TFT Issue 96!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Sporting Braga vs SL Benfica – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League Semi-Final game in Portugal between Sporting Braga and SL Benfica. The first leg ended 2-1 in favour of SL Benfica so the tie is finely poised ahead of tonight’s clash at the Estadio AXA.
Sporting Braga’s home record domestically looks a lot stronger than it actually is, in my view. You can’t argue with statistics, that’s for sure, and it’s definitely worth noting that Braga have only lost three times in fourteen Liga Sagres home games this season whilst averaging scoring two goals per home game. Statistically speaking, that makes Braga a dangerous home side to bet against but I’d oppose that with the fact that they sold two vital players back in January and they’ve not replaced either of them adequately, denying Braga a solid number one and their best striker. Braga were built as a unit by opposing manager Jorge Jesus a few years ago and were designed to function as a unit and to their credit, it’s not shown anywhere near as much as it should have done that they’ve made some heavy losses in January so credit to Braga for that. However, I think tonight they’re playing one of a few sides that can exploit their weaknesses tonight and I expect to see that happen as a result. Braga will battle on until the end of any game and that’s what has made this a nightmare away game for Benfica in recent years. However, this side has to be tired as they inexplicably fielded virtually a full-strength team at home against Uniao de Leiria at weekend, drawing a blank in a 0-0 draw. That’s the story of Braga’s home games since returning from the winter break, really – not winning enough games that they should be. They’ve won just three times in their last seven Liga Sagres home games and although this is obviously a UEFA Europa League game, I’m going to view it as if it were a domestic game as that’s how I expect it to be played out. Braga got the better of Benfica in a 2-1 win here back in March but don’t lose sight of Benfica playing that game with ten men for the majority of it due to holding midfielder Javi Garcia receiving his marching orders. Braga have some talented players and they’re all workers but do they have enough to claim a much-needed win here? I just don’t think they have the necessary firepower to defeat Benfica here, in all honesty, and having played a full strength team at weekend, they’re sure to be tired as it’s their third game in seven days.
Therefore, SL Benfica must look to capitalise and get the early goal here. Unlike their hosts, Benfica boast a wealth of options in their squad and rested almost all of their first team during their trip to Olhanense at weekend so they’ll be fresh and raring to go tonight. I don’t think it’s worth me explaining to you all that Benfica are the better side here – just look at their attacking power! Aimar, Cardozo, Saviola, Gaitan, Jara, and even adventurous full-back Coentrao! There’s a whole host of attacking potential here and against a weary Braga side, I really fancy them to claim another win here to set up a mouth-watering final with what should be Porto, barring a miracle for Villarreal CF.
Braga have played a hell of a lot of games this season, more than they’re used to, in fact – and it shows. They look tired. They’re really hard workers and Benfica don’t often enjoy these kind of games but I think they will counter-attack in deadly fashion tonight – we all know how good they are at it. The scoreline in Lisbon last week should have been more comprehensive than it was, in my view – the chance is there for that to be corrected tonight. SL Benfica boss Jorge Jesus knows his old team very well indeed and I think that gives Benfica yet another advantage here so my call is the away win with draw no bet cover at 4/5.
Team news – Sporting Braga miss Quim and Vinicius whereas SL Benfica miss Salvio.
Verdict: SL Benfica to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Additional game
Montana vs Rakovski – home win with -1.5 handicap at 3/2.
I really like these odds!
Montana claimed a vital three points with a somewhat surprising win at Chernomorets Burgas just three days ago, winning 0-1. That gives them a great lift ahead of this important game as they previously hadn’t won for four games in a row. Montana have become a lot more attack-minded in the second half of the campaign, and much more experienced too. They’ve looked dangerous in their home games with the only side to win here since the winter break being CSKA Sofia in a rather flattering 1-4 fashion. Aside from that, Montana have held Lokomotiv Plovdiv to a 1-1 draw and beaten Beroe 2-1 and Kaliakra 3-2. As you can plainly see, although Montana’s defence needs work, their attack is improving with the likes of Luiz Eduardo, Chipilov, Michev, and Hristov all contributing to the cause. With momentum behind them and a good attack in their ranks, I fancy attack-minded Montana to take another step toward securing their stay in the A PFG today against an inferior Rakovski, hence the selection.
To be horribly blunt, Rakovski are just shit. What’s worse is that they actually know it, too – they just can’t do anything about it. In their defence, they’ve woken up during their home games and have won actually won three home games on the bounce now. However, away from home, they’re nothing but cannon fodder. They’ve not scored a goal away from home since November, losing five away games consecutively along the way. I asked myself the question as to why Rakovski are so poor away from home and it’s basically two very simple but problematic areas; conceding too many and not scoring enough. With their best striker being Rusev, it’s not hard to see why they don’t score many – enough said. Defensively, they have tried to bolster their ranks by acquiring Levski Sofia duo Vasilev (goalkeeper) and Shtarkov (defender) in January but it’s not done enough, really. They chop and change their goalkeeper every other match, which does nothing to help their defence. Shtarkov has played almost every game since signing from Levski Sofia and he’s done his utmost to organise them but to little avail. Unfortunately for Rakovski, Shtarkov misses this game through suspension so they should struggle even more here, in my view. Rakovski have already lost ten out of twelve on the road this season and they’ve lost six of those ten games by two goals or more so I think the opportunity is there for Rakovski to be comprehensively beaten today by Montana.
Food for thought – Montana have won just five home games in the A PFG this season but have beaten the -1.5 handicap three times during those five wins. They’ve also bagged seven goals in their last four home games despite facing two sides that are considerably better than they are along the way. Put that record against a Rakovski side that not only defends poorly but rarely score on the road and you can see why I think 3/2 is a generous price on Montana -1.5 here, risky though it obviously is.
Team news – Rakovski miss Shtarkov.
Verdict: Montana to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/4.