TFT Issue 89!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
The bin
Liepajas Metalurgs vs FK Ventspils – away win at 7/4.
It’s been ages since FK Ventspils won the Kurzemes derby but I think they can do it this year. Liepajas Metalurgs sold their two star attackers and although they have some adequate replacements, it’s in games like this where it should be exposed. For me, Ventspils are too long at 7/4 but their woeful head-to-head record puts me off, hence “no bet”.
Featured game
Jaguares vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores game in Mexico between Jaguares and South American opposition Atletico Junior Barranquilla.
The hosts have managed to bring their domestic reputation into continental football as they’ve proven on varying occasions that they simply don’t score goals. They’ve got a few decent attacking players but given that their best are Andrade and Valdez in midfield, it doesn’t exactly speak volumes for the finishing capacity of the hosts. Indeed, they’ve only bagged six goals in six games and considering that they have a terrific altitude advantage of being about 3500 metres above sea level, it’s not a very impressive goalscoring record whatsoever. Don’t get me wrong – Jaguares have won all three home games in the tournament thus far but it’s no surprise at all that two of them have gone under 2.5 goals (and the other should have gone under 2.5 goals too!). Let’s also bear in mind that Jaguares don’t value this competition. For the last game of the group stages, a win in Bolivia for Jaguares would have secured qualification to the latter stages, irrespective of the result between Internacional and Emelec in Brazil. However, the Jaguares coach elected to send his reserves, stating that he “didn’t expect Emelec to get a result in Brazil”! Jaguares were in a relegation battle at the time, however, so there’s no prizes for which competition took their priority. Add all of the above up and we have a home side that could win this game but are very unlikely to score goals tonight, importantly.
I’ve been impressed with Junior in this tournament. It takes a lot for Colombian sides to impress me on the continent nowadays as they generally don’t score enough and defend poorly. However, Junior have taken their chances and defended well and have thus earned their place in the current round. They sacrificed their domestic campaign to focus entirely on this competition and that takes some gall. They’ve lost just once in five games and that was in Brazil against Gremio, which is rarely an easy game. Most of Junior’s games have gone over 2.5 goals in the Copa Libertadores this season but they’ve all been 1-2 or 2-1, which backs up my idea that they’ve been caused by something specific as Junior generally aren’t an over 2.5 goals side. They like to hold leads and defend solidly on the road. However, Junior aren’t doing too well overall in the form department at the moment, failing to score in four out of their last six games in all competitions. Paez and Bacca are decent strikers but will struggle against a good defence, generally speaking. However, Jaguares aren’t especially good at the back but at altitude, they’ll be made to look like the old Italian defences – immovable.
A draw, or even scoring a goal, is a good result for Junior here. They’d be stupid to go for the win and Quintabani knows it. Jaguares don’t genuinely care about this competition. They’ll fight whilst at home but going out is not a travesty for them. I therefore see a battling but low-scoring affair here and thus I think under 2.5 goals is a good value bet at 4/5.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Additional games:
Daugava Daugavapils vs Skonto Riga – away win at evens.
Well, these are stupid odds! Daugava away isn’t an easy game by any stretch of the imagination but make no mistake here – Skonto Riga are the better of these two sides by quite a distance and although they don’t always manage to beat Daugava, they absolutely have the firepower to do so. To beat Daugava you must break through their resilient and well-organised defence. They’re not a naturally gifted goalscoring side, Daugava – they win games by defending well, generally speaking. Daugava lost 2-0 against Liepajas Metalurgs last match and a similar scoreline today wouldn’t surprise me. It took Liepajas Metalurgs some time to break through the Daugava ranks and it’ll probably be a similar story for giants Skonto Riga today but I still expect them to win the game. They’ve played four away games in all competitions thus far and have won all of them despite trips to Estonia and Lithuania along the way, let alone the artificial turf at Jelgava last match. Skonto Riga still have Latvian starlet Karasauskas in their ranks (although who knows for how long? he has a serious eye for goal) and although Nathan Junior is still out with a lenthy injury, the experienced Blanks steps in and with Fabinho supporting them, Skonto Riga are a force.
Don’t get me wrong – Skonto Riga made some hefty losses pre-season. Star midfielder Cauna joined CSKA Moscow on loan, pacey Pereplotkins in attack joined Uzbek outfit Nasaf, and striker Turkovs left for Hungarian side Zalaegerszegi TE. However, the experience of Juris Laizans in midfield coupled with the long-awaited return of emerging Turkmenistan midfielder Mingazov has bolstered the Skonto Riga ranks massively and they look a dangerous side. Daugava are good enough to keep Skonto at bay for a while but for all the game? I doubt it. For me, there’s value in the away win at evens.
Verdict: Skonto Riga to win at evens.