The New Saints vs Bohemians
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA European Champions League Qualifier in Wales between The New Saints and Bohemians. Both of these sides are old hands when it comes to competing in the preliminary rounds of this competition; it’s just the latter stages that they have problems reaching for obvious reasons. With that in mind, I’m expecting a somewhat shrewd and calculating game from two very tactical sides.
Hosts The New Saints already have a big disadvantage ahead of this game that they’re going to have to work very hard to get around; match practice. They’ve not played a competitive game since last season so their experience and determination will be vital today. They put up a good show in the first leg in Ireland but lost 1-0. The result in itself isn’t a bad one as the Irish are widely considered to boast better sides than the Welsh primarily because any good Welsh side goes to play in England so TNS won’t be too disheartened from the result. However, TNS’ main problem in European football is scoring goals, something they’ve managed to do in just one of their last three home games in this competition. It was uplifting to see a good display from their bitter rivals Llanelli in Lithuania against Tauras Taurage so maybe TNS will take heart from that. After all, Welsh domestic football is a lot better than it used to be; the gap in quality is closing, albeit rather slowly.
To qualify for the latter stages, however, they have to take on the tenacious Irish side Bohemians, who are arguably the best side in the country at the moment. Bohemians’ predominant strength is in defence so the 1-0 result in Dublin will do them just fine; they’re happy to defend leads like that. Unfortunately for their hosts, Bohemians have become rather adept at it as years have gone by. Indeed, Salzburg of Austria very nearly got a nasty surprise last year when they expected an easy ride against Bohemians and got anything but an easy ride, drawing 1-1 in Austria and needing a 1-0 win in Ireland to qualify. Bohemians don’t score that many goals but with a defence like theirs against a team like TNS – they don’t need to. They have a habit of taking a token goal from a game but I’d be lying if I said that I thought TNS would win this game so I don’t envision a goal being necessary for the visitors.
I’m expecting Bohemians to sit back and counter-attack effectively today in their typical mechanical fashion. They’re the better of the two sides so should have a solid grip on the game. However, neither side scores excessively in European football and the side that need to score most are playing against a very solid defence. For me, taking under 2.5 goals in what should be a very droll and tactical affair at 3/4 is an absolute gift; I’d never have priced it longer than 1/2.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Renova Dzepciste vs Omonia Nicosia – lay Omonia Nicosia at 6/5.
This is a dubious call as Renova haven’t been exposed to as much European football as they’d no doubt have liked although they did put up a credible showing against Belarus’ Dinamo Minsk last season, losing out 3-2 on aggregate in the UEFA Europa League Qualifiers. Renova were trounced 3-0 in Cyprus, which is to be expected for an inexperienced club in European football against a superior host. Renova aren’t capable of turning this around, realistically, not that they’ll adopt that mentality, however. They’re going to try as hard as they did in the first leg to do some damage here and although I’m not sure that they’ll win it, I do think that they can take a draw. Omonia are a superior side but they’ve already done the damage; they’ve got no reason to do well here. Omonia have lost their last two European away games against SC Vaslui of Romania and Manchester City of England respectively so they’re not the greatest travellers, although it is worth noting that their last away win in Europe came in the Republic of Macedonia against Milano Kumanovo, so do approach this game with caution. However, I can’t see a poor travelling side being overly concerned with what happens in this game whereas the hosts are from a very proud nation and I expect that pride to motivate them to get at least a draw on home soil at decent odds of 6/5.
Verdict: Lay Omonia Nicosia at 6/5.
HB Torshavn vs Salzburg – under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
I’ve mentioned before that I feel Faroese football is on the rise and I’m hoping that Meistardeildin champions HB Torshavn exemplify that today. Don’t get me wrong – I’m not expecting them to win the game – but I’m expecting them to keep the scoreline respectable. They’ve had a few humblings at home over the years in European football, as you’d expect, and were flattened by their opponents today 5-0 in Austria. However, I think that works in HB’s favour on the basis that they now have nothing to lose so they can approach this game freely whereas their opponents must remain at least partially well-marshalled to “do the job”, so to speak. I think 5-0 is an excessive scoreline for a side that has just sold their best striker and haven’t found an adequate replacement and I’m hoping to see signs of that tonight. Salzburg failed to win at SV Kapfenberg in the Bundesliga at weekend as expected as they’re simply missing their “route one” attacker Marc Janko. Let’s face it – a 6’6″ striker (or whatever height he is!) is always a bloody good option to have if things aren’t going your way and Salzburg used that option so many times that now they have to get used to life without it and I think they’re going to find it tough, just like Rapid Vienna did when they sold Maierhofer to Wolverhampton Wanderers. I think Salzburg really should win this game but not in an overly convincing fashion. I’ve got a 0-1 and 0-2 scoreline in my head but I do feel that under 2.5 goals is worth a shot today as I can’t see where a lot of goals would come from, although risk is definitely encountered here!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Recommended bets:
TNS vs Bohemians under 2.5 goals & Koper vs Dinamo Zagreb over 2.5 goals at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Renova Dzepciste vs Omonia Nicosia (5) under 2.5 goals
HB Torshavn vs Salzburg (7) under 2.5 goals
The New Saints vs Bohemians (8) 0-0
Dinamo Tirana vs Sheriff Tiraspol (6) 1-1
Koper vs Dinamo Zagreb (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Rudar Pljevlja vs Litex Lovech (6) 0-1
Singaporean S-League:
Armed Forces vs Geylang United (6) 2-1
Swedish Superettan:
Orgryte vs Jonkopings Sodra (4)
Swiss Super League:
Basel vs FC Zurich (7) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!