Veendam vs Excelsior
FreeToday’s featured game is the Eerste Divisie game between Veendam and Excelsior. Veendam have been strong at home this season but still find themselves lingering mid-table due to a lack of consistency. Visitors Excelsior have had a good campaign and find themselves near the top of the Eerste Divisie as a result.
Veendam have won eight out of sixteen home games this season, losing just three times. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game whilst conceding less than a goal per home (the joint-best record in the division along with top two De Graafschap and Cambuur Leeuwarden) so are a tough nut to crack at home. So why am I going against them? It’s a big call, I’ll admit, but there is method in the madness. Basically, Veendam have now played four games in eight days and burn out is definitely in place. All four games have been at home and they started strongly before unconvincingly beating poor travellers MVV Maastricht and then unthinkably losing at home to lowly Omniworld without even scoring in their last game. Veendam are a good home side but they’re going to be extremely tired from this run – who wouldn’t be? – and I think it’s really going to show tonight.
Visitors Excelsior were disappointing at home to Helmond Sport last match but their quality remains unquestionable so I’m siding with them tonight. They have still won three out of their last four games so do bring some good momentum into this game. They’ve won their last two away games consecutively so their tally for the season is now six wins in sixteen away games, which isn’t particularly flattering but does show that they’re capable. Excelsior’s biggest problem is conceding goals on the road as they average scoring approximately 1.5 goals per away game but concede nearly two goals per away game. However, their defence shouldn’t be tested often against a weary Veendam and one thing Excelsior always do is score so I think there’s value in the away win tonight.
This is probably the riskiest “game of the day” call I’ve made in some time but I think it’s got a good chance of success. Veendam are good at home but are absolutely knackered whereas visitors Excelsior are refreshed, potent, and have done well lately, particularly on the road. 7/5 on the away win looks good value although do approach with caution!
Verdict: Excelsior to win at 7/5.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Mons vs KVSK United – home win at evens.
Mons have impressed me in the second half of their Tweede Klasse campaign. Their ability was never in question but they’re now applying the necessary pressure to push them up the table. Mons’ statistics at home don’t flatter them due to an uneasy start to life in this division following relegation last season. However, eight wins in sixteen home games with just three defeats along the way does indicate how strong Mons can be at home. Only league leaders Lierse SK have scored more goals at home than Mons have so the hosts are somewhat potent with an average of nearly two goals scored per home game. Mons have won five out of their last seven games and have gone unbeaten throughout so Mons certainly know what they’re doing in terms of the promotion battle. What’s impressed me most about them is their lack of goals conceded, which is their catalyst for such an impressive run. Mons have conceded just twice during those seven games and both of those goals were in the same game in an unlucky draw at home to Tienen. Mons are tremendously strong defensively but tend to get that killer goal too so I fancy them to win this game tonight.
KVSK United are one of the division’s better sides – no questions asked. They’re a different side to Mons though, scoring freely but defending a little haphazardly at times as an average of a goal conceded per game for their last three games. KVSK have scored six times during those three games but they failed to register a goal at Lierse SK in their last away game, losing 1-0. I’m not going to deny the ability of KVSK United, particularly in attack, so this bet is a little risky. However, KVSK United have lost four out of fifteen away games this season so they are capable of being beaten.
This will be a very close game, make no mistake. However, KSVK have looked leaky of late which hasn’t been as evident due to their attacking superiority. I don’t believe they’ll be able to showcase their attacking talents tonight against a rock-solid Mons defence but I do expect the hosts to score so I feel that the odds shown represent good value for what should be a narrow home win.
Verdict: Mons to win at evens.
NK Zagreb vs Hajduk Split – away win at 10/11.
NK Zagreb are battling valiantly against relegation and really should achieve it irrespective of today’s result. They’re too good to be relegated, despite the cliché! The Prva Liga wouldn’t be the same without them so I do hope they stay up. They should be at least mid-table so don’t underestimate the hosts tonight – there’s a good reason that they’ve only lost four out of eleven home games this season! However, NK Zagreb have found goals hard to come by since their return from the winter break and have only scored more than once in their home game against a Varteks Varazdin side with a lot of issues. NK Zagreb have only won once since their return from the winter break so they’re struggling a bit for momentum and think they’ll struggle tonight against a superior opponent.
Visitors Hajduk Split haven’t had a great season, something proven by the fact that they’ve got Sibenik, Karlovac, and Cibalia ahead of them as none of those sides are better than they are. However, they are making a late resurgance this season and have started beating sides well again. Hajduk have only won four away games this season and have a nightmare head-to-head record at NK Zagreb. However, Hajduk won emphatically at Inter Zapresic during their first away game back from the winter break, drew at giants Dinamo Zagreb in the Nogometni Cup, and were unfortunately beaten by Dinamo’s second team – Lokomotiva Zagreb. Hajduk Split are putting in good shifts on the road however and I expect them to outscore a goal-shy NK Zagreb tonight.
This isn’t an official rivalry of any kind but the games between the two sides do tend to be somewhat tense so don’t be surprised to see cards here tonight. NK Zagreb are a bigger side than the table shows but so are Hajduk Split. It should be a good game between two under-performing sides but Hajduk look better than their hosts at the moment with general form and goalscoring so the away win looks good to me.
Verdict: Hajduk Split to win at 10/11.
Tranmere Rovers vs Norwich City – away win at 3/4.
Do I need to put a reason behind backing Norwich City against anyone in this division anymore?! They’re simply better than everyone and their form shows that incredibly well by itself. If anyone wants me to put my reasons here just ask and I will but Norwich City are basically leagues ahead of Tranmere Rovers in everything they need to be ahead of this game and I’m astounded that the odds are better than 1/2!
Verdict: Norwich City to win at 3/4.
Sedan-Ardennes vs Istres – home win at 4/5.
Although I appreciate that Sedan-Ardennes are very much a hot-and-cold side, these odds are nothing short of insulting when compared to their actual ability. Sedan haven’t won even nearly as many home games as they could and should have this season and only have themselves to blame for it. However, the fact that they’ve only lost two home games in Ligue 2 indicates how strong they are at home. Only a handful of sides have conceded less goals at home in Ligue 2 than they have but their average of scoring just over a goal per home game tends to underpin their defensive prowess, unfortunately. Sedan haven’t won or lost any of their last four home games but fortune has had a big hand in that. They’ve played four good sides and drawn against all of them but haven’t even conceded in their last two home games so it’s only a matter of time before they make it count, something I envision happening tonight.
Visitors Istres are a poor side. A seriously poor side. They’ve lost ten out of fifteen away games in Ligue 2 and average conceding nearly two goals per away game whilst barely managing to score a goal per every two away games. They’re fighting against relegation bravely but I just don’t think they have what it takes to escape the drop due to a lack of quality. The inconsistency of Istres has damaged them considerably this season with results like the impressive win in Corsica against AC Ajaccio being followed up by an unthinkable defeat at home by Clermont Foot. Istres simply concede too many goals and I think that factor will hurt them tonight.
Don’t get me wrong here – there is definitely a risk element in this bet. Neither side is playing particularly well and both blow hot-and-cold far too often for my liking. However, on a level playing surface, Sedan-Ardennes are far too good for Istres, much moreso than the table suggests. Odds of 4/5 don’t reflect the superiority of Sedan over Istres so I think they’re worth taking tonight.
Verdict: Sedan-Ardennes to win at 4/5.
St Patrick’s Athletic vs Sporting Fingal – home win at 11/10.
St Patrick’s Athletic had a poor campaign last season and were very nearly relegated as a result. However, with some of the bigger clubs plunging into financial meltdown and the likes of Cork City and Derry City being relegated as a result, St Pat’s are now back at the front of the line along with last season’s surprise package Shamrock Rovers and giants Bohemians. However, it’s St Pat’s that have started the better out of the three title contenders with three wins and one draw in their first four Premier League games and are yet to concede a goal. St Pat’s have scored five goals during their two consecutive home wins and have also won at last season’s runners-up Shamrock Rovers so tonight’s hosts are on a real momentum boost and are playing good football as a result.
Sporting Fingal have played well following promotion and have only lost once during four games. They’re scoring goals freely, which is encouraging to see, but they’re also defending poorly and have conceded in every game they’ve played in so far this season as a result, which will hamstring them sooner or later. They’ve beaten some poor sides but their one encounter with a good side saw them lose 1-0 at Bohemians on the opening day of the season. Although Sporting Fingal are scoring goals for fun and playing some decent attacking football, there are some sides that they’re not good enough to play against and this is one of them.
Despite a surprising season last year for St Pat’s, such long odds on this game for them surprise me as I feel they should be at least 4/7 to win this game. There look to be good value in a reliable St Pat’s side here tonight for some inane reason so the home win is certainly a recommended bet tonight.
Verdict: St Patrick’s Athletic to win at 11/10.
Empoli vs Lecce – home win at 11/8.
Hosts Empoli remain one of the best home sides in Serie B with eleven wins in fifteen games. They average scoring over two goals per home game, concede less than a goal per home game, and are the only side in Serie B yet to lose a home game. Their form is currently as sporadic as it has been all season due to their excellent home form and poor away form so this is nothing new! Lately, however, Empoli appear to have reached another dimension with their outstanding home form as they’ve notched up twelve goals in their last four home games – an average of three goals scored per home game. They’ve played some good sides along the way too so it’d take a braver man than me to go against this massively potent Empoli side currently.
Visitors Lecce have been up and down like a yo-yo of late with some outlandish results and yet some good results too. They’ve won their last three games consecutively so bring some good momentum into this game. Lecce have only lost four out of sixteen away games in Serie B this season and are the biggest goalscorers in the division away from home so they will not make this game easy for Empoli at all. Lecce have won their last two away games consecutively but I can’t help feeling that this run is masking their actual performances. Lecce have actually been conceding heavily of late with the total number of goals conceded now reaching eight goals in four games, conceding in both away games despite playing sides battling relegation. You have to wonder how Lecce are going to approach a game against a very good Empoli side on their own turf, particularly after the last “difficult” side that Lecce played was Cittadella at home where the visitors won a remarkable 5-1.
Although Lecce are a very good side, they’ve not been as convincing as normal of late and are conceding goals way too easily so I think they’ll struggle tonight against a very strong Empoli side. The hosts have been phenomenal at home this season and they’ve gone into turbo-Empoli of late at home with goalscoring so I do feel that the home win has value tonight.
Verdict: Empoli to win at 11/8.
Accumulator fodder:
Salzburg, Aalborg BK, West Bromwich Albion, Brescia, Torino, Den Bosch, Zwolle, Helmond Sport, CD Nacional, Sporting Clube de Lisboa, Steaua Bucharest, Dinamo Bucharest.
Recommended bets:
Salzburg, CD Nacional, Torino, and Norwich City at 6/1.
Zwolle, West Bromwich Albion, Helmond Sport, and Sedan-Ardennes at 6/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Huracan vs Colon de Santa Fe (6) 1-1
Atletico Tucuman vs Racing Club Avellaneda (7) 1-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Salzburg vs SV Mattersburg (9) -1.75 handicap
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Mons vs KVSK United (6) under 2.5 goals
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (7) 1-0
Croatian Prva Liga:
NK Zagreb vs Hajduk Split (6) 0-1
Inter Zapresic vs Medimurje (5) 2-1
Danish Superligaen:
Aalborg BK vs SonderjyskE (7) 1-0
English Championship:
Scunthorpe United vs Blackpool (5) over 2.5 goals
West Bromwich Albion vs Leicester City (8)
English League One:
Carlisle United vs Bristol Rovers (4)
Exeter City vs Colchester United (5) under 2.5 goals
Millwall vs Brentford (4)
Tranmere Rovers vs Norwich City (8)
English League Two:
Morecambe vs Crewe Alexandra (7)
Grimsby Town vs Northampton Town (4)
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Bastia (5)
Chateauroux vs Dijon FCO (6)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Istres (7)
Guingamp vs Laval (7)
Clermont Foot vs Tours (6)
Angers SCO vs Vannes OC (6)
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Brest (6) under 2.5 goals
Nantes vs Le Havre (4)
Arles vs Nimes (6)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Nyiregyhaza Spartacus vs Debreceni VSC (6) 1-2
Irish Premier League:
St Patrick’s Athletic vs Sporting Fingal (7) 1-0
Drogheda United vs Sligo Rovers (6) 1-1
Galway United vs Dundalk (4) 0-1
Shamrock Rovers vs UCD (5) 0-0
Italian Serie B:
Gallipoli vs Albinoleffe (6)
Cesena vs Ancona (5)
Padova vs Cittadella (4) under 2.5 goals
Piacenza vs Crotone (6)
Sassuolo vs Frosinone (7)
Ascoli vs Grosseto (6)
Empoli vs Lecce (6) over 2.5 goals
Brescia vs Mantova (7)
Vicenza vs Modena (6)
Salernitana vs Reggina (7)
Torino vs Triestina (8)
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Veendam vs Excelsior (6) over 2.5 goals
Den Bosch vs Emmen (8)
Omniworld vs Dordrecht ’90 (6)
Volendam vs Eindhoven (6)
Zwolle vs Oss (8)
Helmond Sport vs Telstar (8)
MVV Maastricht vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (6) over 2.5 goals
RBC Roosendaal vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (6)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes (4) 1-1
CD Nacional vs Leixoes (8) 1-0
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Rio Ave (8) 2-0
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Trofense vs Beira-Mar (5)
Romanian Liga:
Otelul Galati vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (7) 1-0
Astra Ploiesti vs Unirea Urziceni (6) 0-1
Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt vs Politehnica Iasi (7) 1-1
Steaua Bucharest vs Brasov (8) 2-1
Dinamo Bucharest vs Gaz Metan Medias (8) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Balestier Khalsa (5) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Numancia vs Levante (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Ankaragucu vs Besiktas JK (6) 0-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Karpaty Lviv vs Chernomorets Odessa (7) 2-1
Welsh Premier League:
Rhyl vs The New Saints (5) 1-1
Bala Town vs Prestatyn Town (5) 1-0
Llanelli vs Haverfordwest County (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!