TFT Issue 92!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
The bin
All Boys vs Argentinos Juniors – home win with draw no bet at 4/5.
All Boys have found their form lately just in time for their “El Clasico” with Argentinos Juniors. Their visitors have looked susceptible this season through not scoring enough goals so backing All Boys appealed to me here. However, the news that Fabbiani may be ruled out has put me off. He’s a fucking huge striker – weight-wise, not height-wise! – and could probably only last sixty minutes as it is but he’s a good goalscorer and them missing him here with his form of late is unthinkable so “no bet” for me.
Skonto Riga vs Liepajas Metalurgs – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Skonto have struggled to score goals so far this season without some of their stars whereas Liepajas Metalurgs sold their best two strikers pre-season so it looked a nailed under 2.5 goals here. However, Skonto Riga have star striker Nathan Junior back with emerging hot prospect Karasausks in attack and now that Blanks is an alternative and Turkmenistan attacking midfielder Mingazov is pulling the strings again, Skonto are going to be very potent again very soon. I can’t take the risk so I’m saying “no bet” here.
Double chance
1X:
Wacker Innsbruck
Dinamo Brest
Zulte-Waregem
HB Koge
Flora Tallinn
Vikingur Gotu
LOSC Lille
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund
Hannover 96
Bayern Munich
SSC Napoli
FK Ventspils
Suduva Marijampole
Inti Gas
Alianza Lima
Bogdanka Leczna
Polonia Warsaw
Tampines Rovers
Slovan Bratislava
Domzale
Real Betis Balompie
Young Boys Bern
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk
Featured game
HB Koge vs Viborg – home win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Division 1 game in Denmark between promotion hopefuls HB Koge and underachieving Viborg. Despite what the league placings may show, these two clubs are both large clubs so there should be at least a partial rivalry here.
However, I cannot help but lean towards HB Koge here. They lost 1-0 at Roskilde last match to end their unbeaten run since returning from the winter break, a run which stretched back six games, including five wins along the way. It was no surprise that they lost at stubborn Roskilde, though. HB Koge lost a few players pre-season that aided them in breaking sides apart to score goals, which harmed their campaign at the start. However, the brilliance of ageing Brazilian winger Fabinho coupled with the finesse of emerging striker Christoffersen has served HB Koge well this season, hence HB Koge being on the brink of promotion. It should come as no surprise that both were absent during Roskilde’s victory over HB Koge last match. When they both play, HB Koge look dangerous and score goals, which is precisely what I expect from them today we both return after their absence. HB Koge have already won nine out of twelve home games in Division 1 this season and with those two in scintillating form, I expect this one to be their tenth home win.
Visitors Viborg are not an easy side to beat, unfortunately. Because of their league placing, you could easily mistake them for a side that is really rather poor, which is some distance from the truth. Viborg’s problems stem from not scoring goals as their defence is very strong. Outside of the top four, only Fredericia have a better defensive record than Viborg so they need to be treated with respect here. However, their defence is what holds the team together – without it, they suffer. Importantly, defender Kiilerich is suspended for this game and that removes some of the stability that Viborg had at the back, which makes them vulnerable here. In Viborg’s defence, they have been scoring goals lately but it’s not a regular characteristic of theirs and I think they’ll struggle against a superior HB Koge side as a result today, particularly on the back of seven defeats in twelve away games. They’ve only scored in one out of their last three away games and that was against fellow relegation-battlers Fyn so it’s not particularly impressive. Viborg have lost twice away from home since returning from the winter break, one of which was against bitter rivals Skive, so you can see where I’m coming from here.
Although it’s far from ideal for Viborg, I’m confident that they’d take the draw here. HB Koge are a good side and Viborg know that. Viborg will park the bus here and that’ll make it hard for HB Koge to break through. However, I’m very confident that they’ll be able to do so with Fabinho and Christoffersen on the prowl so my call is a home win in this game, which is generously priced at 4/5.
Team news – Viborg miss Kiilerich.
Verdict: HB Koge to win at 4/5.
Additional games
Dinamo Brest vs Dnepr Mogilev – home win at 4/5.
For the second time this season, the bookies underestimate Dinamo Brest when playing at home and I just can’t fathom why. They’ve shipped five goals in three home games and considering that they’ve hosted reigning champions BATE Borisov and title challengers FC Minsk along the way, I don’t feel that’s a particularly bad record. They’ve drubbed Vitebsk 3-0 on the opening day of the season and generally done well on their artificial turf, as usual. Dinamo Brest aren’t a notoriously strong defensive team but they are notoriously strong in attack, which has been demonstrated frequently at home this season. In Mozolevski and Lebedev they do have goalscorers, especially with Tsevan supporting them. This side loves to attack and they don’t do anywhere near as well on any other ground than their own, understandably – that artificial turf does wonders for them.
Dnepr Mogilev have shown surprising resilience to Dinamo Brest’s artificial turf over the years, avoiding defeat here for their last four visits. However, the weakening of their squad pre-season has done them a lot of damage and it’s shown in their results thus far. Dnepr Mogilev defender Anton Matveenko has moved to say that the club do not have issues with paying the players’ wages as that was rumoured to be another reason for the club’s failure to win games. I personally attribute their consistent failures this season to the sale of…well, just about every good player they had. In midfield, they suffered the heaviest of their losses, waving goodbye to Karpovich (Vorskla), Bychenok (Dinamo Minsk), Kislyakov (Mazeikiai), Tupichy (Vitebsk), and Yasinski (Dinamo Minsk). Three of those were regulars! Additionally, star striker Yurchanka moved on (Shakhtyor Soligorsk) as did his strike partner Turlin (Belshina) and back-up striker Lyasyuk (Gomel). They even lost squad rotation defender Zhevnerov to Dinamo Minsk and considering that they’ve only brought in a handful of average and/or unproven players, is it any wonder that they’ve lost four out of six Vysshaya Liga games already this season? The only surprises that I’ve seen from Dnepr Mogilev this season are that they somehow managed to avoid defeat against BATE Borisov and new-look Neman Grodno. Looking at their fixture list, I would have expected them to lose every game so far this season perhaps barring the trip to impotent Naftan (which Dnepr laughably lost 6-0) and at home to giants Dinamo Minsk, who are struggling to score goals. I just can’t see things getting better for them! They’re in such a terrible state with few decent players left and I expect them to struggle here.
You have a chance in Brest if you score goals and that’s what has always aided Dnepr Mogilev on trips here before. They’ve lost that power now and that makes this a very tough game indeed. For me, Dinamo Brest shouldn’t be as long as 4/5 here with the above in mind so my call is the home win on Dinamo Brest’s fabled artificial turf.
Verdict: Dinamo Brest to win at 4/5.
Hajduk Split vs Cibalia Vinkovci – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Four games remain in the Prva Liga campaign and realistically, it’s already over for both of these sides. As usual, Dinamo Zagreb have crusied to first place and as usual, Hajduk Split have cruised to second place. Cibalia Vinkovci have launched a somewhat laboured European push but have failed, in my eyes – they’re not going to get four wins from their last four games and that’s what they need to be looking at to keep the dream alive.
Therefore, we have a pretty redundant game here, which usually means sides go into “auto-pilot”, as I call it. Effectively, this means Hajduk will push on to try and score goals and win the game to appease their vociferous support whereas Cibalia will look to try and get a draw here to keep their pride.
Defensively, the only side to concede less away goals than Cibalia this season is champions Dinamo Zagreb so you can see why I think Hajduk will struggle here. Cibalia don’t score many and I doubt they’ll score today with star striker Bartolovic and midfield support Radotic both absent for this game. In fact, no Prva Liga side has scored as few away goals as Ciblia have this season so it’s no surprise that only three out of their thirteen away games in the Prva Liga have gone over 2.5 goals and all three of those games involved Cibalia scoring, something which I doubt that we’ll see today.
So it all boils down to how Hadjuk approach this game, really. They’ve struggled to consistently break sides apart since star midfield Ibricic moved to Lokomotiv Moscow in January and now that playmaker Anas Sharbini is out, I think we’ll see even more of that struggling against one of the best defensive units in Croatia.
My concern here is if Hajduk get sloppy at the back and concede as I do expect them to win the game, ultimately. Since they sold star defender Strinic to Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk in January, they’ve looked dodgy at the back and with number one goalkeeper Subasic absent today, I’m concerned about the cohesion between defence and goalkeeper. However, it’s going to take a monunmental fuck up for Hajduk to concede here given Cibalia’s defensive nature and absent players – I’m just hoping that they don’t do it!
With the above in mind, there’s value in under 2.5 goals at 4/5 here. The game is redundant so it should be fairly relaxed. Four out of the last six meetings between these two sides in all competitions have gone under 2.5 goals and the absence of a proper playmaker for Hajduk versus a stout Cibalia defence makes this game another under 2.5 goals game to me today.
Team news – Hajduk Split miss Subasica, Buljat, and Anas Sharbini whereas Cibalia Vinkovic miss Bartolovic and Radotic.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Marila Pribram vs Jablonec – away win at evens.
I appreciate that Pribram are rather hard to break down on their own turf but that’s all they are. They’re not a goal threat whatsoever, which is why they struggle to stay in the Gambrinus Liga every season. They rely heavily on their reliable and experienced defence and they’re fortunate enough to have a pretty decent one.
However, today they’re hosting one of the most potent sides in the Czech Republic currently – Jablonec. Jablonec aren’t a terrific away side but they’re still one of the top dogs in the Gambrinus Liga, even without departed star striker Pekhart, and odds of evens on them winning this game are a joke, in my eyes! Striker Lafata has stepped up to the plate well though, as you’d experience an experienced marksmen like himself to do. There’s plenty of pace in the Jablonec attack, especially support coming from the likes of Pitak and Jarolim in midfield so they are a threat.
So why are Jablonec evens here? They’re definitely the better side here. Has it all stemmed from their bizarre defeat at Usti nad Labem about a week ago? Admittedly, it was a stunning result but Jablonec did destroy them in the game – they must have missed at least three open goals – it just wasn’t their day. They’re still a very strong side – let’s not lose sight of that!
Returning to Pribram – they’ve lost five consecutive games ahead of this match, scoring once and conceding eleven times along the way, which is a lot for them. Their 3-0 defeat at impotent Ceske Budejovice last match was too much for the backroom staff though, and subsequently, boss Nadvornik was fired and the hosts have no manager for today’s game as a result. To make matters worse for Pribram – if possible – they’re missing one of the key parts of their defensive unit in goalkeeper Hruska, who is suspended.
Take all the above into account. Then consider that Jablonec have won three out of their last four meetings with Pribram and that they’ve won two out of their last three trips here. For me, the odds of evens are too generous here and should be taken advantage of today.
Team news – Marila Pribram miss Hruska.
Verdict: Jablonec to win at evens.
MTK Budapest vs Szolnoki MAV – lay MTK Budapest at evens.
Disregard this one if you wish as it’s more of a speculative punt based on fact…
MTK Budapest have long been associated with match-fixing. They frequently throw games, which is a shame as they do produce some marvellous youngsters from time to time. However, the rumour is now that the club want to be relegated as they’d rather leave on a free transfer – as is written into their contracts – than keep fixing games. The players also feel that they’re not being paid enough. Last match, MTK Budapest goalkeeper Szatmari actually left the field mid-game and said he no longer wanted to participate in “jerkwater affairs”, which says a lot about the morale of the team currently. They’re free-falling and with the above in mind, it’s no surprise to see it.
I’m pretty dismissive of newly-promoted Szolnoki MAV because they’re not a very good side but considering that they’ve given Gyori ETO FC a run for their money and held Budapest Honved to a draw lately, I don’t see why they can’t “spring a surprise” here. I don’t think they can avoid the drop, no matter how well they do – they’d have to win all their remaining games to stay up, realistically speaking – but they’d be attacked by their fans if they gave anything but 100% here.
Therefore, I think laying MTK Budapest at evens is worth a punt here. Hell, even MTK Budapest boss Garami said lately “I myself can’t save MTK Budapest from relegation – only the players can” which speaks volumes.
Verdict: Lay MTK Budapest at evens.
FK Jurmala vs Daugava Daugavpils – under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
I’m not sure where the bookies get these odds from whatsoever. Seriously! Eight out of the last ten games in all competitions between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals. I appreciate that Daugava were relegated during one of the seasons for financial reasons but normal service was resumed when they were promoted because Daugava always play the same brand of football – boring and defensive. They score a goal and they sit on it – that’s all they do. They’re not a flambuoyant attacking side like fellow Virsliga outfits FK Ventspils or Skonto Riga – they’re much more defensive than that.
So are they still the same way? Of course they are. They’ve gone under 2.5 goals in five out of their six Virsliga games this season with the only exception being their 3-1 win at home to newly-promoted Guilbene 2005 on the opening day of the season. They’ve held both good and bad sides to their droll style of football with only Liepajas Metalurgs having broken rank and beaten them this season. Daugava faced newly-promoted FC Jurmala, who are naturally FK Jurmala’s bitter rivals, and won 2-0. Why would that improve today?
FK Jurmala have started the season poorly, don’t get me wrong. They’re not a bad side though – fifth most seasons, in my eyes. They’ve lost three out of three in the Virsliga so far this season and shipped twelve goals along the way and perhaps the bookies have read too much into that, or perhaps they’ve confused them with FC Jurmala? FK Jurmala have faced both FK Ventspils and Liepajas Metalurgs in two of those three games, which are expected defeats for any side in Latvia barring their fellow title rivals. The 2-3 defeat at home to Jelgava was a tad surprising but not an impossible result.
Therefore, I can’t help but feel that there’s a window of opportunity to exploit here. FK Jurmala are a decent side – not as good as Daugava, admittedly, but good enough to keep the score down. I think Daugava should win the game but odds offered for them to win this game are a joke. FK Jurmala +1.5 appeals to me here but overall, taking under 2.5 goals at 6/5 looks something of a gift to me today.
Team news – Daugava Daugavpils miss Timofejevs.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Wisla need to decide who their target man is and keep him there as it’s affecting their game plan now. Meliksson and Malecki and provide the bullets for any target man in the Ekstraklasa but who is going to finish them off? Genkov was signed to do that for Wisla but he’s absent today through injury so old hand Zurawski is expected to slip into his boots but he’s not very mobile nowadays so it’ll hurt Wisla’s counter-attacks. Wisla suffered at Slask last match, losing 2-0 with the towering Bulgarian absent – what’s to say they’ll manage to find the net here? Gornik welcome back integral defender Banas and he holds this Gornik defence together. Gornik have shipped a lot of goals away from home this season but they’ve generally been a lot more assured since returning from the winter break. They’ve gone under 2.5 goals in three out of their last four away games and why not again today? Wisla won’t have too many issues getting at Gornik down the flanks but with old hands Banas and ex-Wisla defender Jop in the middle, I don’t see Wisla scoring many, if indeed any. Gornik themselves miss players – namely midfield duo Bonin and Przybylski – who are both important for them. However, they should be decent at the back and I don’t see Wisla doing enough damage to them for them to concede a lot of goals here. My biggest concern is that Jop and Banas capitalise on atypical Wisla shoddy defending from set pieces but even so – I just don’t think we’ll see many goals here from either side and thus my call is under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Team news – Wisla Krakow miss Genkov, Boguski, Boukhari, Bunoza, and Lobodzinski whereas Gornik Zabrze miss Bonin and Przybylski.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.