USA vs Costa Rica
FreeToday’s featured game is the World Cup Qualifier between USA and Costa Rica. This is the final game of the North American Qualifying section and a redundant one for hosts USA, who already qualified for the World Cup next year, as usual. In fact, if I’m honest with you, I feel it’s redundant for Costa Rica too because I cannot see Honduras winning at bitter rivals El Salvador, which is what they absolutely must do to have any chance of qualifying. I mean, think about it – Honduras to win at a side that has remained unbeaten at home against both USA and Mexico? Pull the other one! However, what fascinates me most about my featured game is the odds of 4/5 on the home win. At any other time of year and in any competition, I can virtually guarantee you that the odds of USA winning this game would be at the very least 1/2, most probably even more. You know why that is? It’s because USA are a much better side than Costa Rica! Who would have thought it?! Aside from this undeniable fact, let’s also examine USA’s home record in this particular stage of their World Cup Qualifying campaign. So far, it reads four games, four wins, nine goals scored, two conceded. In practice, this means USA average over two goals per home game and concede one goal every other game at home. They’re hosting a Costa Rica side that have lost three away games from four in this campaign, a side that averages conceding over two goals per away game. In actual fact, the last time Costa Rica even scored away from home against USA in the World Cup Qualifiers was in 1996, a total of thirteen years ago! You have to head back to 1985 for the last time that Costa Rica won a World Cup Qualifier here so I can say without fear of imploding that I fully expect a home win in this game and odds of 4/5 on this outcome are frankly outstanding when compared to the facts above! I can only recommend that you take this bet before the odds surely drop!
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
USA vs Costa Rica – home win at 4/5 – see introduction for full details.
Azerbaijan vs Russia – away win with -1.75 handicap at 10/11. This is quite a risky call, as much as it may look otherwise. Russia have already achieved a play-off place so will be looking to rest some players and give others a try (i.e. Kuzmin) in a redundant game at already-dismissed Azerbaijan. The hosts enter this game on the back of a rare victory as they won 2-0 at Liechtenstein. However, the fact remains that they are undisputedly a much worse side than Russia, whether the Russians field their first or second string. The one thing I will credit the Azeri with is that they’re resilient and a tough nut to crack at home. However, their lack of goalscoring at home is what I am banking on today because whatever side Hiddink fields for this game I can see scoring at least two goals because he’s a bloody good manager and Russia have some very good players at the moment. Although I expect this to be a long way from a walk in the park, I do think Russia will pass the -1.75 handicap at 10/11.
Germany vs Finland – home win with -1.75 handicap at 5/6. These odds really do astound me! It’s been some time since Germany possessed a squad that I could call world class and happily rely on them to be successful in any bet. However, they are still a good side, regardless of their performance at Russia last match and are more than capable of winning this game by two or three goals at least. Admittedly, this game is redundant for both sides with Germany having already qualified for next year’s World Cup and Finland having already crashed out. Germany will be under at least partial pressure to put on a show in this game and win it with some ease, however, and this Finland side could be the perfect opponents for them. Whereas I have a lot of respect for Finland’s experience, it’s difficult to ignore how often their defence is exposed by pace and how often then concede goals. Take the game at weekend against Wales, for example – an under-strength and youthful squad troubled Finland for seventy minutes of the game before Finland’s experience truly kicked in, they scored a good goal, and even then Wales could have equalised had they not missed a one-on-one. Finland’s shoddy defence is what I’m banking on for this handicap to come in because although they’re adept in the air, they’re weak on the floor. In my eyes, this is something of a bargain at 5/6 to see Germany win with a -1.75 handicap.
Italy vs Cyprus – under 2.5 goals at 11/10. I do love taking these bets with Italy because the bookies always give good odds on it. For the last four home World Cup Qualifiers, Italy’s games have gone under 2.5 goals three times out of four. Why? Well, they don’t like scoring or conceding goals, which is a pretty damn useful fact in this bet. What assists this bet further today, however, is the fact that this game is completely redundant for both sides. My only concern is that Cyprus might get a bit giddy in the knowledge that they’re a decent side these days and take the lead. I really don’t want that because Italy will then feel compelled to win and knowing the greasy, cheating, and smarmy bastards Italians, they’ll do it in the last minute. However, it’s an unlikely start, although very much possible, as indeed are all things in football. However, with the additional information that Cyprus have managed just one away goal in their last three World Cup Qualifiers away from home, you have to feel there’s some real value in taking under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Poland vs Slovakia – home win with draw no bet odds of 11/8. An awful lot of people are jumping on Slovakia for this game and whereas I can understand that, I have a few points to make it on too. Firstly, if the news I’ve received is correct, both Filip Holosko and Stanislav Sestak (strikers for Slovakia) are missing for this game, which impacted them significantly enough last match for them to not score at all. Admittedly, this game was somewhat dicey (hence me not specifically outing that game as betting value) as they lost to friendly “neighbours” Slovenia 2-0, which was coincidentally something that Slovakia could afford and Slovenia couldn’t afford to do without – well, excepting a draw. Either way, I’ll leave it by saying that I found the result somewhat remarkable! Anyway – the point I’m trying to get across is that I rate Slovenia on a par with Poland quality-wise. Poland have had their issues of late, it’s true, but now Beenhakker has been dismissed and Poland have a new coach, this is the perfect time to impress him. View this as his first home game in charge of Poland so all the players will be highly motivated. Let’s also not forget that Poland generally do well after a defeat, and even moreso in meaningless games, as odd as they are for it! Slovakia also have the arduous task of attacking Poland because they need a win (assuming that Slovenia win at San Marino, which they will) to automatically qualify for the World Cup next year. As quickly as people point out how good Slovakia’s attack can be, particularly with the strings being pulled by talented playmaker Marek Hamsik, they’re also decidedly quiet on Slovakia’s shaky defence, a defence that will most likely be tested superbly by a lightning-quick Pawel Brozek. Defender Adam Kokoszka may be handed a chance in this game after Serie B outfit Empoli finally decided to allow him to play after much fuss. Chances are slim that Mariusz Lewandowski will Captain the side for this game after his comments mid-week about how the Slovakia vs Slovenia game was “fixed” – or more specifically, that the FA of Slovakia or Slovenia should have “made an offer” to Poland for “their services” in deciding the winner of the group. Although this was intended as a j0ke, it wasn’t taken anywhere near as well as the Shakhtar Donetsk midfielder would have hoped! Jerzy Dudek is likely to be the goalkeeper for Poland today as it had been initially agreed that he’d be given a chance of playing this game. His idea of a starting place has been largely assisted by the recent blunders made by both Artur Boruc and Wojciech Kowalewski. So what we effectively has is a side that are currently overrated by the general public (no dig at their actual ability) with a game they must win as they face an unknown Poland that have a lot to prove to their manager and to themselves regarding actual quality and future squad places. For me, I think it’s the day that Poland show up and match (if not better) Slovakia (they showed signs against Czech Republic that they’re getting back to better days) to give the group leaders a really rough ride. As I mentioned previously, Slovakia are a good side so a draw wouldn’t surprise me here, hence taking the home win at 11/8 DNB. However, I can’t see an away win today in light of the above, which is a bold call but one I feel has a good chance of success.
Peru vs Bolivia – home win at 5/6. This could be a real gem today if things pan out as I expect. After a spirited display away to Argentina that had Diego Maradona shitting his pants, Peru return to familiar ground for their final game of the World Cup Qualifiers against second-bottom Bolivia. Visitors Bolivia enter this game on the back of an impressive home win against Brazil but much like their hosts today, they have no real motivaton for this game. I thoroughly expect this game to be as poor in football terms as anything you’re likely to see this year but in typical South American fashion, I expect it to be pacey, riddled with cards and no doubt with the occasional goal or two! However, I’m seeing value in the home win despite Peru being bottom of the table. Why? Well, both of these sides are atrocious away from home. Bolivia have actually conceded an average of nearly three goals a game on their travels, losing seven of their eight away games, drawing the other. A meager three goals on their travels says that Bolivia will struggle away to Peru to obtain any kind of result. A common misconception by the majority of people is that Peru are always shit, which isn’t true, I’m afraid. In this particular campaign, they’ve only been beaten twice at home. The only thing that seperates them from Chile is the fact that they didn’t win as many home games. Well, that and that Chile are a competent side particularly away from home but nonetheless I like the home win today. It’s the battle of the shittier teams in South America and my money’s on Peru at 5/6 for the above reasons!
Uruguay vs Argentina – home win at 7/5. What concerns me about this call is that it’s rapidly becoming a “public bet” and when that happens, shit tends to go wrong. These two sides are more evenly matched than people think, although it’s fair to say that Argentina have some better individuals than Uruguay, at least for the time being. However, these two neighbours are not far apart at all, either geographically or in terms of the team’s ability as a whole. Uruguay have only lost at home once in this campaign and although this was a comprehensive defeat by Brazil, the scoreline didn’t tell any of the story, which was the fact that Uruguay annihlated them in the first half without scoring. Had they scored then things could have been different but what the hell – this is all could/should/would, basically, but something you should be aware of. Uruguay at home are a very good, potent side – no side enjoys playing against them here. A very nervous-looking Argentina may well be on the receiving end of a real lesson from Uruguay here if they play like they did last match against Peru. I like watching Uruguay when they play in Montevideo because they play what the Dutch would call “total football” but in a South American fashion, naturally! It’s no surprise that they’ve done so well at home in these qualifiers either, particularly when you consider that they’ve scored more goals at home in this campaign than any other side, averaging over two goals per home game. Lastly, take the time to come to terms with the fact that the only two sides to have lost more (or even matched the number of) away games than Argentina are the bottom two sides in the group – Peru and Bolivia. Argentina’s away record is something I’d actually label as “horrendous” in the blink of an eye with five defeats from eight away games, just one victory and just five goals scored on that run – nearly a goal every other away game! Although Argentina can turn it on the blink of an eye, my bet is on Uruguay due to the above reasons at 7/5 although taking at draw no bet is also worthwhile to consider as I cannot for the life of me see an away win here. A little side-note – Uruguay have more motivation for winning this game as they then qualify automatically for the World Cup. Argentina will want to do a job here (i.e. get a draw) as they will most likely qualify anyway as I really cannot see Ecuador winning at Chile.
Cyprus U21 vs Slovakia U21 – away win at 5/6. A run of five unbeaten games has given me a great deal of faith in the Slovakia U21 side, particularly as some of their away results were particularly impressive i.e. the 2-2 draw at Norway U21 and the 2-1 victory at Serbia U21. Slovakia U21 beat Cyprus U21 1-0 in their last game, which was obviously the reverse of this fixture. Even without the above information, it’s more than apparent that Slovakia U21 boast a better team and a side that are also very potent, particularly when you consider that they’ve only failed to score in one of their last twelve games in all competitions. Unfortunately for Cyprus U21, they’re a side that do enjoy conceding goals, as well as not scoring them. They’ve conceded fifteen goals in their last nine games, losing seven of those games, and scoring in just one of their last three games. For me, this game has away win written all over it so thus looks a bargain at 5/6.
Shinnik Yaroslavl’ vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz – home win at 5/6. This game sees two of the bigger sides in the Russian Division 1 clash as both seek an automatic promotion place. Two wins in their last three games gives Shinnik Yaroslavl’ some good momentum entering this game, something they’ll need to overcome a tricky Alaniya Vladikavkaz. That said, the visitors today have lost two of their last three games, leaving them ripe for defeat. Although I expect a close game, I feel Shinnik Yaroslavl’ have shown enough of late to win this game and move a step closer to the Russian Premier League. As a final note, it’s worthwhile to consider the fact that Shinnik Yaroslavl’ were bought recently by a very rich company, a company which no doubt will not want them competing in the Division 1 next year instead of the Premier League. I’m not suggesting that this game, or indeed this league, is fixed – not at all! However, it’s funny how things work out sometimes, isn’t it?
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
World Cup Qualifiers – European section:
Kazakhstan vs Croatia (7) under 2.5 goals
Andorra vs Ukraine (10) -3.75 handicap
Azerbaijan vs Russia (8) 0-2
Germany vs Finland (9) -1.75 handicap
Latvia vs Moldova (8) 2-1
Switzerland vs Israel (7) 1-0
Greece vs Luxembourg (10) -2.75 handicap
Liechtenstein vs Wales (7) 0-1
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Spain (6) 2-2
Turkey vs Armenia (7) 2-1
Romania vs Faroe Islands (9) 2-0
Lithuania vs Serbia (8) 1-2
Bulgaria vs Georgia (7) 2-1
Italy vs Cyprus (7) under 2.5 goals
Republic of Ireland vs Montenegro (5) 1-1
San Marino vs Slovenia (10) -4.75 handicap
Czech Republic vs Northern Ireland (8) 2-0
Poland vs Slovakia (5) 2-1
Estonia vs Belgium (8) 0-2
Denmark vs Hungary (7) under 2.5 goals
Portugal vs Malta (10) -2.75 handicap
Sweden vs Albania (8) under 2.5 goals
England vs Belarus (8) 2-0
France vs Austria (4) 1-1
World Cup Qualifiers – South American section:
Peru vs Bolivia (5) 1-0
Brazil vs Venezuela (8) over 2.5 goals
Paraguay vs Colombia (8) 2-0
Uruguay vs Argentina (6) 2-1
Chile vs Ecuador (8) 2-1
World Cup Qualifiers – North American section:
El Salvador vs Honduras (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Trinidad & Tobago vs Mexico (6) 1-2
USA vs Costa Rica (8) 2-1
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Belarus U21 vs Albania U21 (8) 2-0
Russia U21 vs Moldova U21 (9) -1.75 handicap
Montenegro U21 vs Kazakhstan U21 (7) 2-1
Cyprus U21 vs Slovakia U21 (8) 1-2
Slovenia U21 vs Ukraine U21 (6) 0-0
Chinese Super League:
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan (6) 2-1
Chongqing Lifan vs Shenzhen FC (7) 1-0
International Friendlies:
Angola vs Cameroon (6) 1-2
Qatar vs Congo (6) 1-1
Japan vs Togo (8) 2-0
South Korea vs Senegal (8) 2-1
United Arab Emirates vs Jordan (7) 1-0
Tunisia vs Saudi Arabia (6) 1-1
Russian Division 1:
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Sibir Novosibirsk (7)
NoSta Novotroitsk vs Metallurg Lipetsk (7)
Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan vs Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast (6)
KamAZ Nab Chelny vs FK Chita (9)
Vityaz Podolsk vs Salyut Belgorod (5)
Cherno Novorosisk vs Energiya Khabarovsk (5)
Shinnik Yaroslavl’ vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz (8)
FK Krasnodor vs Luch-Energiya Vladivostok (6)
Baltika Kaliningrad vs FK Nizhnyi Novgorod (7)
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Young Lions (8) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!