Porto vs Manchester City
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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA Europa League game in Oporto between Porto and Manchester City.
I find it very hard to judge as to which sides are taking this competition seriously and which sides aren’t but I still expect goals in this game either way.
However, both Porto and City have named strong squads for this game so I think it’s reasonable to expect a good game here. The Estadio do Dragao is no stranger to good games, either. There have been many over the years and I’ve even been lucky enough to be a spectator at one of them myself a few years back. There’s always a tremendous atmosphere here and thus you’ll rarely find goalless games here.
Porto are an attacking side, which is handy because their defence is vulnerable. Otamendi gets booked too easily and Rolando’s positioning is occasionally susceptible although his ability to head the ball is excellent. At full-back, Porto have two adventurous players, especially Alvaro Pereira, and thus they’re always susceptible to the counter-attack and generally concede in more games than they should as a result. Going forward, though, they’ve got good attackers in the likes of Hulk, James Rodriguez, and Janko, if the latter is eligible to play. Hulk is a bit hit-and-miss as we saw in Porto’s last game against Uniao de Leiria at weekend but Porto’s Colombian playmaker has a consistency that is rare in a player so young. This kid is going places, I assure you! Porto weren’t breaking through Leiria well enough at weekend (although big Janko was guilty of missing a couple of good chacnes) but when he came on, he made a goal and scored one in no time. He lends a composure and incision to the team that they frankly don’t have without him so let’s hope he starts here.
City can take advantage of Porto’s defensive laxity but will they get caught out themselves? Maybe. The Toure brothers have returned but whether they’ll be too tired to start this game or not remains to be seen. City should have still have more than enough firepower to score a goal or two against reigning champions Porto but I won’t betting on them winning here. Generally speaking, very few sides win here but then again, I’ve not seen Porto look as predictable in recent years as they are now. City have some terrific players when it comes to attacking and if they feel like it then they should gain a credible result here.
Balotelli returns here and he needs some match practice so he should feature at some point. City have enough strength to trouble Porto although Porto arguaby play better football due to the familiarity of their squad and the respective cultures in their squad. For me, this game should be a clear over 2.5 goals although it’ll take a braver man than me to call a winner here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Manchester United – away win at 5/6.
Much like in the secondary featured game of the day, it depends how interested each of these two sides are as to the outcome of the game. However, I do like the odds on United winning it and I’ll explain why.
Ajax are a very good passing side. With Eriksen pulling the strings, this side has the potential to unlock even the most stubborn defence. However, they have two big problems; they don’t take their chances against big sides/tough defences and they can’t defend in their full-back areas. Ajax rarely keep clean sheets and rarely finish chances off with any conviction against good sides and to top that they’ve been pretty poor lately. Ajax will be motivated here, especially given that their troublesome board has finally been dismissed, but they’re not convincing right now.
Unlike their hosts, United have got a big squad to call upon. I expect Fergie to rest a few players here but there are some players that need match practice, namely Smalling, Jones, Cleverley, Nani, and Young, all of which have been called into the squad for this game. I suspect Rooney won’t start but Hernandez should. As you can clearly see, this is shaping up to be a pretty damn strong United side and thus I have to take them seriously here. United have a very good away record in European football and unless Ajax really turn it on here, I suspect that record will continue after tonight.
Over 2.5 goals interests me but I’m just not convinced that Ajax will take their chances so I’ll opt for the away win at 5/6 as I expect Fergie to field a side strong enough to overcome injury-struck and defensively-inept Ajax.
Verdict: Manchester United to win at 5/6.
AZ Alkmaar vs Anderlecht – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
The usual Netherlands-Belgium rivalry tends to provide a sufficient level of motivation for games such as these and I think the scope is there for plenty of goals too.
AZ have been immense this season although they’re looking a little weak right now for some reason. It can’t be purely because of Wernbloom’s departure but whatever it is is making AZ not as reliable. That said, they’re a good home side and you’ll struggle to find a game where they don’t score. Goalscoring is simply what AZ do best and thus they play to their strengths. They’re not assured defensively and that may hurt them here but I’d be lying if I said I thought that they’d fail to score at least twice here!
Anderlecht have a very good squad right now and their dominance in Belgium reflects that. However, that is Belgium – they’re stepping up a level now – so it should be interesting to see what happens. They’ve got some very strong attacking players with bags of experience and thus I think they’ll cause a dubious AZ defence some problems here. However, their own backline is distinctly average, even by Belgium’s standards, and they concede goals frighteningly easily as a result. They won’t keep AZ out here; I’m sure of that. If they show up, though, they can score goals and upset their hosts.
Anderlecht play too high up the field to gain a positive result in this game, in my view. However, they can and should score goals so over 2.5 goals appeals to me at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Legia Warsaw vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa – both sides to score at 4/5.
Despite a couple of regrettable sales prior to this game, Legia Warsaw should be able to play well enough to trouble Sporting here. They’ve played some good football in Europe this season and they’ve tended to make it count, too. Legia only seem to be able to motivate themselves for the bigger opponents but they do it well and are hard to beat at home in Europe, just as their record indicates. Legia could spring a shock here, to be honest. Sporting have controversially sacked Domingos and appointed Sa Pinto as their new boss with rumours abroad of some underhand work to make it happen. This won’t do Sporting any good at all, especially as they’ve been far from impressive lately. Sporting have shipped goals far too easily and I expect that to continue here. However, we can’t overlook their attacking power and that should make a difference in this game. I’d hate to enter the 1×2 market but taking both sides to score at 4/5 is very appealing here.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Adelaide United.
Recommended bets:
I don’t like any multiples today, sorry guys!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Champions League:
Adelaide United vs Persipura Jayapura (8) over 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Libertad Asuncion (7) 1-0
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Penarol (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
UEFA Europa League:
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (5) 2-2
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Manchester United (6) 1-2
Salzburg vs Metalist Kharkiv (6) 0-1
AZ Alkmaar vs Anderlecht (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Lazio vs Atletico Madrid (5) 0-0, at least one red card in this game
Viktoria Plzen vs Schalke 04 (6) 1-1
Legia Warsaw vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (4) 2-1
Porto vs Manchester City (5) 2-2
Stoke City vs Valencia CF (5) 1-0
Steaua Bucharest vs Twente Enschede (6) 1-1
Wisla Krakow vs Standard de Liege (5) 0-0
Udinese vs PAOK Salonika (4) 0-0, at least one red card in this game
Trabzonspor vs PSV Eindhoven (6) 0-1
Hannover 96 vs Club Brugge (6) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Balestier Khalsa vs Tampines Rovers (7) 1-2
Home United vs Gombak United (7) 2-0
Swiss Super League:
Young Boys Bern vs Basel (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Enjoy your free betting tips!