Turkey vs Northern Ireland
FreeToday’s featured game is the International Friendly between Turkey and Northern Ireland. The game is being played in USA for some utterly inane reason that I’ve yet to fathom. Perhaps they’re preparing for difficult ground conditions ahead of their respective World Cu…oh no, wait – neither side are in the World Cup. So why the fuck is this game being played about 5000 miles across the ocean? The only conceivable reason that this game could be played in USA is that they randomly asked George Bush to pick any place in the approximate 1500 miles between Northern Ireland and Turkey (i.e. France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Greece etc. etc.) and he decided upon…USA!
Well, rant over, onto the game. New manager Guus Hiddink will be watching this game from the stands to assess his future team so they’ll no doubt be out to impress. We all know Turkey are a capable side due to their high number of quality players and their 2-1 win at home to the Czech Republic a few days ago gave me confidence that they still know how to put the ball in the net. Turkey are one of those bizarre sides that tend to turn up better away from home rather than at home due to the pressure of their psychotic fans so I expect a free-flowing and confident Turkey display today. My main criticism of the Turks is their lacklustre approach towards defending but frankly I don’t expect that to be an issue today due to the below information.
What is that information? Well, it’s similar to the information that affected the Croatia vs Wales game the other day in the sense that Northern Ireland are crippled with injuries and are taking a second string. Their most experienced player that is going out there is Warren Feeney and needless to say that Northern Ireland’s second string isn’t in the same league as their first team. The likes of Corry Evans (Jonny Evans’ brother), Andrew Little, and Josh Magennis will replace all of the usual regulars so there’s no Healy, Taylor, Patterson, Evans, Brunt, Mccann, Lafferty, Clingan, or Hughes. Bluntly, this Northern Ireland side is massively under-strength and as you’d expect from a stretched first team – their second string simply isn’t good enough. The entire team plays its football in the British Isles so their squad will always be a competitive one and fairly well-organised but they’re just not good enough to compete with Turkey today, realistically.
So long as Turkey put their backs into this game then I’ve no qualms about their ability to beat the handicap. They’re by far and away the superior side and have the freedom to show it today. I thoroughly expect a strong Turkish victory today and the odds are good enough to back them on the handicap.
Verdict: Turkey to beat the -1.75 handicap at 13/10.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips;
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Switzerland U21 vs Turkey U21 – home win at 10/11.
For some bizarre reason, Switzerland and neighbours Austria have both suddenly started producing really good U21 sides! I can’t really explain it so I’m not going to try but the improvement in that general area of Central Europe over the past twelve months has been superb.
Switzerland U21 have only lost once in their last twelve games (which was one of those freak games where they lost at home to Estonia U21 without even scoring) but have been rampant on the goalscoring front in their past few games, scoring twelve goals in their last five games, four of which were away from home. They’ve won six out of their last seven home games, a run which included games against “superior” Netherlands U21 and Spain U21 sides respectively, so the Swiss have certainly done enough to earn your respect. They’ve been on-fire of late and a win today virtually guarantees them a place in the UEFA European U21 Championships in Denmark in 2011 so they’ll be keen to see it done.
Turkey U21 lost at home to Switzerland just a few games ago and it wasn’t a smash-and-grab victory either – it was a comfortable 3-1 win for their composed and well-organised visitors. Turkey U21 have done little to improve their form since then either with their most recent game being a few days ago in Estonia where they lost 1-0 to Estonia U21, somehow. Prior to that, they had bizarrely drawn 0-0 at home to Estonia U21 and as much as I respect the Baltic nation, there’s no on earth that Turkey U21 shouldn’t be beating them with the quality available at their disposal. During their last five games, Turkey U21 have been embarrassing, if I’m honest. They’ve lost three times, drawn once, and won once. Their only victory was an unconvincing 1-0 win at home to Armenia and they’ve surrounded that victory with a 4-0 humiliation against Georgia U21 and a battering at home by their hosts today. Things are looking increasingly bleak for Turkey U21 with a shoddy defence and little goal-threat so I don’t rate their chances at all today.
Normally these kind of odds would be too low for me to go near but I honestly feel that the bookies have given the Turks more respect than they deserve because of their name and reputation. The Swiss are playing so well at the moment and the Turks so badly that the hosts should be about 4/6 for this one so I’ll take the home win at 10/11 without a second thought with the above information in mind!
Verdict: Switzerland U21 to win at 10/11.
Estonia vs Croatia – lay Croatia at evens.
The odds on Estonia today are too long for my liking; dangerously so. Croatia have done well in their previous two games but have to be noted for their lack of goals. It took them eighty-five minutes to break through a resilient Austria and they managed to score just two goals against what was effectively a home game against Wales’ second string. Their displays were good but their goalscoring was not. What would you now think if I said that Croatia had no strikers fit for this game? Would you be concerned? I would be and thus I am concerned for them today. They’re not playing a mindless rabble of idiots. Estonia have become a lot more composed and astute in defence in recent times and their results reflect that. They’ve not conceded in their last three home games against Finland, Albania, and Belgium respectively, winning two of those games. They’ve hosted Brazil here and only lost 1-0 and have only lost three out of their last thirteen games at home. Basically, don’t underestimate the Baltic outfit – they’re better than they used to be. Estonia aren’t great with goalscoring but their morale-boosting win at home to rivals Finland in the past few days will certainly have perked them up for this game and I can see them making life very unpleasant for Croatia today. I expect a physical game with plenty of cards but I don’t see many goals at all due to Croatia’s injuries. I think a 0-0 is on the cards or possibly even a 1-1 but if the reports of Croatia having no fit strikers is correct then laying Croatia at evens looks a good bet today.
Verdict: Lay Croatia at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
FK Ventspils, Turkey, Netherlands, France, Chile.
Recommended bets:
Turkey, Netherlands, and France at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Switzerland U21 vs Turkey U21 (7) 2-0
Baltic League:
FK Ventspils vs Flora Tallinn (8) 2-0
Suduva Marijampole vs Liepajas Metalurgs (5) 0-0
Colombian Primera A:
La Equidad Bogota vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (6) 2-1
International Friendlies:
Moldova vs Azerbaijan (6) 2-1 (played in Austria)
Turkey vs Northern Ireland (9) -1.75 handicap (played in USA)
Estonia vs Croatia (5) 1-1
Netherlands vs Mexico (8) over 2.5 goals
France vs Costa Rica (7) 2-0
Chile vs Zambia (8) over 2.5 goals
Uruguay vs Israel (7) under 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!