Valur Reykjavik vs FH Hafnarfjordur
FreeApologies for yesterday, fellas – just a really bad day at the office.
Today’s featured game is the Urvalsdeild game between Valur Reykjavik and FH Hafnarfjordur. Valur used to be a big side in this division and they probably still are, in their defence, but they’re nowhere near as effective as they used to be. Visitors FH Hafnarfjordur, however, are still very much the daddies in this league and the opening game of the Urvalsdeild tonight is the opportune moment for them to emphasise that.
Valur Reykjavik had a dismal campaign last season because they simply didn’t score goals. That was all too evident in the 5-0 battering that FH Hafnarfjordur gave them here last season although that was also due to atrocious defending. Have things improved for them? Not really. They should be competing for a European place but they don’t look likely of being able to do so this season. I mean, come on – their top goalscorer last season was striker Helgi Sigurdsson, who is now thirty-five years old. Valur really need to bolster their attack but they’ve just not done so. The only two sides to score less than Valur last season were the two that got relegated – UMF Grindavik and Fjolnir Reykjavik – so they need to be very careful indeed this season. What’s that saying again? No side is too big to go down? It’s about nine or ten years since Valur were last in the 1. Deild – they need to perform miracles this season to avoid being there next season. Unfortunately for Valur, this season opens with a baptism of fire against by far and away the best side in Iceland and it’s a game that Valur just aren’t ready for, in my opinion.
FH have already proven that their machine-like efficiency still has its wheels entact as they beat Breidablik Kopavogur last week in the Icelandic Super Cup 1-0. It wasn’t a highly-polished result for the reigning champions but the result did prove to Breidablik that it takes more than money to challenge the true champions. FH have a terrific record at Valur Reykjavik, a record that stretches back through the times when Valur were a good side, let alone now! FH have won seven out of their last eight visits to Valur and haven’t even conceded in their last four games against Valur at either ground, winning on all four occasions. They’re simply a better side and their compact victory last week has given them a foothold on the momentum ladder with which they can set about Valur Reykjavik tonight. The visitors are simply too good for the hosts and giving them a victory to already take into this game to boost them is a very dangerous thing indeed as I expect the hosts to discover tonight.
All Valur can hope for in this game is that FH take a while to get going and don’t score too many as a result. However, it’s unlikely that will happen – FH loving beating Valur and I can’t see them doing anything but that tonight. For some inane reason, the bookies seem to think that 10/11 is an accurate representation of the odds on the away win. I disagree entirely but I’m more than happy to snap their hands off before they realise their hideous mistake and start lowering the odds on FH wins in the Urvalsdeild as the season goes on.
Verdict: FH Hafjarfjordur to win at 10/11.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Lanus vs San Lorenzo de Almagro – home win at 4/5.
Lanus have looked immense in recent times – back to their old unbeatable selves! They’ve not lost in eleven consecutive games in all competitions due to their strong defence and have started being more clinical as a result of their momentum. They’ve won three out of their last four home games, winning their last home game 4-1 against Arsenal de Sarandi. Lanus have already won five out of eight home games this season, tasting defeat just once along the way. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and look a real threat with such strong momentum behind them tonight.
San Lorenzo will be happy to see the back of this campaign after they’ve done little other than struggle. They’re a good side, however, so don’t underestimate them, but they just don’t score enough goals. They’ve already lost seven out of their nine away games this season and although they only just average over conceding a goal per game (which is a rather good record, in my opinion!), the fact that no side has scored less away goals than they have this season tells us why they’ve lost so many away games. They’ve not got the momentum to pull themselves clear of that poor record tonight, particularly not against a defensively-astute Lanus side. No side has lost as many away games as San Lorenzo have this season and I can only see that record worsening with the difficult away trip ahead of them tonight.
Lanus have such a good record against San Lorenzo that it’s unreal. They’ve won their last four home games against them and have won all of their last three meetings with San Lorenzo at either ground, two of which were away from home. They’ve got momentum behind them, home advantage, and the extra mental edge of having beaten San Lorenzo comfortably on frequent occasions so the odds of 4/5 on the home win tonight look rather generous indeed.
Verdict: Lanus to win at 4/5.
Amkar Perm vs Zenit St.Peterbsurg – away win at 10/11.
I really fancy Zenit to win the Russian Premier League this season and it’s form like this that makes me think they will. They’ve got one of the best sides in the division, in my opinion, but with three consecutive wins behind them they look even more dangerous. Zenit simply don’t concede goals, which is a fine assistant to any assault on a league title, and Zenit maximise its use more often than not. They use the style that Rubin Kazan did to win the last two titles but Zenit have the advantage of having better players due to a large financial backing.
Zenit have already won four out of their five away games this season, which is more than any other side. They don’t score many but as they’ve only conceded one away goal this season, it’s easy to see why they’re so successful. Amkar Perm employ a very similar style of football to that of visitors Zenit but they’re simply not as good as their more illustrious visitors. Amkar have already lost two out of their four home games in Perm this season against two of the division’s other giants beside Zenit – Spartak Moscow and Rubin Kazan – so they’re more than capable of losing today. Amkar haven’t really started going properly this season so the only way I can see them taking anything from this game is by keeping a low-scoring Zenit side out with a 0-0 draw. I’ll admit that there’s a chance of this occurring but a slender one given the strong momentum and clinical finishing of Zenit in recent times. I can only look at the away win today for a very impressive Zenit side and it should only take one goal for them to win it – I’d be surprised to see a repeat 2-4 scoreline of last season’s meeting with Amkar in Perm! Either way, odds of 10/11 are worth a punt for Zenit to win even if they’re not the best odds around because of the class and form difference between these two outfits.
Verdict: Zenit St.Petersburg to win at 10/11.
Accumulator fodder:
HJK Helsinki, Albinoleffe.
Recommended bets:
FH Hafnarfjordur, HJK Helsinki, and Zenit St.Petersburg at 5/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Lanus vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (8) 2-1
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Colon de Santa Fe (5) 1-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu (9) 3-1
FC Lahti vs Haka Valkeakoski (4) 1-2
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Valur Reykjavik vs FH Hafnarfjordur (8) over 2.5 goals
International Friendly:
Mexico vs Senegal (8) 2-0
Italian Serie B:
Albinoleffe vs Salernitana (8)
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Viking Stavanger vs Molde FK (7) 2-1
Romanian Liga:
Unirea Alba Iulia vs Dinamo Bucharest (5) 0-0
Universitatea Craiova vs CFR Cluj (6) 1-2
FC Poli Timisoara vs Gaz Metan Medias (8) 1-0
Vaslui vs Steaua Bucharest (5) 1-0
Rapid Bucharest vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (6) 2-1
Russian Premier League:
Sibir Novosibirsk vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (5) 1-0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Spartak Moscow (7) 1-2
CSKA Moscow vs Terek Grozny (6) 1-0
Amkar Perm vs Zenit St.Peterbsurg (7) 0-1
Rostov-na-Donu vs Rubin Kazan (5) 0-1
Russian Division 1:
Irtysh Omsk vs Kuban Krasnodor (6) under 2.5 goals
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs Khimki (5)
Dinamo St.Petersburg vs Luch-Energiya Vladivostok (5)
Shinnik Yaroslavl’ vs Salyut Belgorod (6)
Baltika Kaliningrad vs Energia Khabarovsk (6)
Dinamo Bryansk vs Avangard Kursk (5)
Zhemchuzhina Sochi vs Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan (7) over 2.5 goals
FK Krasnodor vs Rotor Volgograd (7)
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Balestier Khalsa (8) 2-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Hercules Alicante vs Cordoba (7)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Gefle vs Helsingborgs (7) 0-1
Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar (6) 1-1
GAIS Goteborg vs IFK Goteborg (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Swedish Superettan:
Jonkopings Sodra vs Assyriska Sodertalje (5)
Vasby United vs IFK Norrkoping (7)
Swiss Challenge League:
Thun vs Lugano (5) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Trabzonspor vs Denizlispor (7) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!