TFT Issue 97!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Zalaegerszegi TE vs MTK Budapest – home win at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Soproni Liga encounter between Zalaegerszegi TE (ZTE) and MTK Budapest. The hosts are still battling for a UEFA Europa League place whereas MTK are battling against relegation so there should be no shortage of motivation today.
ZTE have been strong at home this season, as usual. They’ve won nine times in thirteen home games whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per home game. They’ve not been particularly efficient of late, however, winning just once in their past five games overall. Nonetheless, since returning from their winter break, ZTE have won three out of their five Soproni Liga home games and drew the other two games so you can see their strength on their own turf. If they win this game today – as they have for three consecutive seasons now – then they stand a very good chance of securing UEFA Europa League football next season, which is obviously their aim. ZTE are a good side and always seem to have that special something required to score goals from nowhere, be it Prince Rajcomar, Zsolt Balazs, or even Djordje Kamber, and that’s what makes them dangerous today, even though they’re not particularly in-form.
However, the woeful scenario of MTK Budapest continues to be one that I have to try and go against, irrespective of their 1-0 win last match. You may recall from my last MTK preview that goalkeeper Szartmari stormed off in the middle of the game and said he didn’t want to play for “jerkwater” any longer so I doubt we’ll see him today! Their manager has admitted that he doesn’t know how to save MTK from relegation; only the players can. The theory is that MTK are deliberately trying to get relegated so that the players can leave the club due to clauses in their respective contracts and thus they can earn more money elsewhere and also be outside of this match-fixing business that MTK always seem to be in the middle of. It’s a shame because MTK are a national treasure when it comes to producing home-grown talent but there’s so much corruption there that the football team is suffering and may yet be relegated this season.
The above isn’t all, however. As far as team news goes, MTK miss half their defence in Vukmir and Vadnai today and considering that number one goalkeeper Szatmari is still unlikely to be playnig, MTK have a lot of defensive issues ahead of this game. MTK have already lost eight times on the road in thirteen Soproni Liga games this season. With the above in mind, I find it very hard to see this being anything but their fourteenth away defeat of the season against a superior ZTE side.
Team news – MTK Budapest miss Vukmir, Szatmari, Vadnai, and Wolfe.
Verdict: Zalaegerszegi TE to win at 9/10.
Additional games
RoPS Rovaniemi vs Jaro Pietarsaari – under 2.5 goals at evens.
It’s the first Veikkausliiga game of the season for newly-promoted RoPS Rovaniemi and instead of it being an affair that they’ve looked forward to for months and months, it’s become something of a negative for RoPS following the scandal in Finland over the past few months. You may or may not have heard of the match-fixing that was supposedly happening in northern Finland during the Liiga Cup? Either way, one thing led to another, arrests were made, and some players were fired, in a nutshell. A portion of that is irrelevant but given that RoPS were at the centre of the controversy, it’s no surprise whatsoever that they’ve fired nine of their players and replaced them with low-quality players from the Ykkonen and Kakkonen respectively. RoPS used to have a large Zambian contingent of players thanks to Zambian legend Zeddy Sailetti, who I believe is still part of the backroom staff at RoPS. However, they were all fired during the controversy so instead of the strong and fast-paced attacking football that RoPS used to play, they now have to focus a lot more on their defence and build from there as it’s their only strength now. Credit to RoPS though – their defence has looked solid in the few instances I’ve seen it in recent times and although it’s sad to see that it’s come to this, that’s simply where RoPS are at right now. The bottom line is that they’re probably going to be relegated this season – they just don’t have enough firepower, in my view.
Visitors Jaro Pietarsaari are a better side than RoPS, to be blunt. However, goalscoring is not an ally of theirs, despite Niang and Zeze in attack usually forming a very dangerous partnership, particularly on counter-attacks. I think it’s fair to say that Eremenko has done a good job at Jaro since he was appointed although Jaro’s biggest blow this season is that his son has left Jaro. Alexei Eremenko joined Jaro part-way through the campaign last year and made an immense difference because he’s two or three classes above Veikkausliiga football, to be honest. He scored and created a lot of goals for Jaro but they’ve not really replaced him. Therefore, Jaro are left with two decent strikers and no consistent way to get the ball to them. Defensively, there’s still work to do for Jaro but I don’t expect their defence to be tested much today by an unfamiliar and unconvincing RoPS Rovaniemi attack anyway.
With the above in mind, I have to look at evens being a generous price on under 2.5 goals here. RoPS have no attack left and Jaro lack a good playmaker. Jaro could edge this one but I’m not touching the 1×2 market at all. Instead, I’m going to stay with under 2.5 goals as the odds seem surprisingly good for the selection.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Legia Warsaw vs Korona Kielce – over 2.5 goals at 28/25.
Korona aren’t generally an over 2.5 goals team but that should definitely chance today.
First of all, I don’t expect Legia to be too motivated for this game. They won the Puchar Polski just a few days ago against Lech Poznan, which guarantees them European football next season either way. However, the events both on and off the field in that bad-tempered affair mean that Legia are not allowed any fans for this game and it’s expected that Lech Poznan will share a similar fate too. On top of that, Legia played 120 minutes with Lech before eventually winning on penalties and considering that the game in question was just three days ago, I think it’s fair to observe that Legia will be tired here. Additionally, they miss their two regular centre-backs Astiz and Jedrejczyk for this game, not to mention back-up defender Choto (as usual), so Legia are not well-placed to do well in this game! They always play with fear in their eyes anyway, Legia, and it’s no surprise when you consider that their club is effectively ran by some nutcase mafia types that scare the players senseless. Legia don’t need to win this game but they’ve got the firepower to cause problems so I do expect them to score at least once here.
Helpfully, Korona aren’t the best defensively so they’ll probably concede here at somepoint. Happily, midfielder Sobolewski is absent for the visitors, as is defensive lynchpin Stano, so the visitors are almost certain to concede here. However, it simply cannot be denied that Korona do have a lot of firepower and with no regular centre-backs available for Legia today, it could be the day that those striker shine. Niedzielan is an old hand in this division; he knows how to find the net. The same goes for Brazilian accomplice Edu Andradina. Additionally, their other two attackers are Janczyk and Korzym, both of which were raised by hosts Legia so they have additional motivation to score here if fielded.
Korona are dangerously near the drop zone currently – they need to start picking up points to get themselves away from the mire that will inevitably ensue as there are a lot of teams in this relegation battle. Korona have a big chance today, especially with the news that Legia are unlikely to keep Skorza as boss despite winning the Puchar Polski for them, such is the impatient ways of Legia. Korona have a big window of opportunity and they have the firepower to take advantage of it too so why not the surprise away win today? Either way, my call is over 2.5 goals as it’s priced rather long when you consider the above information.
Team news – Legia Warsaw miss Jedrzejczyk, Astiz, and Choto whereas Korona Kielce miss Sobolewski, Stano, Pilarz, Kuzera, Maliszewski, Nowak, and Malarczyk.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 28/25.