TFT Issue 85!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
A quick heads-up – there’s only rumoured to be one fixed game in Serie A this weekend (for a change!) which is Bologna at home against Cesena. Rumour has it that it’ll be a draw but frankly you’re an idiot if you bet on that game or try to take advantage of these betting rings without actually being part of it because you’re guessing in the dark otherwise. My advice? AVOID IT!
The bin
Slovacko vs Banik Ostrava – home win at 6/5.
Was quite happy to take this given the generous odds and crap displays from Banik of late but rumours that Svancara misses this game for Slovacko has unnerved me substantially as he’s their best striker by a mile so I’ll avoid this one today.
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Colon de Santa Fe – lay Estudiantes De La Plata at 5/4.
Very tempted by this one as Colon love to counter-attack and have one of the best away records in Argentina currently whereas Estudiantes aren’t playing well at all. However, the reason they’re not playing well has been absences ala Veron, Brana etc. Unfortunately, Veron, Brana, Azqui, and Benitez all return tonight so I’m going to give this one a miss as Estudiantes could produce an inspired display with the afore-mentioned back in town.
Double chance
1X:
Velez Sarsfield
BATE Borisov
Lokomotiv Sofia
Huachipato
O’Higgins
Universidad de Chile
Universidad Catolica
Dinamo Zagreb
Chelsea
Nomme Kalju
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Schalke 04
Fehervar
Udinese
Santos Laguna
Nacional Asuncion
Poli Timisoara
Barcelona
Celta de Vigo
Featured game
Pogon Szczecin vs Bogdanka Leczna – home win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Liga 1 encounter in Poland between sleeping giants Pogon Szczecin and moneybags Bogdanka Leczna. Both clubs have played well in spells since the winter break so we should expect quite a good game here.
The only way I can describe Pogon’s display at Warta last match is “heroic”. They played arguably the best that they’ve played all season long to make it seven Liga 1 games without defeat and considering that they’ve faced LKS Lodz, Flota Swinoujscie, and Piast Gliwice along the way, it’s safe to say that the old Pogon is back. I’ve mentioned before that they don’t belong where they are in the table because they’re a good side and they’re finally starting to show it. Helpfully, Pogon could welcome back Gwaze today to give them additional options in midfield but with two wins from their last three games, I don’t see why they’d want to change things around. Their displays have been consistently good of late and given that they’re finally starting to win games as a result of it, I think it’s safe to start backing Pogon again. The only absentee that Pogon have today is defender Dymkowski, which is a hefty blow for them, in all honesty. However, the absentee list of their opponents is far more concerning, in my view!
Bogdanka enter this game without a whole host of players and although some of them are squad rotation players at best, some of them are really very important. They miss a big chunk of their midfield with Nikitovic, Bartoszewicz, and Soldecki all absent and that’s going to really harm their overall display. Even more worrying is their concerns over the team’s star Miloseski, who isn’t full fit for this game so if he does feature then he won’t be at his best. They’re also missing integral Bulgarian centre-back Bozhkov for this encounter so to say that Bogdanka are under-strength here would be a massive understatement. It’s fortunate that they signed some midfielders during the transfer window as the likes of Kaczmarek can help bear the burden of a predominantly-absent midfield and he definitely has the quality to cause problems, too. However, this midfield is unfamiliar as it’s still newly-assembled and that could prove to be rather pivotal here as Pogon look more united each time I see them. Form-wise, Bogdanka have hit the rocks lately with three defeats in their past four games as they’ve shipped seven goals in four games and have only scored in two of those four games. Although their financial backing means that promotion is more a question of “when” and not “if”, I just can’t see it being any time soon unless they gel much better than they have thus far.
The hosts are looking united and bring strong momentum into this game whereas the visitors are struggling in all areas of the park and have hefty absentees today. Therefore, I can’t help but feel that the home win is generously priced at evens.
Team news – Pogon Szczecin miss Dymkowski whereas Bogdanka Leczna miss Bozhkov, Stefaniuk, Oziemczuk, Szymanek, Nikitovic, Soldecki, and Bartoszewicz whilst having doubts over Miloseski.
Verdict: Pogon Szczecin to win at evens.
Additional games
Chiasso vs Lausanne Sports – away win at 7/5.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen two sides placed so close together in a league whilst having so much quality difference between them! Obviously the table has played a huge part in these odds because Lausanne Sports are a lot better than Chiasso, which is something I’m hoping to exploit today.
Ok, so let’s start with motivation. Chiasso have already achieved their goal of avoiding relegation following promotion to the Challenge League and they know they’re not going to get promoted so their motivation has lessened and it’s showing, too. Additionally, their squad is stretched at the moment due to a long campaign and a lack of depth, which is impacting their displays. Any kind of disruption does a lot of damage to Chiasso because they only know how to play football one way; score, and defend it! They’re good at the back but in front of goal, Chiasso are alarmingly impotent most of the time. Chiasso have won just once in their last six Challenge League games and considering that the win came at bottom club Yverdon Sport, it’s easy to see that my theory holds water. Chiasso have lost three straight home wins now and one was even against a poor Locarno side, which is unacceptable. They’ve lost at home to Vaduz and Lugano along the way, which is acceptable as they’re better teams than Chiasso but who else is in that bracket with those two sides? Servette and today’s opponents Lausanne Sports, of course! Chiasso know when they’re out of their depth and that’s the kind of thing I expect to see today. Chiasso are conceding too many goals at the moment and their lack of firepower isn’t helping. Can things be worse for them right now? Of course they can – this is football! It isn’t a fairytale! Yes, Chiasso miss important defender Croci-Torti through suspension and if their already fragile defence is missing one of its lynchpins against one of the top sides in the Challenge League then they’re in for a long and ultimately disappointing game here.
Lausanne Sports have absences too but nobody I’d describe as “indispensable”. However, their issue lately has been motivation because they lost 0-2 at home to Servette, which was a massive blow to their promotion hopes. Lausanne Sports subsequently followed that game up with a 2-0 defeat at lowly Aarau so you can see how their morale plummeted. However, news has arisen since then that will send their confidence sky-high following Servette’s game against Vaduz. Servette have officially re-opened the battle for second place by beating Vaduz, condemning Vaduz to their second straight defeat and plummeting their morale as a result. That means that a win today for Lausanne Sports will put them just five points behind Vaduz with six games remaining and with the knowledge that Vaduz aren’t playing well and that Lausanne Sports still have to host Vaduz toward the end of the season, there’s definitely an avenue of opportunity for Lausanne Sports here. What about Servette, though? Lausanne are still reeling from their defeat against the giants of the Challenge League but the news that Servette’s star attacker de Azevedo is set to miss the remainder of the season through injury is going to dent their promotion hopes massively with all hopes now pinned on hitman Eudis. Again, Lausanne Sports are the side to benefit from this news so their motivation should be sky-high today.
Quality-wise, Lausanne Sports are the better side here by a mile. Lausanne’s only real flaw is not scoring as many as their promotion rivals tend to but with no Croci-Torti at the back for Chiasso today, there’s definitely a gap for Lausanne Sports to exploit. They’re going to need Silvio, Rodrigo, and Roux in top form but with an injection of motivation into their camp, I think they’ve got a far better chance of winning this game against a tired Chiasso side than the bookies do, hence my selection of the away win at 7/5.
Team news – Chiasso miss Croci-Torti whereas Lausanne Sports miss Steuble, di Ponte, Bah, and Moussilou.
Verdict: Lausanne Sports to win at 7/5.
Rostov-na-Donu vs Terek Grozny – home win at 6/5.
I’d like to substantiate this bet more than I actually can but basically – Rostov are a better team than Terek. Terek have only managed to score two goals in four games and those were both against a very poor Tom’ Tomsk side and that game was in Grozny. Terek aren’t a tremendous side but they usually have goals in them. However, because Gullit is a shit manager, Terek are on the rocky road to ruin – I wouldn’t be surprised if he was fired by July, to be honest. I’ve no idea why clubs appoint him as manager – he’s never done anything as a manager. Rostov need to tighten their defence up but their firepower is unquestionable with tricky Cesnauskis on the flank being supported by Kalachev, Rebko, and Blatnjak, just to name a few. They’ve got two good target men to choose from in attack with Roman Adamov being second choice behind Kirichenko, who is the second-highest goalscorer of all time in the Russian Premier League so his finishing is unquestionable.
With the above in mind, Rostov should really win this game. They’ve not lost to Terek in four meetings since being promoted, beating them 1-0 in Rostov-na-Donu last season. Rostov enter this game on the back of a morale-boosting win at Dinamo Moscow in the Russian Cup whereas Terek endured a second goalless draw in a row. Therefore, for me, Rostov is a steal at 6/5.
Verdict: Rostov-na-Donu to win at 6/5.
Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn
At the time I’m writing this preview, I can’t find any odds on this selection. However, if it’s 4/5 or longer than I’d take it; shorter, and I’d leave it.
Why unders? Well, Trans Narva are the biggest “unders” team out of the Meistriliiga giants in Estonia because they play organised football i.e. winning without conceding. It’s no surprise whatsoever that they’re from a more Russian-orientated part of Estonia with that in mind, is it?! The Russians love that tactic!
Narva will sit back here and look to hit Flora on counters because they know Flora is a better team. However, Flora are going to be a bit tired here following their 4-0 drubbing in Latvia mid-week against FK Ventspils in the Baltic League and in addition to that, they’ve simply not played well without their top target man Post, who has left to join Aalesund in Norway. Without him, they lack a great deal of potency and although I still wouldn’t hesitate in stating that Flora are the best side in Estonia right now, I would say that the gap has lessened with Post’s departure.
The game in Narva between these two sides has gone under 2.5 goals twice in their last three meetings and with the above in mind, I expect more of the same this time around.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at ?
Levadia Tallinn vs Sillamae Kalev – away win at 3/1.
Beautiful, beautiful odds – even if it doesn’t come in!
I’ve gone through Levadia’s flaws so many times this season that I’m tired of repeating myself! They’ve no team left nowadays – well, from an attacking perspective at least. It’s Nahk and his amazing free-kicks versus whoever Levadia are playing. They can still defend pretty well but they’re not a great attacking threat nowadays. However, Sillamae Kalev have emerged as real Meistriliiga contenders this season, which was a big surprise to me. They’ve always been a good side to respect but never one to trouble the bigger sides on a regular basis. However, they’re really starting to do that with Russian striker Alekseev being the hottest prospect in the Baltic right now with eight goals bagged in six games. Sure, Sillamae lost 2-3 at home to Maag Tammeka Tartu last match but that was a direct result of an exhausting Estonian Cup game shortly before that. I fully expect the “real” Sillamae Kalev to show up today and if they do then I can’t see Levadia matching them for goals.
There’s one good defensive side here and one good attacking side. If the attacking side does what it does best and scores goals here then they’re going to win the game, in my view. Levadia were poor against Siauliai mid-week in the Baltic League, failing to even score against the second string of their Lithuanian opponents. Why should that change today? I don’t see Levadia scoring more than once here but I can absolutely envision Sillamae Kalev scoring two or more here, just as Nomme Kalju side. For me, there’s potentially some terrific value in backing Sillamae Kalev to win this one at 3/1.
Verdict: Sillamae Kalev to win at 3/1.
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Dinamo Brest – home win at 11/10.
Hosts Naftan Novopolotsk are just begging to be backed again and I can’t overlook them this time.
I’ve mentioned before that the Atlant is one of the hardest venues in Belarus to play at and Naftan play a combative style that makes it even harder to get a result here. I had my doubts over Naftan this season following some big departures pre-season but an excellent 0-1 victory at giants Dinamo Minsk in the last round has convinced me that Naftan have gelled their new players already and that they’re back to producing their usual united front. Hell, they even stuffed Dnepr Mogilev 6-0 in the game before that and although Dnepr do have a weak side in this campaign, that result still shouldn’t be happening. New striker Khlebosolov has adjusted really well and looks dangerous alongside Gavruyshko, especially with Kobets behind them. Shkbara has added a lot of stability to their midfield, as expected, and if Naftan can start defending properly from set pieces then they’ll be an unexpected force this season.
Dinamo Brest are a good side but away from their artificial turf they tend to struggle. Another large handicap of Dinamo’s is that they can’t defend, which is a pretty big problem, as I’m sure you’d all agree! Times aren’t good for Dinamo though, despite a promising start. No wins in four games and they’ve lost their last two consecutively without scoring a goal. They were humiliated 0-3 last match by a very good BATE Borisov side which you could argue is to be expected but for a side like Dinamo, to display such little fight is unacceptable. In Dinamo’s two away games this season, they’ve drawn with a new-look Belshina Bobriusk and lost at newly-promoted Gomel, looking poor in both games. Poor Tarasenko at the back must be tearing his hair out because he’s the only one that knows what he’s doing back there. Pankovets’ confidence is shot to shit following two own goals against BATE Borisov and Dinamo miss number one goalkeeper Klimovich today through suspension so I can’t see their defence improving here and if they ain’t scoring goals then they’re going to have a nightmare game at Atlant today.
Summarised; we’re looking at two sides heading in opposite directions form-wise and that should hopefully play a part here momentum-wise. Naftan have won this fixture for three years in a row and have only lost once against Dinamo in their last ten meetings at either ground. Dinamo haven’t won at Atlant since 2000, losing eight out of their ten trips along the way. Dinamo have scored on just one of their last six trips to Novopolotsk. Anyone else feel that the home win at 11/10 is good value here? I do!
Team news – Dinamo Brest miss Klimovich.
Verdict: Naftan Novopolotsk to win at 11/10.