TP Mazembe vs Internacional
FreeToday’s featured game is the FIFA World Club Cup game in the United Arab Emirates between Congolese outfit TP Mazembe and Brazilian giants Internacional. TP Mazembe are the only one of these two sides to have already featured in the competition this year as they somehow overcame Pachuca of Mexico 1-0 in their previous game so that gives them a slight advantage here at least.
However, in all honesty, that’s the only advantage that I can give to TP Mazembe. The Congolese side lined up exactly as I thought they would last match by being physical, tenacious, and pacey. They’re a side a little bereft of talent but definitely aren’t short on spirit and that proved sufficient to overcome Pachuca last match.
Quite a number of people were impressed by Mazembe last match but to be honest, having watched the full game, I wasn’t impressed myself. As I mentioned above – their lack of tactics at time is absolutely terrifying and had Pachuca found their scoring boots then I genuinely believe that game could have ended 1-3. Credit must go to Mazembe, of course – they never gave up and that kind of tenacity deserves the reward that they received by qualifying for the latter stages of this competition. However, let’s not go crazy here – they overcame Pachuca because Pachuca rattled the woodwork twice and saw Arizala miss a gluttony of chances, not because Mazembe were playing particularly well. At times, Mazembe had no concept of a central midfield whatsoever with Pachuca able to drive a bus through the middle of the park, let alone pick out a pass! Again – poor play in the final third left Pachuca without a much-needed goal and it’s cost them. You can see how much Mazembe struggled in the second-half when they resorted to chopping down Pachuca players, a tactic which eventually saw Zambian defender Sunzu dismissed and he’ll miss this game as a result, which is a hefty blow for Mazembe’s already suspect defence. Mazembe’s defence was pretty poor against Pachuca as it is but without Sunzu at the back, I don’t see how they’ll cope. I was suitably impressed with Bedi’s driving runs down the right for Mazembe last match and he took his goal well although again, Calero really should have kept it out, but Bedi was one of the few players that genuinely played well and Internacional will have to watch him. I didn’t see anything else to concern me about Mazembe for today’s game, however, so I don’t see them contributing to this tournament after this game, to be blunt.
Ironically, my biggest crib with Internacional has always been that they don’t score enough goals, which is understandable as the last striker that they had to make me not think that was the irreplaceable Alexandre Pato. However, they’re facing a side that is simply inferior to them today so if they can’t score in this game then I absolutely give up! Rafael Sobis might not be the player he was once with Real Betis Balompie but his pace is a useful asset and he looked good towards the end of the Serie A campaign. Argentinian twosome D’Alessandro and Guinazu, along with Brazilian Andrezinho, are virtually unplayable in midfield at times with consistently good trickery and creativity, which naturally makes them a vital part of the team. Alecsandro was in dynamite form last year in Serie A for Internacional, finishing top goalscorer of the club by a long way at the end of the campaign. They’ve got the aerial prowess of Danilo Silva and Gonzalo Sorondo at the back and although I’m not the greatest fan of their goalkeeper Lauro, I still think that they’re head-and-shoulders above TP Mazembe today in every way. Internacional actually won the 2006 FIFA World Club Cup against Barcelona so they know how to deal with clubs from other cultures, overcoming Al-Ahly of Egypt along the way.
There’s something very interesting about today’s game that I imagine most people won’t have picked up on, however. The last manager to guide Internacional to continental success was Abel Braga (before Celso Roth, of course!). Abel Braga nowadays manages Al-Jazira in the United Arab Emirates, who play their home games at the Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium. Well, Braga is obviouly still a fan of Internacional and has links there too, hence him being able to lure Rafael Sobis there initially with him. Ironically, today’s game between TP Mazembe and Internacional is being played at the Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium so it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if Braga has given Internacional a lot of insight about this pitch and stadium, as will have current Internacional striker Rafael Sobis, who played here for some time. Therefore, I do think Internacional will have a bit of extra guidance here from an experienced “local”, which is comforting and useful.
I think there’s been a rather excessive reaction to TP Mazembe beating Pachuca in the last game in order for us to be able to back Internacional to win this game by two goals or more at evens. Seriously, this Internacional is a very good passing side and although my biggest complaint about them is that they don’t score enough goals, they really should be able to rectify that today against an inferior Mazembe side that cannot defend, especially as I expect the Brazilian side to monopolise possession here. Pachuca relied excessively on Manso last match for creativity but Internacional have numerous options available to them. With the above in mind, I’d be surprised to see anything but a comfortable win for the Brazilian side so my call is them to win by two goals or more at evens.
Verdict: Internacional to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at evens – why not bet on this game now at Bwin?
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Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Evian Thonon Gaillard vs Stade Lavallois – Stade Lavallois not to score at 4/5.
You know, I was really keen to back Evian Thonon Gaillard to win this game for the first time in ages until I saw the odds of 7/10 and thought “What the fuck?” – no newly-promoted side is worth that against an experienced opponent that specialises in not losing!
However, the call of Laval not scoring against Evian here at 4/5 really appeals to me. Laval are a good enough side throughout to be in the top five of the division whereas Evian are not. The reason Laval are not up there is because they just don’t have the necessary firepower. That said, Evian are one of the few sides in European football that boast an altitude advantage, hence their strong home record without having particularly good players, so Laval should struggle here. Evian have only lost once in eight Ligue 2 home games this season despite hosting Sedan-Ardennes, Le Havre, Boulogne, and Angers SCO to name a few. They’ve kept four clean sheets in eight home games and possess one of the best defensive records in the division at home for obvious reasons. Their last home game resulted in a 2-0 win against Grenoble Foot so they do bring some momentum into this game too.
Laval are a good enough side to actually win here but without the necessary firepower, I just don’t see it happening. Shockingly, Laval haven’t scored in nine out of their seventeen Ligue 2 games this season, which is over half of their games. They’re the joint-lowest scoring side in Ligue 2 along with Metz, Vannes OC, and Grenoble Foot, two of which are in the relegation zone. The comfort ends there for Laval, however – nobody else in Ligue 2 has scored as few away goals as Laval have with a paltry two goals scored in eight away games, which is an average of a goal scored every four away games. Amazingly, they’ve not lost all of their games with that record – they’ve managed three draws so they’re at least fairly competent defensively, sufficiently so for me to not be interested in the home win today at such short odds. However, I’m looking to exploit the impotent side of Laval here rather than the poor odds on the home win and we may just have struck gold here. Laval have fielded six strikers in Ligue 2 this season – Gimbert, Genest, Khiter, Crehin, Jacuzzi, and Makiese – and between them they’ve amassed one goal over seventeen games. Anyone seeing a problem here? They’re just not scoring goals so I don’t see them causing problems for Evian here.
Again, Evian’s own impotence in front of goal rears its ugly head occasionally so the odds of 7/10 on the home win just don’t interest me – I’d want at least evens to take a stab on the home win here. However, backing Laval not to score a goal here at 4/5 really appeals to me. Laval haven’t scored for six consecutive away games and although they’re actually a decent side, I don’t think their goalscoring issues will be resolved at pretty high altitude tonight. Therefore, my call is for Laval not to score at 4/5.
Verdict: Stade Lavallois not to score at 4/5.
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VVV Venlo vs Roda JC Kerkrade – away win at evens.
Although I’m not a massive advocate of Roda JC Kerkrade at the present time as they’re playing above themselves, I still fancy them to win this one today.
It’s largely due to VVV’s inability rather than Roda being better, to be honest. Only Willem II have scored less and conceded more than VVV and as Willem II are bottom of the Eredivisie table, they’re pretty much relegated already, barring a miracle. That really doesn’t bode well for VVV, who are really starting to struggle. They took advantage of a lacklustre and abject Heracles display in their last away game as the hosts were leading 2-0 but sat back. VVV were given all the time in the world and any decent side will claw it back to 2-2 over forty-five minutes if they’re not under any pressure so I won’t read a lot into VVV’s draw at Almelo. What does interest me, however, is VVV’s record of six defeats in eight Eredivisie home games whilst shipping over two goals per game and scoring just over a goal per game. It’s frankly a terrible home record and it’s the fundamental reasoning as to why they’re struggling so much – if you can’t take points at home, you’re in big trouble. They’ve lost four consecutive home games whilst leaking thirteen goals so times are really tough for VVV at the moment. Their inability to defend is causing them no end of problems and thus I think they’re going to struggle here.
I wouldn’t read masses into Roda’s form either, to be honest. They’ve won four out of eight on the road in the Eredivisie this season but that flatters them following a good start. They’re a good mid-table side that can occasionally break into the European places but I’d not often back them to do so. They’ve got two good strikers in Mads Junker and Stein Huysegems – both are experienced and clinical on their day – so Roda scoring doesn’t concern me. Cameroonian midfielder Djourm has been immense this season with his goal contribution and overall tenacity so he’ll be pivotal to any success that they do manage to achieve this season. However, Roda’s defence does concern me – Kah, de Faur, and Wielart look capable of conceding against anyone and although it’s not necessarily excessive conceding, it still makes me nervous about backing Roda. It was defensive capitulation against De Graafschap that saw Roda crash to a 3-1 defeat there. However, it’s their ability in front of goal that has earned them good wins at NAC Breda, AZ Alkmaar, and ADO Den Haag whilst also earning them draws at Feyenoord and Heerenveen. Therefore, there’s quite a lot to consider when you’re backing Roda to win a game and that’s why I don’t often back them.
However, I have to dip my beak on the away win here. Roda are too generously-priced at evens to win this game. They’re not a reliable side per se but they’re playing a terrible VVV side that really should be relegated this season. With Roda’s defence looking a bit vulnerable of late and VVV’s defence looking eternally vulnerable, you have to expect plenty of goals here. However, if Junker and Huysegems turn up today then there should be nothing other than an away win here. Over 2.5 goals is intriguing but whilst Roda are at 9/10 or longer, I think they’re a bargain here when balanced against their poor opponents.
Verdict: Roda JC Kerkrade to win at evens.
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Accumulator fodder:
Internacional, Bangor City.
Recommended bets:
Roda JC Kerkrade, Bangor City, and Internacional at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
FIFA World Club Cup:
TP Mazembe vs Internacional (8) -1.5 handicap
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Eupen vs Mechelen (5) 1-1
English League Two:
Cheltenham Town vs Southend United (6) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Evian Thonon Gaillard vs Stade Lavallois (5) under 2.5 goals
Dutch Eredivisie:
VVV Venlo vs Roda JC Kerkrade (6) 1-2
Scottish Premier League:
Motherwell vs Hearts (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Welsh Premier League:
Airbus UK vs Bangor City (8) 1-2
Llanelli vs Haverfordwest County (7) 1-0
Neath Athletic vs Aberystwyth Town (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!