TPV Tampere vs Hameenlinna
FreeToday’s featured game is the Ykkonen game between TPV Tampere and Hameenlinna. Both sides are battling against the dreaded drop into the labyrinth more commonly known as the Kakkonen and both are finally beginning to battle successfully as they realise just how close the jaws of the Kakkonen actually are.
It’s just over the half-way mark of the Ykkonen season and TPV Tampere find themselves second from bottom in the table but are a mere two points from safety so they’re still in control of their own fate. I’ve been immensely impressed with TPV Tampere in recent times because they’ve been compact, hard to beat, and have taken points from games that they probably shouldn’t have because of their tenacity and well-organised side. I think it was approximately seven games ago when TPV’s season took a turn for the better, right after league leaders RoPS Rovaniemi destroyed them 8-0. They then travelled to a potent PoPa Pori and fought hard, eventually losing 2-1, unfortunately. However, TPV took momentum from their display and have since then gone six games with just one defeat, winning three times and drawing twice along the way. Their first win of that run was ironically at their opponents today, Hameenlinna, in a 1-0 victory. It’s helped TPV’s cause immensely that their five games since then were at home but they’ve developed some excellent momentum since then as a result. The only side to win in Tampere against TPV in their last six games was league leaders RoPS Rovaniemi (for the second time – TPV were well and truly sick of playing them by this point!) but everyone else they’ve hosted have been given a tremendous game. TPV have held a potent PoPa Pori side to a 3-3 draw despite initially trailing in the game and they’ve smashed MP Mikkeli 4-0 along the way. They’ve notched up six goals in their past two games and although they’re where they are in the Ykkonen because their defence isn’t the most reliable, they’re starting to find ways around that by outscoring their opponents, something they’ve not really done in the division this season. However, with momentum and potency favouring the hosts today and the Kemmo-Hilska partnership in attack starting to yield goals, you have to fancy TPV Tampere to give a good account of themselves today.
Visitors Hameenlinna are a side that I do have a lot of respect for because of their strong defence but they’ve had a campaign to forget with goals very hard to come by indeed. Hameenlinna won their last match 2-0 against KooTeePee Kotka so they do bring some momentum into this game, which is a little alarming as an in-form Hameenlinna might not threaten the opposing goal much but they defend so well sometimes that even the likes of PoPa Pori and PK-35 Helsinki would struggle to break them down. However, back-to-back defeats on the road comforts me with my selection, particularly as one of them was against a poor HJK II side. The only time Hameenlinna take points on the road is if their defence turn up because they can occasionally score a goal and they’ll then sit on it and they’re generally pretty damn good at it. However, they’re facing a TPV Tampere side that are scoring goals for fun at the moment so Hameenlinna are going to have to play very well here to take anything from the game. Hameenlinna haven’t won in Tampere since back in 2001, although to be fair to them, the two sides have only locked horns for the past three years with the six in between having been spent in seperate divisions. Hameenlinna have lost their last three visits here, however, and even lost at home to TPV a few weeks ago so they’re starting to become a bit of a bogey side for the visitors today. Either way – it’s going to take a very good Hameenlinna display to take something from this game and I just don’t think they’re capable of producing that display currently.
I’d always approach this type of relegation battle with caution but you have to admit that everything is favouring TPV Tampere at the moment. I don’t know how long their adrenaline will keep them going for because they’re still not a good side but it should be enough to see them do well today. Hameenlinna have a chance of taking a draw if their luck is in but the odds are good enough on the home win for me to be interested today. Incidentally, in all three of TPV’s wins in Tampere over the past few years against Hameenlinna, TPV have beaten the -1.5 goal handicap every time despite there not being much between the two sides and the odds of it occurring this time are approximately 4/1 – just food for thought if you feel adventurous!
Verdict: TPV Tampere to win at 13/10.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
There’s only one other game which interests me today, which is as follows:
Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia – Levski Sofia to lead at half-time and win the game at 6/5.
Levski Sofia have a terrible head-to-head record against their local rivals Lokomotiv Sofia and I’ve never quite worked out why that is. The powers in Bulgaria have long been Levski Sofia, CSKA Sofia, and Litex Lovech. However, Lokomotiv has always threatened to break into that trio and they tend to show why against Levski although I doubt they will today. The reason I’ve made this selection today is primarily based upon strikers. I can point out that Levski bring tremendous momentum into this game following their big derby win at CSKA Sofia and their annihlation of Swedes Kalmar mid-week in Europe and I’d be correct but Lokomotiv also won their opening game at a tricky Montana side so both sides bring momentum to this game.
However, as I touched upon earlier, my bet today is based around strikers. Basically, Lokomotiv Sofia formulate their attacks around target man Genkov. He didn’t play too much last year because of the excellent link-up between Asamoah and Kamburov. However, Kamburov signed for Dalian Shide in China in summer so Lokomotiv must again turn to local hero Genkov because also Asamoah is still in their ranks, he needs a striker to play off and Genkov is that man. However, Genkov misses this big game through injury, which is a sore blow for Lokomotiv Sofia. I think their whole gameplan will be hindered as a result and I don’t rate their chances of scoring as a result.
So – will Levski break through Lokomotiv’s still resolve? That’s the big question here. My answer to that would be “yes”. Levski have more competitive match practice than Lokomotiv at the moment following their successful European campaign and they also have their morale-boosting win against CSKA Sofia, which is like winning the Champions League to some Levski ultras! However, the signature of striker Dembele is a promising one for Levski because he’s slotted into the side seamlessly and now the players operate around him in very successful fashion, which makes Levski look very good indeed. Now the attention of defenders goes to him instead of Levski’s usual half-assed attackers and Dembele is worthy of their attention as he’s a potent threaat so this opens up spaces for Levski’s playmaking duo Tasevski and Joaozinho to operate in. That’s the last thing you want to do against what is currently the best side in Bulgaria and for me, that will give Levski the win today, particularly with their rivals CSKA Sofia and Litex Lovech both in dire straits currently – it can only encourage Levski.
The odds on the outright win don’t interest me; 4/9 is no price for a derby game. However, taking Levski to win the first-half and hold on to win the game at 6/5 interests me because the odds are good enough to take a chance on and I don’t think Lokomotiv will score in this game, which in practice means that Levski will score in the first-half at 6/5. Football doesn’t always work as logically, of course, but the above is how I interpret this game which is why I think this bet is a good value bet today.
Verdict: Levski Sofia to lead at half-time and win the game at 6/5.
For my full thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Bulgarian A PFG:
Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia (7) 2-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Hradec Kralove vs Viktoria Plzen (6) 1-1
Teplice vs Ceske Budejovice (4) 0-0
English League Cup:
Stevenage vs Portsmouth (5) both sides to score
Finnish Ykkonen:
TPV Tampere vs Hameenlinna (6)
French Ligue 2:
Nantes vs Le Mans (7)
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Odd Grenland Skien vs Lillestrom (6) 2-1
Romanian Liga:
Sportul Studentesc vs Gloria Bistrita (7) 0-0
Swedish Superettan:
GIF Sundsvall vs Vasby United (8) over 2.5 goals
IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby (4)
Swiss Challenge League:
Biel-Bienne vs Winterthur (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!