Uruguay vs Netherlands
FreeToday’s featured game is the World Cup Semi-Final between Uruguay and Netherlands. Uruguay have done fantastically well to get this far and should be proud of themselves. Netherlands haven’t showecased their full talents yet but they’re still here in the Semi-Final so I doubt they’ll be complaining today! Either way, I expect a great game between these two sides today.
First of all, however – how the hell are Uruguay 21/4 to win this game? Ridiculous odds for a Semi-Final so my first bet is going to be laying Netherlands over ninety minutes at evens, which is frankly unbelievable, particularly as Uruguay haven’t lost a game against anyone yet in this World Cup!
Anyway, Uruguay – they’ve got a few issues ahead of this game. Lodeiro is ruled out through injury and both Lugano and Godin are doubts with injuries. Uruguay’s defensive reliability stems entirely from Lugano and Godin being at the back. If they’re not there, Uruguay are going to struggle. Lodeiro is a useful outlet on the ball with his pace and ability to beat a man so again – Uruguay would miss him. Uruguay are also missing Jorge Fucile through suspension (although he’s injured anyway) and also Luis Suarez, who is also suspended. Uruguay are going to have to knuckle down and dig deep to take anything from the game today with so many potential absentees and the reliance on Forlan will be huge. Nonetheless, this Uruguay side has a spirit that they’ve not had for a long time and no matter what adversity is thrown at them – they seem to come up fighting and get something from the game. These two sides are the only two sides remaining in the competition yet to lose a game so don’t underestimate either of them, despite Uruguay’s defensive issues. I think Uruguay can cause problems of their own although it’s really bad luck that both Lodeiro and Suarez, who play their trade in Netherlands for AFC Ajax Amsterdam, cannot play against the Netherlands today as I’m sure they’d know what they’re up against very well indeed. Uruguay have to get Forlan on the ball all the time in this game and for the first time in the tournament, we may see Uruguay approach the game with a long ball approach and have Abreu hold up the ball instead of releasing Suarez or Lodeiro down either flank to create something. This style will unfortunately suit the Dutch, as they play a high defensive line, which is why I imagine that the Dutch will win this one. However, Forlan has been superb in this competition and if Uruguay get him on the ball enough then I do feel that he’ll either create or score a goal today so write Uruguay off at your own peril.
Ultimately, however, you do have to favour the Dutch. The odds on them winning this game are too short to interest me and I don’t think they’ll beat the handicap, particularly not a well-organised defensive side that are yet to lose a game. Netherlands have only beaten the -1.75 goal handicap once in this tournament so far so I’m not going to put money on them to do it in a high-pressure Semi-Final, although I don’t doubt the ability of their players to achieve such a feat. Netherlands have been somewhat unconvincing in this tournament – well, at least they were until they fought back from a goal down against Brazil in the Quarter-Final to win 2-1. They needed a bit of luck along the way but what side can win a game without some luck? The overall spirit of the Dutch and their imposing pressure on Brazil saw the five-times world champions buckle and the Dutch capitalised on that and arguably should have scored another goal in the game. Netherlands now have tremendous belief that they can win the World Cup, and why not? It’s been a long time coming but they’re definitely due one and have earned one over the past forty years, not that they have one yet though! The return of Robben has sparked fear in defences as we saw with Bastos being torn apart by the Bayern wide-man with him eventually being replaced in fear of him being dismissed for a second bookable offence. With no Fucile for this game, Robben will again have a lot of fun down his flank and that’s where I think the Dutch will profit the most, so perhaps look at backing Robben to score or assist in this game, if your bookmaker offers decent odds anyway! Netherlands’ defence is still shaky as they indicated in the first-half against Brazil so I suspect they’ll get caught out at least once in this game and concede as they have done in most of their World Cup games. However, in accordance with the outcomes of the majority of their World Cup games, I expect them to win too.
Unlike the majority of you, however, I expect a close game. I fear for Uruguay if they concede early in the game due to the players that they have missing but ultimately I can see both sides scoring in the game so I’m thinking that a 1-2 or 2-3 scoreline is possible today. I wouldn’t go with the handicap today although good luck if you do. Expect cards for Perez and Arevalo against a strong Dutch midfield and possibly even a red for either as a result of constant attacking through the middle. It’s hard to beat Uruguay with average attacks so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kuyt do a lot of damage coming in from the flanks so he may get his name on the scoresheet as well. Either way, my bet of the day is for the game to be won by a single goal, which I feel is priced generously at 27/20 considering that neither side has lot and that both have a tendency to score goals without great difficulty.
Verdict: Either side to win by a single goal at 27/20.
Other bets:
Lay Netherlands at evens.
Both teams to score at 21/20.
Goalscoring match-up in the game – Cavani vs Sneijder – Sneijder to win at 2/1.
A yellow card to occur before a goal, substitution, or half-time at 3/5.
Uruguay to get more yellow cards in the first-half at evens.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
Birkirkara vs Santa Coloma – Birkirkara to lead at half-time and full-time at 4/6.
This one speaks for itself, really! I think it’s fair to say that the bookies know they made a mess of the first game and got away with it because the game was rained off, which indirectly turned out to be the fault of Santa Coloma (somehow!). Thus a 3-0 win was awarded to today’s Maltese hosts, who are basically through today. However, the one defence that Santa Coloma have is literally their defence. Andorran sides have little ability in front of goal but if they have any intention of qualifying then they have to attack today and if that happens, they’ll get destroyed by Birkirkara. “Destroyed” is possibly a harsh word as the hosts aren’t prolific but I’d expect Birkirkara to lead in both halves as a result, basically. I can’t see the visitors scoring here but I can see the hosts doing the necessary damage today. I don’t like odds of 1/5 on the hosts to win this one as it smarts of the bookies over-compensating for their failure to present accurate odds in the first leg of this encounter so I’m happy to take Birkirkara to win both halves at a rather generous 4/6.
Verdict: Birkirkara to lead at half-time and full-time at 4/6.
Accumulator fodder:
Etoile, Birkirkara
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today – sorry guys!
World Cup:
Uruguay vs Netherlands (6) 1-2
UEFA Champions League Qualifier:
Birkirkara vs Santa Coloma (8)
Russian Division 1:
Energiya Khabarovsk vs Salyut Belgorod (7)
Luch-Energiya Vladivostok vs Avangard Kursk (7)
FK Khimki vs Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan (6)
Kuban Krasnodar vs Rotor Volgograd (7)
KamAZ Nab Chelny vs Mordovia Saransk (6)
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod vs FK Nizhnyi Novgorod (6) at least one red card in this game
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs Zhemchuzhina Sochi (6) under 2.5 goals
Irtysh Omsk vs FK Krasnodar (5) under 2.5 goals
Baltika Kaliningrad vs Shinnik Yaroslavl’ (6)
Dinamo St.Petersburg vs Dinamo Bryansk (5)
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Albirex Niigata (8) -1.75 handicap
Enjoy your free betting tips!