Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid
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Today’s secondary featured game is the encounter at San Mames between Athletic Club de Bilbao and Atletico Madrid. Incidentally, if I see anyone writing “Athletico Bilbao” or “Athletic Madrid” at any point today I might just ban them – it’s one of the most annoying typos I’ve ever encountered in my life! Cue the inevitable people posting it…
You all know that I love Bilbao – they’re my second team. However, I’m still not convinced with Bielsa’s tactics. I like how Bilbao are starting to attack from every angle as it makes them entertaining to watch. When they take their chances better, they’ll be a much greater threat than they are now. However, it cannot be denied that they’re a liability at the back because Javi Martinez is being played in central defence, where he cannot play, and Oscar de Marcos is deployed as a left-back, where he cannot play! Look, I understand Bielsa doing it so that Bilbao build from the back and keep possession better and the utilisation of de Marcos allows Bilbao to play a wider game and use Llorente’s towering height moreso from crosses. However, from a defensive perspective, it’s just not good news at all. Iraola has looked out of sorts because he doesn’t know whether he’s coming or going at right-back and Amorebieta is a loose cannon; good defender, but always likely to get sent off. Bilbao look much better with San Jose alongside him but that doesn’t seem likely, having seen how Bielsa has been setting them up. Muniain, Herrera, Susaeta, Llorente – they all make the home win appealing at 7/5, of course. However, from a defensive perspective, there’s just no point taking Bilbao to win here.
Indeed, there’s a case for going against them, hence my tip today. Atletico Madrid and Manzano aren’t a match that I particularly like but hey, whatever works. Atletico Madrid have gone from a two-man team (Aguero and Forlan) and have become a more team-orientated team, if that makes sense. Their morale is improving, as is their cohesion, and the team is working harder as a result. They do have one star, of course – Falcao. For me, he’s one of the most naturally gifted finishers in then world – his movement and finesse is just superb and that’s what I’m counting on seeing today. Atletico Madrid perhaps don’t give him enough support up front because if they did then he’d have scored more than he already this season. However, the Colombian hitman will score, given chance, and chances are something he should not be short of tonight with Bilbao’s defence as suspect as ever. Amorebieta is strong and brave but he’s not that quick and Martinez is similar but not as a strong and nowhere near as good positionally as Amorebieta. For me, Falcao can run riot here with his pace and movement and I’ll be surprised to see the night end without him scoring.
The 1×2 market is a no-go for me today, just as it always is with Bilbao being led by Bielsa. However, taking Falcao to score at any point during the game at 11/10 looks a good shout to me tonight.
Verdict: Falcao to score anytime at 11/10.
Thursday’s Picks
Accumulator fodder:
BATE Borisov, Zenit St.Petersburg.
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today, sorry guys!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
BATE Borisov vs Vitebsk (8) 2-0
Italian Serie A:
Palermo vs Lecce (7) 2-0
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Aalesund FK vs Stabaek (5) 1-2
Russian Premier League:
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod (8) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Tanjong Pagar (7) 1-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Espanyol vs Real Betis Balompie (7) 1-0
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid (6) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Cartagena vs Deportivo La Coruna (5)
Swiss Super League:
Luzern vs Lausanne Sports (6) 2-1
Neuchatel Xamax vs Young Boys Bern (5) 1-0
Turkish Super Lig:
Genclerbirligi vs Kayserispor (6) 1-1
Sivasspor vs Mersin Idmanyurdu (7) 2-1
Besiktas JK vs Fenerbahce (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Manisaspor vs Ankaragucu (5) 0-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!