Valerenga Oslo vs Molde
FreeToday’s featured game is the Eliteserien game between Valerenga Oslo and Molde. Both sides have really found fortunate to be against them so far this season but both have the opportunity to amend that tonight.
The side which has impressed me the most out of these two so far has been Valerenga Oslo by some way. Valerenga have only won one out of their four Eliteserien games this season but it’s worth noting that they side they beat was a much-improved Viking Stavanger, their two draws came against reigning champions Rosenborg BK and title challengers Stabaek (away!), and their loss was an unlucky defeat at a very talented Start Kristiansand. Valerenga arguably deserved something from the game but when the likes of Bolanos are scoring free-kicks from thirty yards against your team then you know luck is against you. Of course, Valerenga didn’t help matters by producing a lax defensive performance but overall they have impressed me this season and I feel they have a lot to offer, particularly if Mo Abdellaoue steps up to the mark this season as he’s more than capable of doing. Valerenga’s success tends to hinge on his performance so he’s becoming rather integral to their play. I also rate his striker Luton Shelton, who you may recall had a brief spell in England with Sheffield United, as he’s also a very pacey and capable striker. Ultimately, Valerenga are looking capable and only need a bit of fortune to make it count so should prove a handful for Molde tonight.
Molde are a funny side. They were runners-up in the Eliteserien last season and deservedly so after some superb displays. However, they’ve not really convinced this season. You could see that their luck was out in their opening game against reigning champions Rosenborg BK where they outplayed their rivals but still lost 2-1. Things have gone downhill from there with a defeat at relegation-battlers Sandefjord despite taking a one goal lead in the game. A draw against Start Kristiansand was respectable considering how well the hosts had been playing at the time but last match against Brann Bergen was purely a case of Brann collapsing inwardly on themselves as the visitors took a two-goal lead at Molde before allowing their hosts back in to win. You could even argue that Molde are being fortunate to get the few points that they’re currently receiving, such are their displays. However, fortune was out for star midfielder Thioune, who was on the receiving end of Brann “we can’t get the ball so we’ll try something else” lunge which will see him miss the next couple of months through injury. This was a blow that Molde definitely didn’t need at this time of the season and will now have to rely on iconic playmaker Magne Hoseth to spark some life into what I can only describe as a rather goal-shy Molde this season. Molde are missing striker Diouf since his departure to Manchester United with his brother not fulfilling the same requirements and new striker Bjorn Runstrom yet to settle properly. Ultimately, I think it’s fair to say that Molde simply don’t look ready for this game in terms of ability to win games and in terms of keeping opponents out, two things that they excelled at last season, so you have to feel they’re going to struggle tonight.
Valerenga Oslo have beaten Molde here for five out of Molde’s last six visits so they do know how to do it. Molde have failed to convince me consistently this season but Valerenga have despite facing an onslaught of difficult games so I feel that there’s value in the home win tonight.
Verdict: Valerenga Oslo to win at 11/10.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Vitoria Setubal vs Academica de Coimbra – home win at 11/10.
Both of these two sides are battling the dreaded drop into a tenacious Liga de Honra but the only one of these two sides that is showing any real determination to avoid the drop is hosts Vitoria Setubal. I actually rate both sides quite a lot and hope neither are relegated as they’re capable sides. However, Academica have really lost the plot lately and it’s shown from the fact that they’ve scored just once in their last five games, losing three times along the way. In their defence, they’re keeping it tight at the back and not conceding many but if you’re not winning games then you lose morale and that will eventually impact this stubborn defence of theirs. Academica have already lost seven out of twelve on the road this season due to not scoring enough goals and if they’re not careful then that statistic will relegate them. Setubal have been far from great at home this season but only four sides have won here so it shows that they are capable on their own turf. They’re on a nice little burst of momentum at the moment with no defeats in four consecutive games, even winning twice. Let’s face it – I wouldn’t be backing them for this game if they weren’t as they’re the most goal-shy side in the Liga Sagres at home. However, they’ve scored six times in their last four games, avoiding defeat against high-flying Sporting Braga and even overcoming a difficult CD Nacional so I’ve been impressed by Vitoria of late. If they’re scoring goals then it’s enough for me to take them to win this game because they’re a capable side but mask it well.
This should be a passionate game as both sides desperately need the points but I have to fair a Setubal side that is scoring goals for fun at the moment over an Academica side plodding along purely because they’re not conceding many. We should see a low-scoring affair between these two sides and possibly even a card-filled game but Setubal should win this game just as they have done for their last two Liga Sagres meetings here against Academica de Coimbra.
Verdict: Vitoria Setubal to win at 11/10.
Rubin Kazan vs Spartak Nalchik – home win with -1.75 handicap at 6/4.
Rubin Kazan at 4/9?! Why?! Is this the “how to judge a side in their past four games” bookmakers?!
Rubin Kazan have demonstrated over the past two season in the Russian Premier League that they’re one of the most tactically astute sides in Eastern Europe, let alone Russia. They’ve got a great team of players that will work for each other and their efficiency is top-notch. They don’t have many big names and are missing Alejandro Dominguez a little but they’re still a formidable force as they showed on the opening day of the Premier League season by sweeping aside a very good Lokomotiv Moscow side and by also beating rivals CSKA Moscow in the Russian Super Cup. If you require further proof then consider that Rubin are the only side in the Premier League currently that are yet to concede a goal. They’ve only scored three times in their four games played, which is a record that would normally worry me, but Rubin are an efficient side and I can’t see them not overcoming it. They proved last season that they’re not a “one season wonder” so I expect another committed shot at the title again this season. Rubin are far better at home than they are away, naturally, so their home draw against a Terek Grozny side that likes conceding goals did bother me but I’ll write that off as a temporary setback. The fact is that Rubin Kazan are a very good unit and have shown that by beating Spartak Nalchik here for three seasons running, beating the -1.75 goal handicap in their last two consecutively without even conceding a goal.
Spartak Nalchik have failed to score against Rubin Kazan in their last three meetings and it largely stems from the fact that they’re not good enough to do so! They’ve had a marvellous start to their campaign but is it any wonder with three of their first four games being against newly-promoted sides and the other game being against a side that marginally managed to stay in this division last year?! Spartak Nalchik are a battling side and they’ve learned that method the hard way by fighting to stay in this division year after year. I respect their experience as they knew they needed to start well to boost their chances of staying in the division this season. However, they’re facing the real deal today, a Rubin Kazan side that is capable of beating anyone in this country. Spartak Nalchik are playing well but they’re out of their depth here today and irrespective of their good form at the moment, I can’t see them taking anything from this tough trip today.
Rubin haven’t started as consistently as they’d have liked and Nalchik have surpassed all of their expectations so I can just about accept the bizarre odds that the bookies have placed on this one. Nonetheless, Rubin are twice the side that Nalchik are and I’ll be shocked if that doesn’t show today as it has done for three consecutive seasons. Rubin have been goal-shy lately but they’ve got the perfect opportunity to increase that today against little Spartak Nalchik. The visitors will come here hoping for a 0-0 draw but I don’t think that they have the Grozny level of fortune. If Rubin get an early goal then they should be able to comfortably beat the -1.75 goal handicap today that is very generously priced at 6/4. Even the home win at 4/9 looks good value to me because this game had it been mid-season would have been 1/3 without a doubt!
Verdict: Rubin Kazan to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 6/4.
Norrkoping vs Osters – home win at 5/6.
I can’t substantiate this one as well as I’d like as it’s the first game of the season. However, I have to say that I think the bookies have really underestimated Norrkoping here. Norrkoping are a good side – they simply had a bad campaign in the Superettan last season, thus only just avoiding relegation. However, towards the end of the season, they put in some very good displays and good runs of form in general so I’m surprised that the bookies think they’ll be struggling again. They’re a big side and should be in the Allsvenskan by rights so I expect them to be doing their utmost to be back there again this season with some equally as committed displays with hopefully as many beneficial results as the latter part of last year’s Superettan campaign yielded.
Osters are a newly-promoted side – as usual – and aren’t particularly good on the road. They’re a real yo-yo side so this situation isn’t unusual for them. The manner of their promotion last season was far from overwhelming and I’d be surprised to see them take anything from a trip to a galvanised and potential dark-horse side Norrkoping.
As I said, be cautious with this game as it is the first game of the season and surprises have been running amok in Sweden of late betting-wise. However, the odds on the home win here should be at least 8/13 in my opinion so there should be some value in the home win.
Verdict: Norrkoping to win at 5/6.
Accumulator fodder:
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza, Estudiantes De La Plata, Swindon Town, Steaua Bucharest, Orgryte, Thun.
Recommended bets:
Valerenga Oslo, Rubin Kazan, Steaua Bucharest, and Thun at 6/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Tigre (7) 1-0
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Racing Club Avellaneda (9) over 2.5 goals
Boca Juniors vs Arsenal de Sarandi (4) 1-1
Argentinos Juniors vs Colon de Santa Fe (5) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Sparta Prague vs Slavia Prague (7) 1-0
Danish Superligaen:
Nordsjaelland vs HB Koge (6) 2-0
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Cuenca vs Liga de Quito (6) 1-1
English League One:
Swindon Town vs Exeter City (7)
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
B68 vs IF Fuglafjordur (5) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Guingamp vs Nantes (6)
German Bundesliga 2:
St.Pauli vs Augsburg (6) over 2.5 goals
Greek B Ethniki:
Panaitolikos Agrinio vs Panserraikos (5)
OFI Crete vs Ionikos Nikaias (7)
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Omniworld vs Dordrecht ’90 (5)
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Valerenga Oslo vs Molde (6) over 2.5 goals
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Vitoria Setubal vs Academica de Coimbra (7) 2-1
Romanian Liga:
Steaua Bucharest vs Politehnica Iasi (8) 2-0
Russian Premier League:
Rubin Kazan vs Spartak Nalchik (8) -1.75 handicap
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Young Lions (6) 0-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Recreativo de Huelva vs Real Sociedad (7)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Orebro vs GAIS Goteborg (6) 1-0
Djurgardens vs Trelleborg (5) 0-0
Swedish Superettan:
Orgryte vs Vasby United (8)
Norrkoping vs Osters (7)
Swiss Challenge League:
Thun vs Biel-Bienne (8)
Turkish Super Lig:
Kayserispor vs Sivasspor (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!