SL Benfica vs Zenit St.Petersburg
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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA Champions League game between SL Benfica and Zenit St.Petersburg. With the first leg having ended 3-2 in favour of the Russian side, this tie is finely poised with progression in Benfica’s hands – all they need to do is win the game in a composed fashion (e.g. not conceding two goals!) and the place in the next round is theirs.
However, I don’t see it being as straightfoward as it could be for the Portuguese giants. All is not well in the Benfica camp right now following a string of poor displays and now there’s something of a panic emerging amongst a group of players that played with tremendous swagger and composure for such a lengthy period of time. Their 1-0 loss at Vitoria Guimaraes was weak with Benfica creating very little. Their 0-0 draw at Academica de Coimbra was a joke – Academica can’t defend against anyone! Finally, their 2-3 loss at home against title rivals Porto last match was horrendous – Benfica somehow threw away a two-goal lead in front of their own fans and have probably lost the title because of it, to be honest.
I don’t know why Benfica have suddenly shrivlled and given up. I genuinely have no idea what has gone on behind the scenes as it just doesn’t make sense for Benfica to capitulate like this. They still have a lot of quality players and they’re still capable of beating almost any side at the Estadio do Luz but will they? I can only say that I am not confident in them doing so. I’ve not had it confirmed at the time of writing this but apparently playmaker Pablo Aimar and centre-back Ezequiel Garay are both out for this game. Luisao is Benfica’s best defender by a mile but Garay is a useful player and his absence makes this game harder for Benfica. Aimar’s absence is always going to be a blow – he’s their most experienced midfielder – and that lack of composure in midfield makes me feel very unsure about Benfica having enough to progress here. Still, Benfica have to attack here and attacking is very much their forté so I do expect them to at least score goals here, if nothing else.
Unfortunately, Benfica are hosting a very good Zenit side. You simply can’t write this side off, as much as Russian sides usually struggle in the hotter countries. Zenit have bags of experience and a good manager and it’s shown already in this tournament that they know how to grind out results. Hell, they came to Portugal in the group stages and managed to avoid defeat against Porto, thus dumping the Liga Sagres champions out of the Champions League.
Can Zenit spring a surprise and actually win in Portugal this time? I’d be nervous if I’d backed it, to be honest – they’ve got some pretty big absentees themselves in the form of number one goalkeeper Malafeev and attacker Danny with Italian defender Criscito a doubt for the game too. The fact that we’re likely to see erratic Belarusian goalkeeper Yury Zhevnov replace Malafeev here will not do Zenit any favours. Their defence is generally solid and reliable but behind every solid defence is a goalkeeper that inspires confidence and I can’t say that Zhevnov has ever inspired me with confidence so I am not sure that his defence will feel happy about Malafeev’s absence!
Danny’s absence is usually a big problem for Zenit and it may prove to be so here too. I am not so sure, though – Benfica are not playnig with confidence and Zenit have lots of experience and goalscoring ability in midfield in the shape of Zyrianov, Shirokov, Faizulin, Denisov, and Huszti, not to mention Arshavin, who is sadly ineligible for this game. Still, the prospect of Zenit favourites Arshavin and Kerzhakov being re-united in attack is a mouth-watering prospect as they were the duo that inspired Zenit to European success all those years ago. Kerzhakov is a dangerous striker anyway and I think he’ll punish Benfica here as Benfica are not a clean sheet side!
Summarised; I cannot advise you all enough against betting on the 1×2 market. However, taking over 2.5 goals at 4/5 looks a bit of a steal here with the proviso that Benfica actually damage Zenit at some point and force the Russians out of their shell.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Tuesday’s Picks
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Arsenal vs AC Milan (5) 2-1
SL Benfica vs Zenit St.Petersburg (5) 2-2
Copa Libertadores:
Penarol vs Universidad de Chile (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Vasco da Gama vs Alianza Lima (5) 1-0
Union Espanola vs Universidad Catolica (6) 2-1
Asian Champions League:
Brisbane Roar vs Tokyo (6) 1-0
Gamba Osaka vs Pohang Steelers (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Ulsan vs Beijing Guoan (7) 1-0
Bunyodkor vs Adelaide United (8) 2-0
Nasaf vs Al Jazira (5) 1-1
Bani Yas vs Al Arabi (5) 1-0
Al Rayyan vs Esteghlal (6) 2-2
Al Ittihad vs Pakhtakor Tashkent (7) over 2.5 goals
Belarusian Super Cup:
BATE Borisov vs Gomel (7) 1-0
English Championship:
Bristol City vs Leicester City (6) over 2.5 goals
Peterborough United vs Millwall (6) over 2.5 goals
Derby County vs Blackpool (7)
Hull City vs Leeds United (5)
Nottingham Forest vs Doncaster Rovers (6)
Middlesbrough vs Barnsley (7)
Southampton vs Ipswich Town (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Coventry City vs Crystal Palace (5)
Reading vs Portsmouth (7)
English FA Cup:
Birmingham City vs Chelsea (6) 1-1
Estonian Super Cup:
Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva (7) 2-0
French Ligue 1:
Evian Thonon Gaillard vs Olympique de Marseille (6) 1-1
Russian Premier League:
Amkar Perm’ vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (4) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!