VFL Wolfsburg vs Rubin Kazan
FreeAgain – not going near the Europa League where I can help it tonight. I quite fancy Juventus to steal a win at Fulham even though they don’t need to and Standard to overcome Panathinaikos even though they don’t have to but there’s not enough to substantiate it in my book.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game between VFL Wolfsburg and Rubin Kazan. Yep, it’s the exact same one as I predicted last week although hopefully more accurate this time! Wolfsburg lead the tie on away goals following a 1-1 draw in Russia and should be able to finish off the Russian champions tonight.
Wolfsburg have been in inspired form since appointing a new manager and appear dead set on making up on all the goals that they’ve missed out during a disappointing campaign. Wolfsburg have now notched up fourteen goals in their last five games in all competitions – an average of nearly three per game – whilst winning four times and drawing once. Wolfsburg flattened Spain’s Villarreal 4-1 in their last UEFA Europa League home game to emphasise just what they can do on their day. Wolfsburg have played well in all of their games of late and bring great momentum into this game as a result. I was highly impressed to see them draw in Russia, which is a tough away game for any side, so I think they’ll be able to use their momentum to finish off the Russian champions tonight.
Rubin Kazan are sound tactically but lack in goals, something they’re going to need tonight. Rubin will cause Wolfsburg problems but I can’t see them having the firepower to do significant damage in Germany tonight. Aside from their shock win at the Nou Camp against Barcelona, Rubin Kazan have disappointed on the road with emphatic defeats against Internazionale and Dynamo Kiev in the UEFA Champions League before drawing 0-0 in Israel with Hapoel Tel-Aviv. It’s well-known that Russian sides don’t travel well and this Russian side hinges their success upon their tactical supremacy, something they may be forced to abandon tonight if goals aren’t going their way as they have to score at least one tonight – probably more if you consider Wolfsburg’s high level of potency currently!
I think the bookies have under-priced Wolfsburg a little although this is the Europa League so frankly nothing would surprise me really! However, Wolfsburg are scoring a lot of goals and Rubin Kazan don’t score a lot of goals as a rule anyway so the Germans edge the potency front. I don’t like going against Rubin Kazan unless they have to attack as that brings them out of their defensive mentality and makes them vulnerable. With the proviso that the Russians don’t get an early goal in Germany tonight, Wolfsburg should win this one with some ease
Verdict: VFL Wolfsburg to win at 4/5.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Unirea Urziceni vs Otelul Galati – lay Unirea Urziceni at 5/4.
I can’t quite fathom why the bookies are giving 8/15 on a home win in this game. That’s what has awakened my interest, really! Unirea Urziceni may be the current champions of Romania but they’ve rarely played like it this season and are yet to win a game following their return from the winter break. The four games that they’ve played domestically since their return have been difficult ones, that I will say, but they’ve lost once and drawn three times so confidence is far from peaking at the moment. They’ve lost at home to CFR Cluj and drawn at home to Steaua Bucharest during that time so I think it’s a fair observation to make that Unirea Urziceni are not performing at their full potential and they’re not scoring enough goals as a result.
Otelul Galati are traditionally a home side but have been excellent since returning from the winter break. Prior to their last match, Otelul Galati won three consecutive games without conceding a goal despite facing CFR Cluj along the way. Otelul Galati won twice at home and once on the road so their strength as increased in both aspects, something that is worth nothing. Otelul Galati are not a prolific side but they can be very good at keeping sides out. They travelled to an in-form Steaua Bucharest last match and were only beaten 1-0 so I’ve got good faith in them to do the job on Unirea tonight, who are not in-form at all.
Although there’s obvious doubts and the underlying issue that Unirea are the better of these two sides, an Otelul side that aren’t conceding goals travelling to an out-of-form Unirea tells me that this game has a decent chance of being a draw. Unirea are playing poorly enough to draw this and the value has to be in laying them as I feel that bookies have over-priced the reigning champions slightly here.
Verdict: Lay Unirea Urziceni at 5/4.
Cerro vs Internacional – away win in-play
This is the first time I’ve recommended a bet of this type and it might sound fairly obvious but I feel there’s potentially a lot of value in this game. The bookies have put Internacional at 8/11, unfortunately, and there’s no way on earth I’m backing them at those odds – they’re away from home for fuck’s sake! However, Cerro are not a particularly good side – they’re too defensive by far. Uruguay holds little to no geographical advantage over Brazil so the two sides are level-pegging in that aspect. The game is being played at a neutral venue so there’s no home advantage there either. In other words, Cerro will have to be very lucky to take anything from this game against a superior Internacional side. The result isn’t in doubt in my mind – it’s just when the visitors do it. With Cerro being a defensive side, I expect them to refrain from conceding an early goal. I also expect them to end the game with less than eleven men because that’s what Uruguayan sides tend to enjoy doing for some inane reason. My recommendation is purely that if you can watch this game then do so because of Internacional’s odds fall to 4/5 or even fall to evens (if you wait long enough) then they’re definitely worth taking. I will not be touching them at 8/11 though!
Accumulator fodder:
FC Poli Timisoara, Internacional, Sao Paulo, Rapid Bucharest
Recommended bets:
FC Poli Timisoara, VFL Wolfsburg, Liverpool, and Rapid Bucharest at 5/1.
Internacional, Sao Paulo, and Independiente Medellin at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
Olympique de Marseille vs SL Benfica (6) 2-1
Standard de Liege vs Panathinaikos (6) under 2.5 goals
Fulham vs Juventus (4) 0-1
Werder Bremen vs Valencia (6) over 2.5 goals
Anderlecht vs Hamburger SV (6) 1-1
VFL Wolfsburg vs Rubin Kazan (8) over 2.5 goals
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Atletico Madrid (5) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Liverpool vs LOSC Lille (7) under 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
Cerro vs Internacional (8) 0-2
Sao Paulo vs Nacional Asuncion (9) -1.75 handicap
Independiente Medellin vs Racing Club Montevideo (7) 1-0
Romanian Liga:
FC Poli Timisoara vs Unirea Alba Iulia (8) under 2.5 goals
Politehnica Iasi vs Vaslui (5) 1-0 draw no bet
Unirea Urziceni vs Otelul Galati (5) 0-0
Rapid Bucharest vs Astra Ploiesti (9) -1.75 handicap
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands Wellington vs Sengkang Punggol (4) 1-1
Gombak United vs Armed Forces (5) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips