Universidad San Martin vs Deportivo Quito
FreeToday’s featured game is the Copa Sudamericana game in Peru between Universidad San Martin and Deportivo Quito. It’s been some time since Universidad featured in the Copa Sudamericana but their continental experience in recent years is strong following their swift ascent to power in Peru so they know what awaits them tonight. Visitors Deportivo Quito have long been a powerhouse in Ecuadorian football too so tonight’s game should be very interested indeed, particularly with the first leg finely poised after a 3-2 win for Deportivo Quito.
Hosts Universidad San Martin are not only currently the best side in Peru but they continue to strengthen their squad all the time and thus are always a threat. With three games remaining in the Peruvian Primera Division, Universidad San Martin are nine points clear and thus have effectively won the title barring some kind of miracle. They’ve perfectly demonstrated their strength in-depth by beating Alianza Atletico 3-0 away from home despite having played in Ecuador just two days before so this Universidad side is very much capable of competing on several fronts at once.
To establish why Universidad are such a good side in Peru, you have to see what makes them different, and that quite simply is their goalscoring ability. Peruvian sides have not topped continental football in South America for some time but if any side can then it’s Universidad. What makes their ability to score goals so different from other Peruvian giants though? It’s basically the influx of Argentinian strikers that does it. If you look at the national history of the Peruvian national team, you’ll find very few natural goalscorers because they don’t produce many, hence Peru’s problems in winning internationals. You have to go back about fifty years to find proific Peruvian goalscorers and their two most notorious for it were Fernandez and Cubillas and Cubillas was a midfielder! Those two are the top two goalscorers of all time for Peru and third in that line is talented playmaker Nolberto Solano, yet another midfielder. Are we seeing a pattern here? Peru rarely produces great goalscorers. They’ve had a lot of “nearly” strikers over the years i.e. Holsen, Chavez, Guerrero but the only one in my mind is Claudio Pizarro – the rest aren’t good enough.
Universidad know the above so they front their attack with prolific and talented Argentinians and it pays huge dividends each time. They have three Argentinian strikers – Arriola, Alemmano, and Vitti. Despite the other two outscoring him, the one I rate the most highly is Vitti although they all contribute in their own ways. Vitti was a frustratingly good striker when he came through the ranks at Rosario Central and his career naturally followed a frustrating path as he moved to Ukraine to play for Chernomorets Odessa and that didn’t work out and then to Toronto to compete in the MLS before eventually returning to South America where he belongs, in the home of tempremental footballers. I’ve no doubt in my mind that Vitti could have been as good as say Mauro Zarate is now had he applied himself correctly but such is life. His pace and lethal finishing make him a great addition to this squad though. Universidad brought Arriola in this year from Paraguayan giants Nacional Asuncion and he has bags of continental experience which has shown massively this year and Alemanno is having his best season for Universidad since signing from Argentinian Primera Division misfits Quilmes a couple of years ago. All in all, it’s falling into place very well indeed for Universidad San Martin and although their defence is rocky, they always bring goals to their games and that’s largely why I fancy them so much tonight. Their home form in the Primera Division this year has been beyond dominant with eleven wins in thirteen games and an average of over two goals scored per home game and although this is obviously a different game as it’s a continental competition, it still helps to see how strong Universidad are at home.
A positive point for visitors Deportivo Quito is that altitude is not a massive factor here, unlike in most of their away games in continental competition. Why? Well, Lima and Quito are both massively above sea level which is why I gave Universidad their chance away from home in the first leg but a late goal for the Ecuadorians secured them a 3-2 victory in dramatic fashion. I have an awful lot of respect for Deportivo Quito for remaining amongst the top sides in Ecuador despite their well-documented financial issues but their form is starting to stutter on the continent because as a whole, Deportivo Quito don’t score enough goals. The likes of Ivan Hurtado add bags of experience to this side, which is essential to Deportivo Quito. However, it’s on the road in continental competition that their impotence in front of goal truly shines with just two goals scored in their last six away games, losing four of those games convincingly, drawing once, and winning once. I think Universidad’s defence is poor enough to leak at least one goal against Deportivo Quito tonight but Deportivo’s defence on the road is shaky so this game has all the hallmarks of an over 2.5 goals game!
Even so, Deportivo Quito still lack a natural goalscorer in this side and that’s basically why I am going against them tonight. Both sides can score goals tonight but Deportivo’s will rely upon Universidad’s defensive lapses; Universidad can score goals for fun against anyone. Universidad have to win this game tonight whatever happens so they’ll approach it with all guns blazing and with home advantage, you have to favour them here. Deportivo will try to nullify the Peruvians with their stout defence but they don’t seem to have got the idea yet that they can’t defend well away from home in this competition so I’m going against them today. For me, the home win should be 8/13 at longest here with the above in mind so why it’s 4/5 is beyond me. Therefore, the home win at 4/5 looks a good value bet for me tonight and it should be a cracking game to boot!
Verdict: Universidad San Martin to win at 4/5.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Republic of Ireland U21 vs Estonia U21 – both sides to score at 11/10.
Aside from on name alone, I cannot understand why Republic of Ireland are priced at 2/5 for this game. Much like their first string, Ireland aren’t great at scoring goals. Consider that they’ve not scored more than a single goal in a qualifying game at home since 2006 and you’ll see what I mean. They usually get their token goal as they have done for five out of their last six home games in competitive encounters but that has only once yielded a win for the Irish so laying them today at 4/5 also played on my mind with this bet, particularly as I personally consider the Estonians to be better than them currently. They’re a frustrating side, Estonia, but their arising talent is undeniable as a recent victory at home to Turkey indicated, especially so with just three defeats in their past ten games. They’ve notched up five goals in their past three games and have only failed to score once in their last ten games which was a 0-0 draw at Turkey, which I feel is a rather respectable result anyway! With the above in mind and the reversal of the fixture ending 1-1 in Tallinn, you have to feel that taking both sides to score here at 5/6 is a good value bet today. I actually think Estonia might nick the win today if they play to their best but my favourite bet by far is backing both sides to score.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 11/10.
Italy vs Ivory Coast – Both teams to score at 5/6.
The bookies have finally realised just how much Italy have declined and odds of 6/5 on them to win this game look more like what they should be nowadays. I’d have looked at Ivory Coast DNB today had Drogba not missed out but I’ll settle for both sides to score instead. Ivory Coast are a pacey and powerful side and those are two characteristics that the Italians hate to play against with their slow game. I think that combination alone will yield at least one goal for Ivory Coast despite the absence of their talismanic striker. I’ve actually got more doubts over Italy scoring than I do over Ivory Coast scoring but I ultimately feel that their classier players and gifted set piece takers will eventually find them a goal one way or another against a somewhat unreliable Ivorian defence. Good luck if you back a winner in this one as I won’t be but backing both sides to score at 5/6 looks a good bet for me today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Slovenia U21 vs Republic of Macedonia U21 – lay Slovenia U21 at 8/5.
I can’t accept that Slovenia are 2/5 to win this game at all. I’ll admit that they have marginally better youngsters than the Macedonians but not to that degree. The part that I can’t accept the most is that Slovenia have really struggled to score goals of late. I like their side, Matavz and Mihelic especially, but two goals scored in their last five home games is not a record that merits 2/5 on a home win, especially as one of those goals was against Malta. Say what you will about the Macedonians and I know how weak their defence can be on occasion but one thing they always bring to their games at the moment is goals. They’ve scored in five out of their last six games, including three at England, one at home to Portugal, and even one at a very good Greece side. Macedonia don’t win enough games as a rule but they score plenty of goals and with Slovenia so impotent at the moment, laying the hosts at 8/5 looks a good value bet today.
Verdict: Lay Slovenia U21 at 8/5.
Malta U21 vs Wales U21 – Wales U21 to keep a clean sheet at 4/5.
This has to be a joke, surely? These odds are phenomenal! I can’t count the number of good value bets there are in this game – Wales to win outright at 1/2, Wales to win both halves at 3/2 etc. but I’ve elected for Wales to keep a clean sheet at 4/5. Why? Well, Malta is hardly a footballing giant and although their football is gradually rising, they’re still not a goalscoring side. They’ve not scored in nine competitive games, a run which stretches back to 2007, and have lost all nine of those games. I’ll admit that this game is a friendly but those statistics don’t just disappear because of that. Wales have always had a good youth side and I think it’s partially because Toshack gives his kids a chance (like he has a choice anyway!) so they know each game could be the one that gets them into the senior team. Just look at Wales’ record in competitive games of late – they’ve beaten Italy 2-1, Bosnia 2-0, and Hungary 4-1 to name a few. This side has goals and plenty of ability and although their players often chance because they’re called into the senior team, their talent is somewhat undeniable so this game could be a real gem to bet on today. I feel there’s an awful lot of money in this game so take your pick on what you prefer – my favourite is Wales not to concede at 4/5, however!
Verdict: Wales U21 to keep a clean sheet at 4/5.
Morecambe vs Coventry City – away win at 6/5.
Morecambe are a very resilient side indeed and I rarely go against them but I can’t overlook good odds of 6/5 on the away win here. Coventry won against Portsmouth in their opening Championship game of the season 2-0, which was basically a stroll in the park for the much-fancied side in a race for promotion this season. They play well as a unit and when Eastwood is in-form, they score goals and win games. They’ve tended to start seasons well in the past few years so I’m going to bank on that continuing today. Morecambe were beaten 2-0 by recently-relegated Wycombe Wanderers at weekend as their usually solid defence hasn’t had time to become as “immortal” as normal, which is something else I’m banking on today. If this game was mid-season then I’d probably leave it but I believe Coventry City will have their own way in this game and with their impressive possession game shown over the past year or so, I fancy them to win the game outright at good odds of 6/5.
Verdict: Coventry City to win at 6/5.
Peterborough United vs Rotherham United – home win at 4/6.
Are Peterborough seriously 4/6 to beat Rotherham? This side has only just been relegated from the Championship but largely because of their defence, not their ability. Peterborough are still an unbelievably resilient unit and any Peterborough side with Boyd in has a great chance of succeeding. Rotherham have bottled a lot of their big games over the past six to nine months and despite their obvious ability, they tend to let themselves down through not scoring enough goals. Rotherham meandered their way to a nervous 2-1 victory at home to Lincoln at weekend whereas Peterborough romped home 3-0 against supposed promotion rivals Bristol Rovers so it’s easy to see which side has adapted their aims the better this season as Peterborough aim to return directly to the Championship whereas Rotherham still only just convince me that they’re good enough to compete for a place in League One. Cup games have different logic within them, I know, and I half-expect a good game between these two sides. However, I cannot accept for one moment that Peterborough are longer than 1/2 for this game – that’s just ludicrous in my eyes and should be a good value bet today as a result.
Verdict: Peterborough United to win at 4/6.
Exeter City vs Ipswich Town – away win at 6/5.
I don’t like betting against Exeter in the West Country but I’m going to do so today because I have an immense level of belief in both Roy Keane and his Ipswich Town. Exeter are a tricky side to face at home because they keep it tight at the back and constantly press their opponents, which is why they only lost four League One games at home last season. They did it to Colchester United at weekend too, drawing 2-2 in the end. They’re a side not to underestimate, to be blunt. However, Ipswich surprising seemingly the whole world barring me by beating Middlesbrough at weekend. I’ll admit I had the game as a draw but Ipswich’s ability is undeniable – although was questionable last year was their ability to put the ball in the net and now Hungarian striker Priskin appears to finally be ready to show his true potential, Ipswich have to be considered a very dangerous side indeed this year because their defence doesn’t ship many goals at all. They won 3-1 at a good Middlesbrough side thanks to a well-organised display and clinical finishing and I expect more of the same from Ipswich today. Either way, the away win at 6/5 looks to be good enough value to take a chance on today although I’d leave it if it hits evens as Exeter are tough at home.
Verdict: Ipswich Town to win at 6/5.
Scunthorpe United vs Oldham Athletic – home win at 4/5.
Seriously? I know some sides don’t take this competition seriously but everything I’ve ever seen about Scunthorpe United tells me they’re a serious side in every game that they play in, right from the chairman to the players to the manager to the fans. They won 2-1 at much-fancied Reading at weekend thanks to their spirit, not their ability. They’re a side that are hard to beat and although their undoing last season was their defensive ineptitude, particularly on the road, one thing they always brought to their games was goals, and especially so at home. Scunthorpe become a very different side at Glanford Park and that’s what I’m banking on today. They’re not always the tighest at the back when they push on to score goals but they often outscore their opponents at home thanks to efficient football so they’re not a side to take lightly. Oldham used to be a good side and whereas they still have some spirit, they’re still sadly lacking in the talent department. They did well to win at Tranmere Rovers on the opening day of their League One campaign at weekend with new manager Paul Dickov getting the ideal start. However, they’re facing a much better side today; a side that will exploit their defensive weakness. I just don’t understand why Scunthorpe are as long as 4/5 for this game – they should be 8/13 at longest for me so there should be value in the home win here. Hell, I even fancy them on the handicap given their potency although I’ll have to see their line-up before deciding for sure.
Verdict: Scunthorpe United to win at 4/5.
Northampton Town vs Brighton & Hove Albion – away win at 7/5.
This is probably my riskiest call in the League Cup today but I still like it. Brighton sort of slipped by unnoticed last season despite the massive number of goals they scored away from home. Despite finishing mid-table, Norwich City, Leeds United, Southampton, and Swindon Town scored more than they did on the road and they only lost five away games as a result. They’ve started this season in similar fashion by claiming an impressive win at Swindon Town at weekend so don’t underestimate Brighton, despite their shoddy defence. Northampton impressed me for spells last year but they’ve already signalled that they don’t want to appear much on my site this season by being crushed 3-0 at Torquay United at weekend. Torquay is an intimidating away game for lower-league sides, admittedly, but that scoreline is totally unacceptable on a quality level and shows Northampton’s true colours. Northampton’s strength is generally defence with goals hard to come by but without defence, they just look weak. Brighton’s defence makes this bet dangerous but their attack makes the odds look juicy at 7/5; up to you if you try your hand at it or not!
Verdict: Brighton & Hove Albion to win at 7/5
Accumulator fodder:
England U21, Liga de Quito, Leicester City, Doncaster Rovers, Peterborough United, Southampton, Queens Park Rangers, Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod, Kuban Krasnodar.
Recommended bets in no particular order:
Ipswich Town, Leicester City, and Peterborough United at 4/1.
Queens Park Rangers, Scunthorpe United, and Coventry City at 4/1.
Doncaster Rovers, Brighton & Hove Albion, and Southampton at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Copa Sudamericana:
Universidad San Martin vs Deportivo Quito (8) 2-0
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Republic of Ireland vs Estonia (6) 1-1
International Friendlies:
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Qatar (7) 2-1
Italy vs Ivory Coast (5) 1-1
Slovenia U21 vs Republic of Macedonia U21 (4) 0-0
Malta U21 vs Wales U21 (7) 0-2
England U21 vs Uzbekistan U21 (9) -1.5 handicap
Cyprus U21 vs Israel U21 (6) 1-2
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Liga de Quito vs Independiente (8) 2-0
English League Cup:
Leicester City vs Macclesfield Town (8) -1.5 handicap
Walsall vs Tranmere Rovers (5) 1-0
Carlisle United vs Huddersfield Town (6) 1-1
Stockport County vs Preston North End (5) over 2.5 goals
Barnsley vs Rochdale (7) 2-0
Morecambe vs Coventry City (6) 0-1
Doncaster Rovers vs Accrington Stanley (8) 2-0
Chesterfield vs Middlesbrough (6) 1-1
Peterborough United vs Rotherham United (8) 2-1
Bradford City vs Nottingham Forest (6) 1-1
Leeds United vs Lincoln City (7) 2-0
Sheffield Wednesday vs Bury (4) 0-0
Scunthorpe United vs Oldham Athletic (8) over 2.5 goals
Crewe Alexandra vs Derby County (5) 0-1
Exeter City vs Ipswich Town (7) 1-2
Southend United vs Bristol City (4) 1-1
Southampton vs Bournemouth (8) 2-0
Brentford vs Cheltenham Town (6) 1-0
Queens Park Rangers vs Port Vale (8) 2-0
Norwich City vs Gillingham (7) 2-1
Shrewsbury Town vs Charlton Athletic (5) 2-2
Northampton Town vs Brighton & Hove Albion (6) over 2.5 goals
Swansea City vs Barnet (7) 1-0
Plymouth Argyle vs Notts County (7) 1-0
Wycombe Wanderers vs Millwall (5) 1-1
Oxford United vs Bristol Rovers (5) 1-2
Hereford United vs Colchester United (7) 1-1
Milton Keynes Dons vs Dagenham & Redbridge (6) 2-1
Yeovil Town vs Crystal Palace (6) 0-0
Aldershot Town vs Watford (6) 1-1
Swindon Town vs Leyton Orient (6) 2-1
Russian Division 1:
Irtysh Omsk vs Rotor Volgograd (5) draw no bet
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan (7)
KamAZ Nab Chelny vs Salyut Belgorod (7)
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Avangard Kursk (8)
Shinnik Yaroslavl’ vs Zhemchuzhina Sochi (5)
FK Khimki vs Energiya Khabarovsk (7) under 2.5 goals
Baltika Kaliningrad vs Mordovia Saransk (5)
Dinamo St.Petersburg vs FK Nizhnyi Novgorod (6)
Dinamo Bryansk vs FK Krasnodar (4)
Kuban Krasnodar vs Luch-Energiya Vladivostok (8) under 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Armed Forces vs Geylang United (5) 1-1
Swedish Superettan:
Landskrona BoIS vs Osters (7)
Enjoy your free betting tips!