TFT Issue 90!
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Featured game
Hvidovre vs AGF Aarhus – away win with -1.5 handicap at 5/4.
Today’s featured game is the Danish 1st Division clash between rock bottom Hvidovre and league leaders AGF Aarhus.
Although nine points is big ask at this stage of the season, a dramatic win at home to newly-promoted Hobro last match will have given the hosts belief that they can avoid the drop. After all, Hvidovre have games in hand on all of the sides above them and it’s basically now or never for the hosts. Hvidovre’s problem is that they concede far too many goals, hence their league placing. They actually average conceding over two goals per game so it’s not difficult to see why they’re still rock bottom. Only naive Hobro and flambuoyant Skive have conceded more goals at home than Hvidovre have this season which explains why Hvidovre have lost seven out of their eleven home games. The absence of defenders Stefan Sorensen, Fosgaard, and Ziegler for this game don’t help them one bit, either. With those absences, I’d rate the chances of them keeping AGF Aarhus’ goal tally under two goals as about the same as I rate San Marino’s chances of winning the World Cup. Additionally, striker Invarsen is also absent, which won’t help the hosts here. They have to attack AGF Aarhus and that’s such a dangerous game to play. They’ve tried it against other big sides already in Division 1 this year and have lost three out of their four home games against Vejle, HB Koge, and Fredericia respectively, managing to surprised AB Copenhagen by winnning 2-1 in the other game. Hvidovre have already managed to concede six goals in three home games since returning from the winter break and now they have the daunting task of attacking what I can only describe as the best side in the division. Concerned? Hvidovre absolutely should be.
AGF Aarhus have no injury worries ahead of this game. Indeed the league leaders welcome back ex-Manchester United full-back Eckersley for this game so they’re even stronger than they were last match. Generally speaking, AGF Aarhus tend to sit back and counter-attack away from home because their defence is good and they know how to keep sides out. I don’t expect those tactics to change today, either. However, given that Hvidovre have to attack AGF Aarhus, the visitors can counter-attack swiftly and efficiently with old hands Peter Graulund and Soren Berg in attack to add class to the AGF Aarhus attack. Hell, they’ve even got Martin Jorgensen on the flank for them, who is easily one of the best Danish wingers over the past few years so you can see how dangerous AGF Aarhus can actually be in attack. Understandably, they tend to score goals at will and today, I suspect that’ll be rather a lot, even on counter-attacks. AGF Aarhus have won six out of seven games since the winter break, drawing the other encounter, so they bring strong momentum into the game. They’ve bagged seven goals in their last three away games and won 1-3 at a good AB Copenhagen side last match so why not again today?
Hvidovre bring momentum into this game and that may earn them a goal. However, I can see AGF Aarhus bagging three or four goals here with most of Hvidovre’s defence absent today. There’s a massive gap in quality and experience between the two sides and the hosts do have to attack their more illustrious opponents, worryingly. AGF Aarhus have banged three goals past AB Copenhagen and three goals past Viborg in their last two away games and they’re both some distance better than Hvidovre. The visitors today aren’t guaranteed promotion yet, happily, although logic says that they will be anyway. Either way, the -1.5 handicap on the far superior visitors today appeals to me a lot with the above in mind.
Team news – Hvidovre miss Ziegler, Sorensen, Ingvarsen, and Fosgaard.
Verdict: AGF Aarhus to beat the -1.5 handicap at 5/4.
Additional game:
Dinamo Bucharest vs Gloria Bistrita – home win with -1.5 handicap at 5/4.
I love Dinamo Bucharest’s ability to attack and score goals but their defence absolutely terrifies me for the majority of the time. This side can seriously concede goals against just about any side in Romania, which is why I don’t often handicap them.
However, I’m going to boldly do so today as Gloria Bistrita have some big names out and they’re also not a good goalscoring side on the road. Dinamo Bucharest are missing a couple of regulars themselves with playmaker Munteanu and engine Kone absent from midfield. Happily, midfield is their strongest area and with today’s midfield still continaing both Torje and Alexe, you know that there’s still goals in their side, especially with Ganea and Danciulescu in attack. Dinamo Bucharest have played really well lately too, encouragingly. They beat Unirea Urziceni 3-1 although that could have and should have been more. They drew 3-3 at league leaders Otelul Galati, who are notorious for their strong defence. Since then, Dinamo have miraculously kept two clean sheets as they won 0-2 at today’s opponents Gloria Bistrita in the Cupa Romaniei before winning the derby with bitter rivals Steaua Bucharest 0-1 a few days ago. Morale is high in the Dinamo camp and with no Liga side really seizing the lead at the moment, there may even be some dreams of the Liga title if they keep winning so the hosts will be well up for this game.
Gloria Bistrita are six points from safety with a game in hand on the sides below them so they’re not panicking and to be honest, I don’t see why they should. For me, the bottom four is very likely to stay as it is because of form and points difference. Gloria Bistrita are experienced enough to avoid defeat in most of their remaining games and I expect that to be done as efficiently as usual, although they’ll struggle with that approach today. Gloria Bistrita have already lost nine out of thirteen away games in the Liga whilst averaging conceding just under two goals per away game because their defensive tactics and counter-attacking efficiency just don’t work most of the time. They’ve not scored for two consecutive games now and have failed to score in three out of their five away games since returning from the winter break, scoring a grand total of two goals in five games. They rarely get annihlated, to their credit, but they do tend to end up losing games anyway. However, there’s a window of opportunity there for them to be handicapped by Dinamo Bucharest today as experienced defender Nastase is absent, which is a massive blow for the visitors. Additionally, fellow starting defender Cafasso is also absent, which sets the alarm bells ringing because if Gloria Bistrita can’t defend properly then they’ll be embarrassed here. Additionally, experienced midfielder Petre and veteran striker Coroian miss this game and all in all, there’s just too many important players absent for the visitors to resist Dinamo today, in my view. New hotshot striker Cavalli is still on the warpath and midfield duo Predescu and Bajenaru are threats but I don’t see anything in their team that concerns me a lot, basically.
Therefore, I’m electing to take the ever-dubious -1.5 handicap for the hosts here. With two regular defenders out for Gloria Bistrita, there’s a good chance for Dinamo to score at least twice here and although there’s always a chance that they’ll concede, I still think they’ll do enough to beat the handicap here, which is decently priced at 5/4.
Team news – Dinamo Bucharest miss Munteanu, Barboianu, Kone, and Dolha whereas Gloria Bistrita miss Nastase, D’Agostino, Cafasso, Petre, and Coroian.
Verdict: Dinamo Bucharest to beat the -1.5 handicap at 5/4.