Universitario Lima vs Libertad Asuncion
FreeToday’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores game in Peru between Universitario Lima and Paraguay’s Libertad Asuncion. Universitario Lima and Libertad Asuncion have both won their two Copa Libertadores games so far but one of them most surely give way tonight in what could be a pivotal group game for both sides.
Universitario Lima have already defeated Argentina’s Lanus here and have also won in Bolivia against Blooming La Paz so they’ve done their chances of qualification from this group a lot of good. Peru is one of the hardest places to travel in South America due to the severe altitude and tonight’s game is no exception. A defeat to title rivals Juan Aurich in their last domestic game won’t have done their confidence any favours but it’s a tough game to tackle when your priority is the Copa Libertadores which is effectively what Universitario are focusing on and who can blame them? They’ve had a good five days rest since that game and will be looking forward to testing their Paraguayan hosts on a ground where no away side has won since Velez Sarsfield of Argentina in 2006. Libertad’s bitter rivals Nacional Asuncion lost here last season and Universitario are unbeaten at home in their last five Copa Libertadores games. They’ve got a good level of experience in this competition as they’re one of Peru’s biggest sides and they know how to make their home advantage count as they’ve proven consistently in recent times.
Visitors Libertad Asuncion have been very impressive in this tournament too with a win at Lanus and a demolition of Blooming La Paz at home without even conceding a goal. Libertad are a capable side and have done very well this season but I’m not convinced due to the old geographical concern. Prior to their win at Lanus, Libertad had lost their last three away games consecutively in the Copa Libertadores (in Venezuela, Argentina, and on their last trip to Peru where they coincidentally faced tonight’s hosts Universitario) so they do struggle away from home. The only reason I can offer for their shock win at Lanus was defensive frailty from the hosts and a rigid defensive display from Libertad, which worked, to their credit. They’re facing a very different opponent tonight, however, one with genuine home advantage and a good level of ability all over the field as well as experience in this competition so I expect Libertad to struggle tonight.
Although this should be a close game between two good and in-form sides, Universitario’s home advantage should give them a real edge here. They beat Libertad here last season in the same competition and have already been proven to being a force at home in this year’s competition. Although this game could be a close one, I have to call the home win from a value-perspective, particularly considering Libertad’s atypical away form in this competition.
Verdict: Universitario Lima to win at 11/10.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fulham – home win with -1.75 handicap at 6/4.
Reigning champions Shakhtar Donetsk disappointed in the first leg of this tie against Fulham and succumbed to a 2-1 defeat. I attribute this to Shakhtar’d ineffectual football in the final third due to a lack of competitive match experience and also a scintillating display from Fulham, which was largely due to the tactical prowess of Roy Hogdson. Note that both Fulham goals came through exposing the centre of Shakhtar’s defence – Hodgson knows that Shakhtar haven’t replaced Chygrynskyi since he was sold to Barcelona and it worked wonders.
However, Shakhtar are now back on familiar turf. Their newly-built stadium has favoured their football style drastically with Shakhtar having won every domestic game at home this season whilst averaging scoring over three goals per home game whilst conceding just four times. On the continent, Shakhtar have won twice at home and drawn once with their only draw being a meaningless game at home to Belgium’s Club Brugge at the end of their group stages when they’d already qualified. Prior to that, Shakhtar had scored eight goals in two home games and conceded just once so their potency and ability is certainly not in question. Ukraine is a hard enough place to travel to without the pitch aiding Shakhtar’s expansive and free-flowing football so a weary Fulham look in for a rough ride tonight.
Fulham haven’t convinced on the road in Europe this season. They’ve lost at lowly Amkar Perm in Russia without scoring, they were fortunate to secure a draw at CSKA Sofia in Bulgaria, they won a tight game in Switzerland at Basel and claimed their only respectable display in Europe in an extremely unlucky defeat at AS Roma. I don’t need to explain about the gulf between Italian and English sides again as I’m sure you all know my thoughts on that matter so that’s how I’m accounting for Fulham’s good display. I’m more concerned by their consistent struggles on the road, particularly in Eastern Europe, and I feel they could be exposed tonight. Fulham have now played in three games in their last ten days and although they’ve performed well in those three games, their large but limited (quality-wise) squad is beginning to look a little stretched, something proven against Birmingham City. Zamora is in the form of his career and could be a potent threat but frankly his inconsistency over the years overshadows his present ability so relying on him to turn up is a little haphazard. Without him, Fulham struggle in attack so if Shakhtar nullify him then we should see a convincing home performance.
Although I’m a big fan of Roy Hodgson and Fulham’s work-ethic in general, I feel the trip tonight may be a bridge too far. Donetsk has an approximate weather forecast of -4 so this could be a very hard trip indeed for Fulham. In fact, no, scrap that – this will be a very difficult trip for Fulham irrespective of what they do or don’t do tonight. This is their toughest game too far and I think they’re going to be rudely awakened by a “total football” Shakhtar Donetsk side that threatened to embarass them at Craven Cottage with only a rusty display hampering their result.
Verdict: Shakhtar Donetsk to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 6/4.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Everton – away win at 15/8.
The odds for this game surprise me a little. Sporting are notoriously shy when it comes to scoring goals nowadays and that hasn’t changed in recent times. Indeed, it took a penalty for them to score at Everton in the first leg of this tie because they’re frankly impotent from open play. They’ve not scored in either of their two games on either side of their defeat at Everton despite facing two sides that they are better than – Pacos de Ferreira and Olhanense respectively – so I don’t see how they’re going to overcome an in-form Everton. Sporting are without a win in seven games in all competitions and have lost their last two home games consecutively. I just cannot see for the life of me how Sporting are going to penetrate this resolute Everton defence, to be frank.
Visitors Everton have proven in recent times just how good they can be. Although they’re missing central midfielders Cahill and Fellaini through injury (who are big losses), Everton have still managed to comfortably overcome Manchester United and Chelsea. Everton have won five out of their last six games in all competitions with their only blip being the derby against Liverpool. Everton are scoring goals for fun at the moment and I can’t see that changing for the trip to Lisbon tonight. Everton were crushed in Lisbon 5-0 by a rampant SL Benfica in the group stages of this competition but that was a weakened and demoralised Everton side that were heavily beaten. This Everton is far more resilient and organised so I find it hard to believe they’ll concede tonight but eight goals scored in their last four wins says that they’re amongst the goals at the moment so the possibility of them taking the win away from this ground against an impotent Sporting Clube de Lisboa surely has to be taken seriously.
Verdict: Everton to win at 15/8.
Blooming Santa Cruz vs Lanus – away win at 11/10.
This should be a really interesting game but for all the wrong reasons. Blooming Santa Cruz are an atrocious outfit because of the league they’re from and yet Lanus are playing some poor football at the moment and are conceding goals for fun so we should see a feast of goals here tonight.
Blooming don’t have the same advantage of most Bolivian sides with their altitude advantage being restricted due to their low-lying home ground. That showed in their 2-1 defeat at home by Peru’s Universitario Lima and the result could in truth have been a lot worse for the hosts. They followed up their home defeat with a 4-0 defeat in Paraguay at Libertad Asuncion so it’s hard to see how they’re going to produce something special to overcome opponents that are at least twice as good as they are. Blooming’s domestic campaign isn’t underway yet so their morale has taken a beating and they’re conceding far too many goals to consider winning this game, in my opinion, and should lose this game somewhat comfortably.
Lanus regained a little momentum last match when they drew at Newell’s Old Boys in the Primera Division. Whereas it’s a long way from “result of the year”, Lanus needed to stop the freefall and they’ve done so against a side that are good at home in their 1-1 draw. We all know that Lanus are a capable side but their defensive displays lately have been horrific, not to mention their lack of goals scored. It’s frankly better to overlook their domestic form in favour of their actual ability level or else you may be put off betting on what should be bargain odds! I’m choosing to look at Lanus gaining a respectable draw at Newell’s in their last game whilst only conceding once but also managing to score. This result may not seem like much on the outside but mentally I feel it’ll have done a lot for Lanus to give them a bit of confidence back. To be blunt, that’s really all they should need against a poor Blooming side that don’t have the ability to be on the same field as their opponents tonight.
Blooming Santa Cruz have now lost every Copa Librtadores game that they’ve ever featured in. That’s only four games, admittedly, but it’s a fact that they’re not unaware of so it may play a part in their performance mentally. Blooming know they’re not as good as Lanus so it’ll be interesting to see how they approach this game, particularly as Lanus are weak defensively currently. Do Blooming go all out to attack their defensively-inept opponents? Or do they hold back and try and gain a fairly respectable draw? I can’t see the Bolivians having the tactical ability to keep Lanus out so I suspect they’ll attack the Argentinians, which could be catastrophic as Lanus will expose them on the counter-attack. Either way, I expect the better side here (Lanus) to finally show their ability at the right end of the field against opponents that aren’t good enough to be in the division below them domestically although I would urge caution given Lanus’ goal-shy displays on the continent so far this season.
Verdict: Lanus to win at 11/10.
Recommended bets:
Juventus, Roma, Olympique de Marseille, and Shakhtar Donetsk at 5/1.
Universitario Lima and Lanus at 5/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
Galatasaray vs Atletico Madrid (5) 2-2
Anderlecht vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (6) 1-1
Olympique de Marseille vs FC Copenhagen (8) 2-1
AS Roma vs Panathinaikos (8) 2-1
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fulham (8) -1.75 handicap
Unirea Urziceni vs Liverpool (7) 0-1
PSV Eindhoven vs Hamburger SV (6) 1-0
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Rubin Kazan (6) 1-2
Juventus vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (8) over 2.5 goals
Valencia vs Club Brugge (7) over 2.5 goals
VFL Wolfsburg vs Villarreal (6) 1-1
Salzburg vs Standard de Liege (6) over 2.5 goals
Werder Bremen vs Twente Enschede (6) 2-1
Fenerbahce vs LOSC Lille (6) 1-1
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Everton (6) 0-1
Copa Libertadores:
Blooming Santa Cruz vs Lanus (6) over 2.5 goals
Once Caldas Manizales vs Sao Paulo (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Universitario Lima vs Libertad Asuncion (7) over 2.5 goals
Croatian Prva Liga:
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varteks Varazdin (6) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips