Universitario de Sucre vs Palmeiras
FreeToday’s featured game on a barren Thursday takes us to the dizzying heights of Bolivia as Universitario de Sucre host Brazilian giants Palmeiras. The Estadio Olimpico Patria welcomes Brazilian opposition here for the first time since Cruzeiro’s visit on the 5th March 2009 and the hosts will be keen to wreak revenge on their Brazilian opponents today as they lost on the night despite their opponents ending with ten men in a hard-fought 0-1 scoreline.
However, I should hastily point out that Cruzeiro’s fortunate victory was the only victory for an away side at this ground in continental competition for Universitario’s last five consecutive home games. They’ve drawn two of those games but have won their last two, not to mention the fact that they’ve kept clean sheets for three consecutive games. Universitario aren’t a particularly good side, per se, but playing your home games at approximately 2700 metres above sea level certainly has its advantages, especially when your opponents are finding it hard to breathe, let alone play football. My concern for the hosts tonight is that they’re currently experiencing a poor level of form domestically with four consecutive defeats although I’m yet to decide as to whether that’s due to the focus on the Copa Sudamericana or not.
However, Universitario have already impressed in this competition by seeing off very experienced opponents – Colo Colo of Chile and Cerro Porteno of Paraguay respectively – so they’ve done enough to earn my respect here. They’ve seemingly done enough to earn the respect of their opponents too with Palmeiras goalkeeper Deola admitting in an interview how tough this game is due to the swift pace of the hosts’ football as the visitors tend to struggle to adapt to the altitude, hence the hosts’ continual success in continental competition. Deola also said that he feels three days acclimatization is enough for the Brazilians but I have to disagree with that. If I remember rightly, FIFA announced a ruling a couple of years ago saying that for international sides playing away in the likes of Colombia and Bolivia, the visiting side needed at least 7-10 days to adjust acclimatize correctly. I cannot find this announcement anywhere, regrettably, so I’m unable to provide a source for this information. However, that would make sense – it’s not easy to adapt the human body to such a drastic change and I simply don’t think three days is enough, personally.
“Big Phil” Scolari has already stated the importance of this competition to Palmeiras as they aim to make their mark as the heavyweights of Brazilian football that they once were so don’t expect a poor showing here as we usually get from Brazilian sides in the Copa Sudamericana. Indeed, Palmeiras have taken a strong side to Sucre as you can see below so they’ll be fighting hard in this game. My problem with Palmeiras, despite them being the better of these two sides, is that they consistently fail to deliver away from home. They’ve won just four games out of fifteen on the road in Serie A this season and despite drawing nine times along the way (thus minimising their losses), their lack of interest in scoring goals on the road is frightening. I’d argue that Palmeiras are just one of two sides that are relishing the packed fixture schedule in Brazil currently with Palmeiras currently possessing a lengthy run of form without defeat but let’s be realistic here – this is their third game in eight days and this is the most difficult of them all, in my opinion. Trips to Bolivia simply cannot be taken lightly and that appears to be what the club’s doctor suggested they were doing by simply taking three days to adjust to local altitude and that in itself is an accident waiting to happen. Palmeiras’ defence and composure has been very good under Scolari so they’ll make their hosts work tonight but I really think the altitude is going to work against them, particularly with the hosts playing such an energetic style of football.
Squad information:
Universitario de Sucre:
I simply cannot find the information for this game that I require in terms of team news, sadly. The squad they fielded last match against Blooming La Paz was strong enough so I can only assume we’ll see a similar strength squad tonight as Unviersitario are taking this competition incredibly seriously despite having just qualified for the Copa Sudamericana 2011 already.
Palmeiras:
Goalkeepers – Deola, Bruno, Raphael Alemao
Defenders – Mauricio Ramos, Danilo, Leandro Amaro, Fabricio
Midfielders – Lincoln, Valdivia, Tinga, Patrik, Assuncao, Marcio Araujo, Pierre, Edinho, Rivaldo
Attackers – Kleber, Tadeu, Dinei, Luan
Barring the long-term absentee Ewerthon, the only notable absence is defender Vitor so Palmeiras do have a strong squad tonight.
With the above in mind, I really cannot understand why Palmeiras are at such short odds to win this game. Trips to Bolivia are not easy, even when the altitude advantage isn’t present, and this game is definitely not an exception. The hosts do have some good players and they’ve played some damn good football at home this season, not to mention beaten some good sides. Palmeiras will have to play better than I genuinely believe they can and with no real requirement for them to win this game (a draw plus a home win in the return leg should see them through), laying the visitor at 4/5 looks a much more generous price than it should be.
Verdict: Lay Palmeiras at 4/5.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
Nothing else appeals to me today, sorry guys! See below for my thoughts on today’s games anyway, should you wish!
Copa Sudamericana:
Universitario de Sucre vs Palmeiras (5) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Armed Forces (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!