Luxembourg vs Switzerland
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Today’s secondary featured game is the International Friendly between Luxembourg and Switzerland. These two sides have a bit of history with Luxembourg having previously claimed a coupon-busting 1-2 win at Switzerland and I don’t think the Swiss have ever forgotten it, too. With that in mind, I do think that the Swiss will take it seriously today.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – Luxembourg are improving. I appreciate that they couldn’t have gotten much worse but they’re not the walkovers they once were. However, their enemy remains goalscoring as it’s something that they’re simply not good at yet. They’ve got some promising youngsters in Gerson and Laterza in midfield and a couple of old hands in the team so they’re worth taking seriously in most of their games. They’re generally a compact unit that is hard to penetrate but let’s face facts – this side has scored in two out of their last nine home games. Their performances may be improving but their goalscoring tally is not good and I think they’ll struggle to break through a strong Swiss side today.
Switzerland have improved over the past two/three years and it’s down to two factors; their promising youngsters and the brilliance of Ottmar Hitzfeld. Gavranovic, Ben Khalifa, Xhaka, Emeghara, Sommer, Mehmedi, Shaqiri, Frei, Rodriguez etc. are just some of the promising players to break into the national team over the past year or so. Some of those aren’t in the squad for today, of course, but the hottest prospect in Swiss football right now is – Shaqiri. This playmaker can unlock defences with ease despite his tender years and it’s this kind of player that the Swiss have missed for a long time. They’ve also managed to recruit some forwards in Emeghara and Derdiyok, forwards that can actually score goals, which again is something that the Swiss are not used to having at their disposal – not since the 90’s, at least! My one crib with Hitzfeld’s strong team is that they’re perhaps lacking a bit of experience. I mean, only Inler and Lichtsteiner have topped forty caps in this squad so you can see my point. However, I like how this squad has gelled and how dangerous they can be in front of goals. Ok, the Dutch were wasteful in the game between Netherlands and Switzlerland last week but the Swiss were resilient and kept a clean sheet as a result. Unsurprisingly, this Swiss side knows how to defend under old hand Hitzfeld and thus I can see them keeping a clean sheet here.
The only question remaining is to whether the Swiss will score or not here. It shouldn’t be so easy for them with so many youngsters in their squad but I expect them to do so and win the game 0-1 or 0-2 ultimately. They’re good enough to control this game and as long as Shaqiri sees plenty of the ball then they should ultimately score and ride it out to win the game. For me, taking the Swiss to win to nil at 4/5 is a good shout today.
Verdict: Switzerland to win to nil at 4/5.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Colombia vs Argentina – away win at 11/10.
You know something? I really don’t like backing Argentina at a senior level any longer. Why? They’re simply not that good nowadays. Despite boasting an arsenal of attacking power, they rarely play well as a unit and that does concern me.
However, I will be sticking my neck out to take them to win here because we find ourselves in the unusual position of Colombia being rather overrated too. A lot of people will point out that Falcao plays for Colombia and thus they must be a good side. Whereas I am one of the bigger fans of Falcao as his ability to put the ball in the net is quite outstanding, I would hasten to point out that he is a striker and thus is unable to change the game without the necessary service, which is something that Atletico Madrid fans and backers are beginning to realise. Additionally, Falcao isn’t in the squad for this game as he’s injured, which is a big blow for Colombia. Hugo Rodallega is out too, which again hurts the Colombian attack. I mean, looking at their strikers, there’s only Ramos that presents a legitimate threat, in my view, with most of his compatriots being rather unproven at this level. The other weapon that Colombia have is playmaker Rodriguez of Porto, who is a very dangerous player indeed. However, he’s taking on a very good Argentina midfield today and may well be lost in the occasion – there’s a big burden on his shoulders for a youngster. We look around him and see some decent players ala Guarin and Aguilar but mostly inexperience so I’m not too concerned. Defence is where Colombia’s strength lies with Mosquera, Perea, and Yepes being the atypical beasts that can be found in the heart of the Colombian defence. They’re not easy to score against, Colombia, especially at home, but their attack doesn’t concern me here so I’ll give Argentina the nod.
Argentina – well, what can I say that you don’t already know? I might not rate them as a team but their ability to win games thanks to the brilliance of individuals ala Messi, Higuain, Aguero, Pastore etc. is just uncanny. I’ve got quite a few question marks in my head over the calling up of players unproven at this level such as Guinazu, Fernandez, and Desabato. However, we all know how good Argentina can be in front of goal and they often only need once chance to punish a side and I can’t see them ending this game without having created chances.
Easy game? Definitely not. However, Colombia are a little weak up front tonight and Argentina boast a very dangerous attack so I think I’ll take my chances with the away win at 11/10.
Verdict: Argentina to win at 11/10.
Thailand vs Australia – home win with +1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Well, it’d be pretty pointless for me to point out that Australia are the better side here – we all know that. However, this should be a much harder game than the odds suggest and we should see a very close game, in my view. Thailand were close to causing an upset a couple of months ago when they faced Australia away in a friendly, eventually losing their 0-1 lead and succumbing to a 2-1 loss. This side is getting better and better and that is especially visible in front of their vociferous home fans. Bear in mind that Thailand have only lost three times in their last twenty-five home games and that the last time that they’d have lost with a +1 Asian Handicap would have been against Japan in 2008 should tell you that this physical and ever-improving Thailand side is not one to underestimate. Consider that Australia have important absentees in the one area of their team that is capable of upsetting their Thai hosts – midfield – with Cahill, Bresciano, and Grella all absent and I think we should see Australia struggle here. I’d be surprised to see the superior Aussies to win this one, to be honest, but if they do then I can’t see it being by more than a single goal so giving the hosts a +1 Asian Handicap at 6/5 really interests me here.
Verdict: Thailand to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Republic of Macedonia vs Albania – away win with draw no bet at 8/5.
This is the biggest gamble that I’m taking today so be careful with your stakes. However, I really like the chances of Albania nicking this one. They almost never travel well but they’re a good enough side and they do have good players. Bogdani is hardly mobile in attack but he’s good in the air and he’s got pacey Salihi alongside him to be his legs if needs be. Midfield battleaxe Cana is in the squad, as is old hand Lala and playmaker Hyka so the Albanians do have a decent midfield here too. Curri’s absence at the back does concern me a little but Dallku, Vangjeli, and Lila should be good enough to keep a solid shape at the back so the visitors are looking quite strong here, in my view. It aids my bet massively that Republic of Macedonia haven’t really settled under wily Welsh boss John Toshack and additionally they have some big absentees today with national hero Goran Pandev absent, as is fellow striker Trickovski. Given that Stojkov is already out of the squad, this leaves the goalscoring duty with Naumoski, who is good in a 4-4-2 but as the main striker in the squad it’s far from ideal. Additionally, we’ve seen two extremely important defenders in Popov and Noveski withdraw through injury which leaves Lazarevski holding things together at the back and ex-Zenit St.Petersburg midfielder Sumulikoski holding things together in midfield. There’s not much ability nor experience surrounding both of these players and with the Macedonians far from impressing right now, I do think that the Albanians can and will cause an upset here. Indeed, with so many important players absent for the hosts, the minimum I expect Albania to leave this game with is a draw, hence the selection.
Verdict: Albania to win with draw no bet at 8/5.
England vs Sweden – both sides to score at 9/10.
I think the football world gave a collective shrug at England’s win against Spain but I expect things to return to normal today. Credit must be given to England for their tenacious display against Spain, especially given their excellent defending. However, let’s not be stupid – England were overrun in that game and if it were played nine times out of ten then England would lose at least seven of those times and win no more than once, realistically.
Today, we should see the old England return because they cannot be as defensive in this game as they were against Spain. They’ll be expected to do well against Sweden and that’s when the laziness and ineffectual England comes back into play. England have a poor record against Sweden by all accounts. I recall hearing a statistic lately that England haven’t beaten Sweden in forty years although I’ve not actually done any research into that! Nonetheless, England will revert to their semi-attacking tactics and it makes their defence fall to pieces and their attack look a bit weak, especially with no Rooney to act as a go-between for the midfield and attack and thus I think England will struggle here.
Sweden play some good football when it suits them. Unfortunately, they’re a bit hit-and-miss, much like England, but they tend to show up against the bigger nations. If they play as badly in this game as they did at Denmark a few days ago then we can forget this bet winning right now but I don’t expect that from them. Sweden love to unsettle the favourites and I expect them to produce the kind of display that unsettled the Dutch in the last few months in a game which saw the Swedish win 3-2 against the odds. This side has got some good players. I mean, we all know how good Ibrahimovic is and how good Elmander can be so they’re already two players to be wary of. Additionally, the set pieces of Sebastian Larsson and the pace of Martin Olsson are potent threats as the players playing tonight will know as both ply their trade in the English Premier League. There’s a good deal of experience and ability in this Swedish team, though, and they’re absolutely good enough to cause an upset here, especially with the likes of Wilhemsson, Toivonen, and Svensson able to be called upon if required.
The 1×2 is a no-go here – England tend to be quite poor at Wembley nowadays and may feel a little cocky following their unprecedented win against Spain lately. Sweden should be primed for an upset here and with both sides set to treat this game as a proper friendly, I think there’ll be ample opportunity for both sides to make mistakes and concede goals so taking both sides to score appeals to me here.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 9/10.
Italy vs Uruguay – both sides to score at 9/10.
An overrated Italy side versus an underrated Uruguay side? I have to love the idea of both sides scoring at 9/10 here. Cavani is playing the best season of his life and he knows the Italy squad inside out for obvious reasons. Suarez is playing tremendously well this season too and given that the likes of Perez and Gonzalez ply their trade in Italy along with compatriot Cavani, we really should see Uruguay play a “clever” game here and maybe even cause a surprise. Uruguay are one of the more composed sides in South America nowadays and should be primed to give Italy a scare here. However, as much as some Italians seem to hate him, Balotelli is a really terrifying prospect for them and although he’s unquestionably a loose cannon, he is a natural goalscorer and cause Uruguay problems with his pace, movement, and strength. Italy have the playmakers; all they need is a finisher, and Balotelli can do that job.
For me, both sides scoring in this game should be a given. Football is a difficult game to predict in some friendlies but I’m hoping that this isn’t one of them. Both sides have enough firepower to score goals and win this game so taking both sides to score looks good to me here.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 9/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Kenya, Rwanda, Congo, Mozambique, Namibia, Republic of Ireland, Belarus, Denmark, Ghana, Ukraine U21, Italy U21, Sweden U21, Germany U21.
Recommended bets:
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
World Cup Qualifiers – South America:
Colombia vs Argentina (6) 0-1
Ecuador vs Peru (6) 0-0
Chile vs Paraguay (5) 1-1
Venezuela vs Bolivia (7) 2-1
World Cup Qualifiers – Africa:
Madagascar vs Equatorial Guinea (5) 1-0
Kenya vs Seychelles (8) 2-0
Tanzania vs Chad (7) 2-0
Burundi vs Lesotho (5) 2-1
Rwanda vs Eritrea (8) 2-0
Congo DR vs Swaziland (7) 2-1
Congo vs Sao Tome & Principe (9) -1.5 handicap
Togo vs Guinea-Bissau (7) 1-0
Mozambique vs Comoros (8) 2-0
Namibia vs Djibouti (9) -1.5 handicap
World Cup Qualifiers – Asia:
North Korea vs Japan (5) 0-1
Thailand vs Australia (5) 1-1
Singapore vs China (6) 1-2
Indonesia vs Iran (4) 2-2
Lebanon vs South Korea (7) 0-2
Uzbekistan vs Tajikistan (7) 2-0
Kuwait vs United Arab Emirates (5) 1-0
Jordan vs Iraq (6) 1-0
Qatar vs Bahrain (6) 2-1
Saudi Arabia vs Oman (7) 2-1
UEFA European Championship Qualifiers:
Croatia vs Turkey (7) 1-0
Montenegro vs Czech Republic (6) 1-1
Republic of Ireland vs Estonia (8) 2-0
Portugal vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (7) over 2.5 goals
International Friendlies:
Republic of Macedonia vs Albania (6) 0-1
Belarus vs Libya (8) 2-0
Slovenia vs USA (6) 1-1
Ukraine vs Austria (6) 2-1
Denmark vs Finland (8) 2-0
Luxembourg vs Switzerland (7) 0-1
Poland vs Hungary (6) 1-1
Greece vs Romania (6) 1-0
Germany vs Netherlands (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Italy vs Uruguay (6) 1-1
England vs Sweden (5) 1-1
France vs Belgium (7) 1-0
Costa Rica vs Spain (7) over 2.5 goals
Nigeria vs Zambia (5) 1-1
Algeria vs Cameroon (6) 0-0
Ghana vs Gabon (8) 2-0
Guinea vs Burkina Faso (7) 2-0
Zimbabwe vs South Africa (6) 2-1, at last one red card in this game
Niger vs Botswana (6) 0-0
Senegal vs Ivory Coast (6) 1-2
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Republic of Macedonia vs Denmark (7) 0-1
Armenia vs Wales (6) 1-1
Northern Ireland vs Serbia (5) 0-1
Bulgaria vs Austria (5) 1-1
Ukraine vs Lithuania (8) 2-0
Italy vs Hungary (8) 2-0
Cyprus vs Germany (8) over 2.5 goals
Malta vs Sweden (8) 0-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!