TPS Turku vs HJK Helsinki
FreeToday’s featured game is the Liiga Cup game in Finland between TPS Turku and HJK Helsinki. These two sides have been title rivals for a few years now but massive changes at TPS Turku over the last two years now renders them distinctly inferior to HJK Helsinki and that should hopefully show today.
I mentioned in last season’s Veikkausliiga previews that TPS Turku were in ruin financially and that’s not changed over the break. They’ve had to part with some essential players ahead of the current Veikkausliiga season and I thoroughly expect it to show today. TPS Turku sold Manninen and Wusu to JJK Jyvaskyla, Cleaver to SJK, Jovanovic to Babelsberg, and Riku Riski to Widzew Lodz. Barring Riski, all of those players are regular starters and TPS are really struggling for depth without them. Aside from the above, TPS also miss star striker Jonatan Johansson, Roope Riski, and Jukka Lehtovaara for this game, all of which are again very important players for TPS. I have to admit that I don’t know if they’re simply missing this game or if they’ve been sold – Finnish football can be hard to keep track of – but the fact that they miss this game is enough for me. This TPS Turku side is bereft of important players for varying reasons and I genuinely cannot label this side as a title rival of HJK Helsinki this season as a result.
HJK Helsinki are the daddies in Finland, to be blunt. I’m a FC Honka Espoo man, myself, but HJK are still the best side in Finland for my money. Either way, the Finnish title is usually decided between these two clubs and I expect that again this season although don’t be surprised to see JJK Jyvaskyla to do well after some very impressive signings. Anyway, HJK Helsinki have a good record at TPS Turku, winning three out of their last four visits to Turku, including a visit in the Liiga Cup last season so they know how to win here. HJK have only parted with striker Makela to Sydney FC in the transfer window – well, that’s the only transfer of any significance. However, HJK have bought Mannstrom from Jaro Pietarsaari, Hakanpaa from rivals FC Honka Espoo, and Yobe from AC Oulu, all of which were good performers in the Veikkausliiga last season and should strengthen HJK’s midfield considerably, especially after the departure of Medo part way through last season. Yobe in particular brings a great energy to the side and along with the skills of Bah, HJK now have one of the strongest midfields in Finland, in my view. Therefore, they have to be taken very seriously indeed here.
Atypically, you’d have to be cautious with betting on the Liiga Cup as it’s a pre-season tournament; it held little value. It’s an official tournament organised by the FFA; don’t get me wrong here. There just usually wasn’t any point to winning it. This season, however, the winner gains an automatic pass for the first few rounds of the Suomen Cup and that could be a big boost for a club like HJK who can focus on the league before their campaign is inevitably interrupted by the introduction of European competition in June/July/August. Therefore, odds of 10/11 on the away win with all of the above in mind look a gift to me today.
Verdict: HJK Helsinki to win at 10/11.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Japan vs South Korea – Japan to win at 8/5.
Japan vs South Korea is always a fiery game for obvious reasons and as the semi-final of the Asian Cup, this game should be no different. Therefore, caution must be used when betting on this game as there are a lot of tempremental and feisty players in both sides.
However, I’ll be siding with Japan for this one today. Why? Well, they’ve had four days to prepare for this game whereas South Korea have only had three, for starters. Japan managed to overcome hosts Qatar with just ten men, which shows their determination, especially considering the support that Qatar had for that game. Japan have been winning games through scoring a lot of goals, simply. Their defending is catastrophic at times and it does concern me but I just think that they’ll score more goals than South Korea here. Japan have taken a better side to this tournament than South Korea have, for whatever reason. The likes of Kagawa and Honda in midfield tend to ensure that Japan create and score a lot of goals and they’ll no doubt be integral in this game today. I mentioned pre-tournament that South Korea had brought a good midfield to this Asian Cup but little else and that’s made my decision for me today, really. South Korea haven’t impressed me at all in front of goal and that’s no surprise really, given that their strikers don’t have more than ten caps between them because they’re so young. South Korea view this tournament as a platform for their youngsters to develop and those youngsters played 120 minutes just three days ago when they overcame Iran. Therefore, they’re going to be tired today whereas Japan have had longer to prepare for this game and have more experienced players. South Korea left a lot of experienced players out of their squad for this tournament with captain Park expected to lead from the front, which he has and always will do. However, I mentioned pre-tournament that against big sides, South Korea really should struggle due to their lack of experience and this is the game where I expect it to show today.
Japan are much fresher for this game than South Korea have and they have brought a better side so I have to give them a chance here. 8/5 is a very good price with the above in mind and although Japan will probably concede due to bad defending in this game, I do think that they’re going to outscore South Korea today.
Team news – Japan miss Yoshida for this game.
Verdict: Japan to win at 8/5.
Uzbekistan vs Australia – over 2.5 goals at 27/20.
This bet operates in a similar manner to the above Asian Cup preview on the basis that the better side – in this case Australia – has played a game three days ago that went to extra-time so they’re much more tired than Uzbekistan, who played four days ago and won in ordinary time. I’ve mentioned before that Uzbekistan have a good attack but poor defence and that should really show today. Australia are the side that I think will win the tournament ultimately as they’ve got the best “all round” squad, as I call it – they’ve got a lot of depth, experience and ability in every area, something that no other remaining side can boast. However, they can’t possibly be at their best after their gruelling win against Iraq, which should have been a lot easier for them. Uzebekistan’s attack is very good and I think that they can score against Australia today. Too many people write this country off because they don’t know a lot about them and although I’ve written them off winning the tournament, I think it’s foolhardy to underestimate them. They’ll give Australia a good game but the Aussies are obviously the better side. For me, this game looks to be an over 2.5 goals game because the Uzbeks are particularly vulnerable in defence and the Aussies are tired. The Asian Cup is not always a great place to bet so do bet with caution, especially given my bad luck of late, but 27/20 on there being over 2.5 goals in this game looks a generous price to me.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 27/20.
Colombia U20 vs Bolivia U20 – Colombia U20 to win at 5/6.
This price looks pretty stupid to me, to be honest. This tournament has thrown up a couple of surprises, admittedly, but Colombia are a lot better than Bolivia. It looks like a bit of a crazy market reaction to Bolivia’s draw with Brazil, which was completely unjust, really. Bolivia were totally outplayed and outfought by Brazil but scored as a Brazilian centre-back fell over with the ball in his own half, Rios seized the ball, ran through one-on-one, and scored. That was virtually the only clear-cut chance Bolivia created whereas Brazil hit the woodwork numerous times. Colombia don’t boast their best squad in recent years at the present time but they should still have too much for Bolivia. Bolivia must be exhausted after that game just a few days ago because they had to work incredibly hard just to keep the score down so they should be tired here. With the quality advantage and freshness advantage being on Colombia’s side, the odds shouldn’t be as long as 5/6 here – they should be 4/7 in my eyes so I think there’s value on Colombia tonight.
Verdict Colombia U20 to win at 5/6.
Independiente vs Deportivo Quito – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Neither of these two sides have played a competitive game for a while so approach with caution here.
However, this is the Copa Libertadores, after all, so both sides will be dedicated here. I love betting in this competition – there’s always value if you look hard enough and I think I’ve unearthed some tonight.
Independiente are priced far too short to win this game, to begin with, so I wouldn’t touch that selection with a barge pole. The bookies have simply placed them as short as they have because they’re from Argentina, basically. However, I do think Independiente should win the game ultimately – I just don’t think there’s value in it.
So what do I reckon is value here? Well, I like over 2.5 goals for this one. Three out of Independiente’s five home games in the Copa Sudamericana last season went over 2.5 goals as they were leaky at the back and surprisingly incisive in attack. Little has changed over the break for them so the same is very much possible here. However, their defending should be considerably worse in this game than normal as starlet Galeano is away in Peru with the Argentina U20’s and he was a rock for them last season; they’ll really miss him tonight. The bonus for Independiente is that Deportivo Quito don’t travel well due to the altitude difference but nonetheless, Deportivo are an experienced side when playing continental football so they can score here. Independiente overcame Deportivo’s bitter rivals Liga de Quito last season in the Copa Sudamericana, winning 2-1 at home, which is a scoreline that would suit me tonight. Deportivo Quito only miss Espinoza to my knowledge as he’s with the Ecuadorian U20 team but they find playing football outside of Ecuador generally very hard so they should struggle here. As I mentioned earlier, however – they’re experienced enough to poach a goal off a defensively-poor Independiente side and to be honest, that’s what they’ll play for here.
With the above in mind, I think over 2.5 goals at evens is a good call, especially with both sides being a little rusty at the moment so mistakes will be made and both sides have everything to gain and nothing to lose in South America’s most prestigious tournament.
Team news – Independiente miss Galeano whereas Deportivo Quito miss Espinoza.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Blackpool vs Manchester United – Blackpool to win with a +1.5 goal handicap at 4/5.
I don’t enjoy making tips like this as a Manchester United fan but there does appear to be value here. Manchester United simply never play well when playing away from home against a newly-promoted side. I don’t know if it’s because the hosts play as if it’s their cup final for obvious reasons or whether United just lack concentration but I’ve watched United for years now; it’s a fairly consistent trait of theirs. Check the below results and you’ll see what I mean:
Promoted in 2008/2009 – Birmingham City, Burnley, Wolverhampton Wanderers
Results:
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Manchester United 0-1
Burnley vs Manchester United 1-0
Birmingham City vs Manchester United 1-1
Promoted in 2007/2008 – West Bromwich Albion, Stoke City, and Hull City
Results:
Hull City vs Manchester United – 0-1
Stoke City vs Manchester United – 0-1
WBA vs Manchester United – 0-5
As you can clearly see, the only game United dominated away from home during that time was against West Bromwich Albion. I watched all of those games I can assure you that United didn’t play well in any of them barring the WBA game. United’s only game against a newly-promoted side this season was their 1-2 win at WBA, which again, United didn’t play well in. United were magnificent at weekend against Birmingham, it’s true, but United are much more cautious away from home this season, hence their low goalscoring ratio.
Blackpool are a side that plays with great gusto under Holloway and even the news that star midfielder Charlie Adam wants to leave the club shouldn’t disrupt them too much because of their unity and belief. This is still a cup final for Blackpool and they’re going to play their hearts out. United may just be a tad complacent here after such a dominant win and although I do think that United will win the game, I don’t envision it being by a large margin.
Now for the statistical approach! Blackpool have scored and conceded in every home game this season in the Premier League and if you gave them +1.5 goals head start in each of those games then they’d have won all of them. However, if you’d given the home side a +1.5 goal head start against Manchester United for all their away games in the Premier League this season then the home side would win every game. With that in mind, I think that giving Blackpool a +1.5 goal head start at 4/5 here has to be given some serious thought as those odds seem far too generous to me.
I’d approach this one with caution for obvious reasons but there does look to be value here. I’m hardly going to be crying if United win this one 0-12 ’cause I support them but from a betting perspective, the value is with Blackpool tonight.
Team news – Blackpool miss Basham, Carney, Crainey, Clarke, Gilks, and Martin whereas Manchester United miss Hargreaves, Park, and Valencia whilst having doubts over Carrick and Ferdinand.
Verdict: Blackpool to win with a +1.5 goal handicap at 4/5.
Recommended bets:
There’s no accumulator fodder today so I find it hard to make any combinations that appeal to me – sorry guys!
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Cup:
Japan vs South Korea (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Uzbekistan vs Australia (6) over 2.5 goals
Copa Sudamericana U20:
Colombia vs Bolivia (7) 2-0
Ecuador vs Brazil (8) 1-2
Copa Libertadores:
Independiente vs Deportivo Quito (6) over 2.5 goals
English Premier League:
Blackpool vs Manchester United (6) over 2.5 goals
Wigan Athletic vs Aston Villa (5) 1-1
English Championship:
Portsmouth vs Burnley (6)
Nottingham Forest vs Bristol City (7)
Doncaster Rovers vs Barnsley (6) over 2.5 goals
English League One:
Hartlepool United vs Notts County (3)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Colchester United (6)
Walsall vs Oldham Athletic (5) both sides to score
Swindon Town vs Tranmere Rovers (5) over 2.5 goals
Leyton Orient vs Milton Keynes Dons (6) over 2.5 goals
Sheffield Wednesday vs Yeovil Town (6)
English League Two:
Hereford United vs Morecambe (6)
Southend United vs Macclesfield Town (5)
Cheltenham Town vs Lincoln City (7)
Port Vale vs Barnet (5)
Crewe Alexandra vs Bradford City (7) over 2.5 goals
Gillingham vs Chesterfield (6) both sides to score
Oxford United vs Shrewsbury Town (5) draw no bet
Stevenage vs Rotherham United (5)
Finnish Liiga Cup:
TPS Turku vs HJK Helsinki (7) over 2.5 goals
Italian Serie B:
Livorno vs Padova (7)
Welsh Premier League:
Haverfordwest County vs Port Talbot Town (5) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
Bala Town vs Carmarthen Town (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!