VFL Bochum vs VFB Stuttgart
FreeToday’s featured game is the Bundesliga game between VFL Bochum and VFB Stuttgart. Hosts Bochum are battling against relegation but not particularly well with relegation looking more likely with each passing game. Stuttgart, however, have been a revelation since the winter break and are now looking to claim an unexpected place in the UEFA Europa League next season.
Bochum enter this game on level points with SC Freiburg, a side currently set for a relegation play-off place, and are just five points clear of bottom place. With three games remaining, it goes without saying that they need points. They’ve already been atrocious at home this season with seven defeats in fifteen games, a run including just two wins, so imagine the consequences of Bochum actually attacking a side! They already average conceding twice per game at home but attacking a side will leave their weak defence more exposed than ever so I expect them to be badly hurt tonight. Bochum are showing little to no desire to avoid relegation with no wins in their past nine games, losing seven times along the way. They’re not doing terribly defensively but their composure is shocking – they just can’t hold a lead. Three out of their last four defeats have been by a solitary goal and they’ve lead in two of those games. They even equalised in the third of those games but again threw it away. You get the impression that Bochum aren’t far away from being the presentable force that they used to be some years ago but there’s a real lack of confidence in this side and they have real issues with composure. Bochum aren’t struggling to score but with almost every opponent they face currently outscoring them, they’re not going to win many games at all.
VFB Stuttgart are the form side in the Bundesliga right now. They’ve won five consecutive games including games at home to Bayer 04 Leverkusen and away to Bayern Munich so they’re not simply overcoming poor sides – they’re beating big sides too. Unlike tonight’s opponents Bochum, Stuttgart are the side that are coming from behind and being a general nuisance to sides by outscoring each side in all of their last four games by a solitary goal. Luck is clearly on Stuttgart’s side but they’ve earned it with dogged tenacity and a potent attack. There’s an awful lot going Stuttgart’s way at the moment and we all know how good they are so they’re currently a very dangerous side. They’re highly-motivated as they want to be playing European football next season and their momentum has given them a tremendous boost so I expect another convincing display from them tonight.
This game is not only a clash of quality or Bundesliga aims; it’s a clash of momentum and luck too. Bochum lack luck, confidence, and momentum – three things Stuttgart have in abundance right now. Given that Stuttgart are head-and-shoulders above a lowly, demoralised Bochum, it’s hard to see anything but a good value away win tonight at 4/5.
Verdict: VFB Stuttgart to win at 4/5.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna – home win at 9/10.
This is the make-or-break game of the Austrian Bundesliga tonight with the two giants locking horns. Salzburg are walking the league at the moment and a win tonight would all but see them clinch the title yet again. A win for Rapid would open up the title but that means that they need to attack Salzburg tonight, which is never a good idea away from home.
Salzburg have already won twelve out of fifteen games at home in the Bundesliga and are the only side in the division yet to lose a home game. They average scoring over two goals per home game and concede nearly one goal per every two home games. They’re a strong footballing machine and have been for many years in Austria, which shows why they’ve won so many titles of late. They’ve not conceded a goal in their last four games and have won five out of their last six games so momentum and confidence is strong in the Salzburg camp.
Rapid Vienna often fail to convince away from home. They’ve only lost three away games in the Bundesliga this season but consider that they’ve only won 1/3 of their away games and you’ll see what I mean. Rapid unfortunately don’t have the luxury of the choice in this game as to whether they want to attack Salzburg or not; they have to to have any chance of the title. They’ve won three out of their last four games so they do bring momentum into this encounter but it’s their sporadic away form that leaves me utterly convinced that they’ll buckle under the pressure tonight, something evident from their meager defeat at lowly Austria Karnten in the OFB Siegl Cup a couple of weeks ago. Rapid have a tendency to concede more goals than they should and that’s generally catastrophic against Salzburg, something I expect to see tonight.
Rapid have lost two out of their last three visits here, drawing the other game. They lost at home to Salzburg earlier this season and haven’t even scored against Salzburg in their last two meetings so I think they’ll struggle to win this one tonight although they know they need to. It may take some time but Rapid will have to gradually push out in this game and I expect them to get caught fatally on the counter-attack. Salzburg are a tad better than Rapid and the odds reflect that although not quite as much as they should, hence the value. Rapid have to win this and Salzburg don’t so I expect the pressure to be on Rapid, something they don’t deal with well, particularly on the road. Although I’d prefer to see generous odds of evens on this outcome, 9/10 is still value on the home win in my book as the odds should be somewhere around 8/13 or 4/6 given that Salzburg are quite a way better than Rapid this year.
Verdict: Salzburg to win at 9/10.
Austria Vienna II vs Wacker Innsbruck – away win at 3/4.
There aren’t many sides in the Liga 1 that have a significant quality advantage but Wacker Innsbruck are one of them with SCR Altach being the other. This is proven by their away record this season which shows six wins in twelve games. Not particularly impressive when compared to the bigger sides of other divisions, perhaps, but it’s 50% of their away games and the majority of sides in this division barely manage to hit 35% of away wins so it is quite a significant difference. It aids my bet that Wacker are playing well with five wins in their past six games and average scoring nearly two goals per away game. The only side to beat them during this run has been title rivals SCR Altach so it takes a lot to stop Wacker. Wacker are pushing for promotion and need all the points they can get and have the momentum to take three points tonight. Austria Vienna are a decent home side, like most sides in this division, but there’s nothing particularly special about them that should be able to prevent Wacker from winning this one. Austria Vienna II lost their last home game against Gratkorn, a result which is sure to have hurt them and also pushed them a tad closer to relegation so confidence has taken a knock and morale is lessened. That’s enough for me to go against this leaky Austria Vienna II side and Wacker have more than enough in their arsenal to see the job done tonight. 3/4 is a bit short but there’s still value there given the quality difference.
Verdict: Wacker Innsbruck to win at 3/4.
Partizan Minsk vs Dinamo Minsk – away win at 11/8.
Neither of these two sides have made good starts to their respective Vysshaya Liga campaigns but Partizan Minsk have been the worst side in the division so far with four defeats in four games and are still yet to register a goal. It’s amazing how an influx of money can destroy a club sometimes, isn’t it? They’re nowhere near what they were and don’t have anywhere near enough momentum to tackle their more illustrious neighbours today. Dinamo Minsk have only won two out of their four games themselves this season but they’re strong defensively, which leads me to believe that a goal-shy Partizan won’t score in this game. The big question is whether Dinamo will score or not. They were a little unconvincing on the road last season because they didn’t score enough goals which is why they drew so many away games as their defence was strong. They’re in a similar predicament now so I can see why the bookies have priced the game as they have. However, the odds look generous to me as Dinamo are the superior side and are at least looking competent; Partizan are looking anything but competent currently. Dinamo dominate the head-to-head encounters between these two sides with four consecutive wins against Partizan, two at either ground, and haven’t conceded in any of those games. Dinamo Minsk are too good for Partizan and I personally feel it’s worth taking them to score (and thus win the game) at 11/8 as I don’t see Partizan turning up.
Verdict: Dinamo Minsk to win at 11/8.
Kortrijk vs Club Brugge – away win at 4/5.
Kortrijk are generally strong at home but there are a few sides in this league that are somewhat immune to Kortrijk’s home strength and Club Brugge are one of those sides as they’ve proven by winning here for two seasons running. Both sides have been poor in recent times with no wins for either side in their last two games so I’m not expecting a great encounter. I expect a scrappy game but I simply feel Club Brugge are too good to be priced at 4/5 for this irrespective of how they’ve played lately – they’re still too good for Kortrijk. Kortrijk definitely won’t make this easy for the giants but the visitors should be able to make it count tonight due to the quality available at their disposal. Kortrijk don’t score enough goals to trouble the likes of Club Brugge so the visitors should be able to secure an away win tonight at good odds of 4/5 although caution is recommended as both sides are struggling for form at the moment.
Verdict: Club Brugge to win at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Austria Lustenau, Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota, NK Zagreb, Kaiserslautern, St.Pauli, Debreceni VSC, FK Ventspils, Skonto Riga, De Graafschap, Zwolle, Cambuur Leeuwarden.
Recommended bets:
VFB Stuttgart, De Graafschap, Zwolle, and St.Pauli at 6/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre (6) 1-0
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Chacarita Juniors (7) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna (7) 2-1
Austrian Liga 1:
Admira Wacker vs Lustenau (6)
Austria Vienna II vs Wacker Innsbruck (7)
Austria Lustenau vs Gratkorn (8)
Dornbirn vs Salzburg II (4) over 2.5 goals
First Vienna vs Hartberg (6) over 2.5 goals
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Partizan Minsk vs Dinamo Minsk (6) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Kortrijk vs Club Brugge (6) 1-2
Colombian Primera A:
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Cucuta Deportivo (8) 2-0
Croatian Prva Liga:
NK Zagreb vs Medimurje (8) 1-0
Inter Zapresic vs Slaven Koprivnica (5) 1-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Tampere United vs JJK Jyvaskyla (4) 0-1
French Ligue 2:
Laval vs AC Ajaccio (5)
Istres vs Brest (6) under 2.5 goals
Guingamp vs Chateauroux (6)
Dijon FCO vs Clermont Foot (7) both sides to score
Nantes vs Sedan-Ardennes (5)
Bastia vs Strasbourg (4)
Tours vs Vannes OC (6)
Nimes vs Angers SCO (5)
Metz vs Arles (3)
German Bundesliga:
VFL Bochum vs VFB Stuttgart (8) 1-2
German Bundesliga 2:
Karlsruher SC vs Rot-Weiss Ahlen (7)
Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock (8) under 2.5 goals
St.Pauli vs Koblenz (8) over 2.5 goals
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Debreceni VSC vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (9) 3-1
Irish Premier League:
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Sligo Rovers (6) 1-0
Dundalk vs Bohemians (7) 1-1
Galway United vs Drogheda United (5) under 2.5 goals
Shamrock Rovers vs Bray Wanderers (7) 2-0
Italian Serie B:
Cesena vs Empoli (4)
Latvian Virsliga:
Tranzits Ventspils vs FK Ventspils (8) 0-1
RFS/Olimps Riga vs Skonto Riga (8) 0-2
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs Atlante (5) 2-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Veendam vs Go Ahead Eagles (4)
De Graafschap vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (8) over 2.5 goals
Dordrecht ’90 vs Volendam (5)
Omniworld vs Excelsior (5)
Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard (8)
Helmond Sport vs Emmen (7)
MVV Maastricht vs Oss (7)
RBC Roosendaal vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (8)
Telstar vs Eindhoven (6)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Arka Gdynia vs Korona Kielce (4) 1-0
Legia Warsaw vs Piast Gliwice (7) 2-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Rio Ave vs Maritimo Funchal (6) 1-1
Romanian Liga:
Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt vs Astra Ploiesti (5) 2-1
Dinamo Bucharest vs Politehnica Iasi (7) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Armed Forces (4) 1-2
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (6)
Ukrainian Premier League:
Arsenal Kiev vs Illichivets Mariupol (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!