TFT Issue 312!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
AC Milan vs Arsenal – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in Italy between AC Milan and Arsenal.
I’m not sure I need to write a preview for this one, really! I’m sure a lot of you either have or do watch both of these sides regularly and are aware of their respective qualities. Italian sides generally struggle to deal with pace, which Arsenal have a lot of. However, AC Milan have a wealth of attacking power and Arsenal cannot defend against anyone, let alone keep a clean sheet. Therefore, both sides scoring should be reasonably likely in this one.
Even if it’s not, I wouldn’t rule out a heavy win for either side. AC Milan have much more experience in their squad than Arsenal do and I’ve seen them destroy better sides than Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League. They were very good against Barcelona earlier this season, in fact – they were just facing a better side and therefore ended up losing the game. Arsene Wenger is an outstanding manager, though. He has steered Arsenal to strong victories in Italy before and he knows how to do it again.
I’d not touch the 1×2 market here, to be honest. A lot are jumping on Milan and I can understand why with their experience. I can’t write off a pacey Arsenal side here, though. I think we’re in for a cracking game either way and over 2.5 goals appeals to me a lot at evens with the contrasting styles mentioned above in mind.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Additional games
The Strongest vs Santos – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Fun, fun, fun! You can’t beat the Copa Libertadores for games played at a height that would send most pilots dizzy! Yes, this game in Bolivia is being played at around 3600 metres above sea level, which explains the odds, in case you are not familiar with South American football. Yes, Santos are a lot better than The Strongest but that doesn’t seem to be as applicable when your players are struggling to breathe due to the altitude.
Altitude is a perpetual issue for away sides and Santos are no different. In my experience of continental games in South America, the way sides try to combat the altitude problem is to attack early on, score goals, and try desperately to hold it. Some sides can manage it – Universidad de Chile managed it in Quito, Ecuador last year – but it’s not something that talent allows you to do; just luck.
Santos are a very “overs” side anyway with an all out attack policy. They’re one of the best attacking sides on the continent and with Neymar in their ranks, it’s no surprise at all. Santos have a whole host of talented players when it comes to scoring goals and I do think they’ll bag a couple here. However, they cannot defend and at this height, they will be forced to sit back and defend at some point, as uncharacteristic as it will be for them. They’re no good at defending; that’s why they don’t attempt it. At high altitude, though, they will have no choice. When attacked, Santos are useless and thus The Strongest could and should score at least one themselves.
Unfortunately, the bookies recognise the difficulty of playing at this height and thus I think the odds set on the 1×2 market are about right. However, I’m taking over 2.5 goals here because I expect Santos to approach the game like I mentioned above and I expect The Strongest to retaliate in typical Bolivian fashion. Don’t be surprised if most of the goals come in the second-half – that’s what often happens at altitude due to tiredness and sometimes dizziness (thus leading to mistakes). Either way, if this game goes as I expect it to then over 2.5 goals looks a steal at evens.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Deportivo Tachira vs Corinthians – lay Corinthians at 11/10
Alright, this game is played at altitude too but won’t have anywhere near as heavy an impact as Santos’ trip to Bolivia. Deportivo Tachira play at around 800 metres above sea level so something comparible to that of Evian Thonon Gaillard in Ligue 1 in France. The home advantage is still there and thus they should be treated with respect.
Deportivo Tachira are to be feared for their experience on the continent too. They’re one of the biggest sides in Venezuela and have frequented continental competition as a result. In the past couple of years, Venezuelan sides are growing much stronger and are proving to be much harder to beat. It’s no coincidence that this has happened at the same time as their national team’s strengthening too. Caracas were insanely good over the past couple of years and although I don’t rate Deportivo Tachira as being as good as their bitter rivals, they’re certainly not a side to write off, especially at home.
Corinthians are easily the richest club on the continent but they never impress away from home. They’ve got some big names in their squad and very good individuals to boot but this side does not score enough goals away from home – period. They rarely manage it in Brazil, let alone outside of Brazil. I thoroughly expect Corinthians to take their usual approach here by aiming for the boring 0-1 win but it generally doesn’t work that way on this continent. You can almost always expect the home side to score and I do expect that here. This should be a much harder game than the odds suggest and thus I feel that laying Corinthians is a good option here.
Verdict: Lay Corinthians at 11/10.
Team news
UEFA Champions League:
AC Milan – Cassano, Yepes, Gattuso, Merkel, and Strasser are absent.
SL Benfica – Garcia is absent. Maxi Pereira returns. Yannick Djalo may debutise.
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Jaro Pietarsaari – Aho and Brunell are absent. Niang is a doubt.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Latikka is absent.
Greek Super League:
Doxa Dramas – Sikalias, Soiledis, Aboubakari, and Welington are absent.
Kerkyra – Martin is absent.
Levadiakos – Kotitsas is absent. Mano may debutise.
Panaitolikos – Onuatsi is absent.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Capelli is absent. Bellini, Bonaventura, Carmona, Cigarini, Lucchini, and Tiribocchi are doubts.
Genoa – Kaladze, Mesto, Gilardino, Moretti, Bovo, and Antonelli are absent.
Parma – Galloppa is absent. Santacroce is a doubt.
Juventus – Pepe and Marrone are absent.