Liepajas Metalurgs vs La Fiorita
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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA Europa League game in Latvia between Liepajas Metalurgs and La Fiorita of San Marino.
Liepajas Metalurgs are obviously the better side here but they’re what, 1/10 to win this game? That’s ridiculous. They’re barely worth that in the Virsliga despite being a top four side! This isn’t the Liepajas Metalurgs side of old, after all. They used to be a rather good attacking side that scored goals freely but they’ve become a much more defence-orientated side nowadays. I don’t know if it’s the influence of Kalasnikovs or whether it’s the fact that Liepajas now realise that rivals like Skonto Riga or FK Ventspils would tear them apart in an open game but either way, Liepajas are not a goalscoring side nowadays. They’re efficient as hell and they’re a nightmare to get a lead off but this is not a prolific side. They’re not scored more than two goals in a Virsliga home game this season and only won 0-2 in San Marino in the first leg of this tie in a game that was much closer than the pre-match odds suggested it would be. Indeed, twelve out of their fifteen Virsliga games this season have gone under 2.5 goals and there’s really not 1/10’s worth of difference between Latvian and San Marinese sides. 1/2, perhaps, but 1/10? In a game that they don’t even need to win? It just doesn’t make sense. In addition to the above, the pre-season departures of Lithuanian midfielder trio Valskis, Kavaliauskas, and Cinikas have rendered Liepajas very much short of creativity as it is so if they do decide to unnecessarily commit masses of men into breaking down a stubborn La Fiorita defence then it should still take them time to actually break through.
San Marinese sides tend to grow tired sooner than most sides for obvious reasons so it’s fair to expect goals toward the end of this game. I can’t see for the life of me why Liepajas would attack freely here as that’s not their style and they don’t need to. Imagine Liepajas were 2-0 up in a game; would they push for more? Not in the current campaign, no, and yet that’s the situation that they find themselves in. They’ve arguably got a more important game at Jelgava at weekend as they seek to keep pace with FK Ventspils so I expect them to play their usual cautious game here and edge it 1-0 or 2-0. For me, I think giving La Fiorita a +2.5 handicap at 5/6 is well worth a cheeky bet today.
Verdict: La Fiorita to win with +2.5 handicap at 5/6. Why not bet on this game now at William Hill?
Thursday’s Picks
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Europa League Qualifiers:
Zhetysu vs Lech Poznan (5) 1-0
Ordabasy vs Jagodina (6) 2-1
Metalurg Rustavi vs Teuta Durres (7) 2-0
Shirak vs Rudar Pljevlja (5) 1-0
Aktobe Lento vs Torpedo Kutaisi (7) 2-1
Metalurg Skopje vs Birkirkara (4) 2-2
Gandzasar vs EB/Streymur (7) 2-1
Celik vs Borac Banja Luka (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Inter Baku vs Trans Narva (9) -1.5 handicap
Siauliai vs Levadia Tallinn (5) 1-0
Gomel vs Vikingur Gotu (8) 2-0
Jeunesse D’Esch vs Olimpija Ljubljana (4) 2-2
Liepajas Metalurgs vs La Fiorita (7) 1-0
Zimbru Chisinau vs Bangor City (7) 2-0
Rosenborg BK vs Crusaders (8) 2-0
Kalmar FF vs Cliftonville (6) 1-0
Stabaek vs JJK Jyvaskyla (5) 2-1
UE Santa Coloma vs Twente Enschede (8) 0-2
Senica vs MTK Budapest (6) 2-1
Llanelli vs KuPS Kuopio (5) 1-1
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Cefn Druids (6) 1-0
NSI Runavik vs Differdange 03 (6) 0-0
Eschen/Mauren vs FH Hafnarfjordur (5) 1-1
Hibernians vs FK Sarajevo (5) 1-2
Mura 05 vs FK Baku (6) 1-1
Osijek vs FC Santa Coloma (7) 1-0
Celje vs Dacia Chisinau (4) 1-1
Zeta Golubovci vs Pyunik Yerevan (5) 1-1
Budapest Honved vs Flamurtari Vlore (6) 2-1
Thor Akureyi vs Bohemians (6) 1-0
Libertas vs Renova Dzepciste (5) 0-1
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (6) 1-0
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik (7) 1-2
Singaporean S-League:
Home United vs Armed Forces (7) 2-1
Gombak United vs Balestier Khalsa (6) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!