pivotal Ekstraklasa game in Poland between Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Krakow. With just nine points seperating third from fifteenth in the Ekstraklasa table at such a late stage of the season, it’s fair to observe that every side still has something to play for, which is especially the case for both of these two clubs today.
Slask Wroclaw looked set for a battle against relegation earlier this season but manager Lenczyk has turned things around with just one defeat in their seven games since the winter break. They’ve attacked well, they’ve looked dangerous, but most of all – the fact that they’ve scored goals is a big advantage. They struggled the first time that Diaz was ruled out with lengthy injury this season but they’ve coped well lately with a renewed vigour and they’ve surprisingly bagged goals without the talented and pacey Argentinian hitman, who incidentally may feature for just the second time in literally months today. Barring the surprise 0-1 defeat at home to Korona Kielce last match, Slask have upset a lot of teams since the winter break, playing a fabulous 2-2 draw out in Poznan with Lech whilst also ruffling the feathers of Legia Warsaw by winning 1-2 in Warsaw, not to mention being the first side to travel to Bialystok to face Jagiellonia without being beaten. Slask’s performances of late have been under scrutiny from the Polish media and that pressure finally buckled Slask following, subsequently leading to their defeat against Korona. That pressure should have been relieved ahead of this game and at home to Ekstraklasa giants Wisla, you have to fancy Slask to be highly motivated for this game either way. They’ve played out some good games with Wisla over the past few years with three out of their last four meetings in Wroclaw having gone over 2.5 goals and that’s exactly what I expect today too.
Visitors Wisla are flying high at the moment, however, and it’d taken a bold person to bet against them. They’ve got more firepower than any other side in the division as a whole with their usual front three of Malecki, Melikson, and Genkov generally causing mayhem in opposing defences. However, the pitch in Wroclaw is in poor condition and Wisla may struggle to play their passing game here so I’m staying away from the away win. Aside from that, Bulgarian hitman Genkov misses this game anyway so again, I’m not touching a Wisla win here. The return of holding midfielder Sobolewski and pacey Malecki in attack boosts the in-form Wisla side and given that they’ve scored fifteen goals in their last seven Ekstraklasa games, either via fair, foul, or fortunate means, they’re still scoring goals and that cannot be overlooked, especially whilst Slask are conceding as many as they are. Wisla will attack Slask tonight; not only because of their desire to win the Ekstraklasa but also because they’ve got even harder games than this looming large in the coming weeks. Given how Slask are defending, this is a game that Wisla can win and I expect to see them line up in their usual attacking 4-3-3 as a result.
However, one thing that Wisla’s results don’t necessarily show thus far is their vulnerability from set pieces. Almost all of the goals that they’ve conceded in their past few games have come from badly-defended set pieces and that nearly allowed GKS Belchatow a way back into their game with Wisla Krakow at Reymonta despite only having ten men at the time. Wisla are not good in the air at the back and ironically, Slask Wroclaw are very good from set pieces. Read into the above what you will from a 1×2 perspective; I wouldn’t touch it if you paid me to, although I do think Slask could potentially spring a surprise here. However, with over 2.5 goals being priced as ludicrously generously as 6/5, that has to be my call here.
Team news – Slask Wroclaw miss Sztylka, Wolczek, and Jezierski whereas Wisla Krakow miss Genkov, Boguski, Boukhari, and Bunoza.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Additional games:
IF Fuglafjordur vs KI Klaksvik – home win at 9/10.
Ah, I do love Faroese football! Nobody knows much about it and thus you can generally find good odds with the only troubling factor generally being whether there’s high wind or not so let’s attempt to take on what should be some good value bets today.
In the Faroe Islands, there are generally two very good teams – EB/Streymur and HB Torshavn – who are always closely followed by NSI Runavik, who in turn are always followed by IF Fuglafjordur and Vikingur Gotu respectively. Ironically, that’s pretty much how the Meistaradeildin ended last season although there have been some changes pre-season that indicate that EB/Streymur will easily win the Meistaradeildin this season with HB Torshavn vying with NSI Runavik for second place. IF and Vikingur have both made changes pre-season and should battle for fourth place although the gap between fifth and sixth should be larger with B36 Torshavn having made some substantial losses pre-season.
Anyway, enough about the Meistaradeildin as a whole; let’s look at today’s game. IF are one of those sides that concede more goals than they should but also rarely disappoint at the goalscoring end too. They tend to enjoy their counter-attacking football more than breaking opponents down but they still have plenty of goals in them either way. Winger Andy Olsen may be out for most of the season but the signing of midfielder Bogi Lokin from NSI Runavik and the signing of Nigerian striker Muomaife, formerly of Viborg, has to be of some consolation from an attacking perspective as IF look to push up the table and close the gap on the likes of NSI Runavik. I don’t think they’ll be able to this year, not without Olsen, but next year – who knows? Nonetheless, IF are a good side and they realistically should be in the mix at the end of the season. They’ve played a couple of bizarre Meistaradeildin games thus far with a 0-4 defeat at home to EB/Streymur – the visitors in that game will almost certainly win the title this season; I was only surprised by the hosts playing a rare game without scoring! – and a 3-4 victory at B68 Toftir in a game that didn’t really deserve that many goals – it was just the high wind that I mentioned earlier that led to a shitload of goals from set pieces. I expect to see normal service resumed by the hosts today though.
I can’t help but feel that the odds for this game are priced solely on the current Meistaradeildin standings because KI Klaksvik really aren’t that good a side. They’ve made some good signings pre-season, it’s true, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that they’ve only just been promoted this season. KI Klaksvik’s leading goalscorer Kalso from last season moved to Denmark to study rather than continuing his footballing career so that was one obstacle that they’ve already had to hurdle. The signings of Elttor in attack was surprising and impressive both at the same time and he’s immediately settled in with his excellent pace and experience of this division. Emerging midfielder Heinesen appears set for another good season too, especially alongside the experienced Serbian midfielder Jankovic. However, the problem I have with KI’s team is that it’s either too youthful or too reliant on their bigger players. Their two results thus far don’t show that, of course – that’s why you need to read between the lines sometimes. KI have won two games emphatically thus far, it’s true – but that’s only the statistics. KI were more than matched by B71 Sandur in their opening Meistaradeildin game but bear in mind that the game was played on neutral soil due to B71’s artificial turf being replaced and that KI took their chances better than B71. You can also admire their 3-1 victory at home to B68 Toftir but again, this is another poor team. I’m not saying that I’d expect those scorelines from KI Klaksvik; far from it. However, the possibility of them winning those games was far from outlandish and they’ve started well as they’ve taken their chances so credit must go to them. However, they’re facing a side that is considerably better than they are today and that should really tell by the final whistle, in my view.
I can see plenty of goals in this one but 9/10 on IF Fuglafjordur winning this one smells like a bargain to me today.
Verdict: IF Fuglafjordur to win at 9/10.
Vikingur Gotu vs B36 Torshavn – home win at 9/10.
B36 Torshavn are a big name in Faroese football but they might not be for much longer if they continue to make such hefty losses each season. B36’s only ray of hope pre-season was the signature of experienced winger Suni Olsen, although the signing of ex-Hvidovre duo Cieslewicz (striker) and Rasmussen (defender) has certainly boosted their rather ailing ranks. Their losses far exceed their signings, however, with defender Olsen having left for NSI Runavik, attacker Elttor having joined newly-promoted KI Klaksvik, and midfielder Olsen having joined EB/Streymur whilst playmaker Mouritsen and full-back Tor Naes have both joined Icelandic heavyweights Valur Reykjavik. All of those players were integral for B36 Torshavn and although their new signings appear to be talented, it still takes time to adjust and B36 are still vulnerable at the moment. They’ve won back-to-back games thus far, it’s true, but again – they’ve been against crap sides. I see very little chance on 07 Vestur Sorvagur staying up this season following promotion due to a severe lack of quality and B71 Sandur don’t have the depth for us to conclude that they can beat the drop. All I’ll say thus far is that B36’s results have both flattered them and suited them; let’s see how they fare against a superior host today. Vikingur Gotu lost a valiant battle with Meistaradeildin favourites EB/Streymur in a 2-1 defeat on the opening day of the season, which was unlucky but respectable nonetheless. Since then, they overcame a good NSI Runavik side 3-2 so you can already see Vikingur’s statement of intent this season as they seek to push on and score more goals, perhaps even sensing the weakenss of HB Torshavn following unconvincing displays and the lengthy injury suffered by star striker av Flotum. Emerging Faroese striker Justinussen, attacking midfielder Vatnhamar, and ever-dangerous Sam Jacobsen make this Vikingur Gotu side dangerous. They need to tighten up defensively and the return of star centre-back Gregersen from Ross County should aid them in doing so. All that remains is for them to unleash their attacking prowess and reap the rewards; it’s as easy as that, eh?
Football at the start of the season is never as easy as that, unfortunately. However, the odds are far too generous here with the above in mind. B36 parted with almost half of their starting eleven pre-season; they can thank the Norse Gods that they were dealt two easy games at the start of the Meistaradeildin campaign or I suspect that they’d be floundering at the bottom of the table by now! Signing set piece specialist Suni Olsen pre-season – ironically from Vikingur Gotu – was an inspired move and that should help B36 ultimately. However, I can’t see it being enough today; Vikingur are simply a better side than B36 nowadays. Aside from the Suni Olsen factor, I see no reason for Vikingur Gotu to make this a seventh consecutive victory over B36 Torshavn and 9/10 just looks far too generous in my eyes so my call is the home win.
Verdict: Vikingur Gotu to win at 9/10.