Vlasim vs Zlin
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Today’s free tip is in the Czech Cup game between Vlasim and Zlin.
Zlin are naturally the favourites to win this game and I can just about understand that. After all, they’re the reigning champions, and they do play in the division above Vlasim. However, I don’t agree with the odds that the bookies have provided for the away win. I think Zlin are too short, basically. It’s almost as if the bookies have heralded them as potential winners of this competition once more, which I think is a laughable concept. They worked miracles to win it last year but let’s face it – Slavia Prague gave it to them by not showing up when it mattered the most. They were awful!
I’ll give Zlin all the credit that the deserve for winning the Cup when they had no right to do so. It was handed to them, however, not that they care. Now, the knock-on effect of them having won the Cup is that they’re competing in the UEFA Europa League this season. To be fair, they’re giving a reasonable account of themselves in a competition that is played at a level far beyond them. The problem that they’ve got, though, is that they’re not equipped to compete on two fronts. That’s why their approach and domestic form are both suffering. They simply don’t have the personnel to manage both competitions, which is why they’re not exactly setting either alight with what they’re doing. I don’t honestly believe that they could do more than they are right now but the simple fact of the matter is that they’re a small team with a small budget. They can’t afford more nor better players than what they have.
Now, the above is only comparing Zlin’s two main competitions, which are the Czech Republic Liga 1 and the UEFA Europa League. Today’s game is in the Czech Cup, which adds a third competition to an already congested fixture. Last season, the Czech Cup was a welcome distraction for Zlin. I’d go as far as to say it was their focus. This season, it’s little more than a nuisance to them because they cannot win it again and they do not have the time to play in it. Now, I’m not suggesting that they’re going to throw the game against Vlasim because they don’t want to be in it; that’s simply not Zlin’s style. They’re a very passionate and determined team; that’s mostly how they won the competition last season. However, what I am suggesting is that them exiting it would not be terrible news for the club. Indeed, I think it would help them. Playing a game every three days is already too much for them. Their starting eleven are reasonable nowadays; their “B” team is not good enough to play in the division below. This is Zlin’s third game in six days; the previous two were against vastly superior teams, namely FC Copenhagen and Mlada Boleslav respectively. They’ve got a horrible away game against Bohemians 1905 in a few days time. Are they really going to field their strongest eleven here? I’d be astounded to see it, and I genuinely don’t believe their “B” team are good enough to win this match.
Vlasim themselves are nothing special but they managed a heroic result at Bohemians 1905 in the last round. That was a game I thought they had no chance in whatsoever, particularly when factoring in how strong Bohemians 1905 always are at home. Vlasim were excellent, though, and won the game on penalties after a 2-2 draw. Since then, they’ve had a bit of a sugar rush in terms of their playing style. They’ve been playing with a lot of confidence and attacking more freely than usual with mixed results. What generally happens is that they score goals but also concede them so backing them to specifically win or lose a game is generally fraught with danger. However, in a big game against the reigning champions, I think they’ll be just a tad smarter and not go gung-ho against them. They know that Zlin will either be tired here or massively under-strength so a patient game is required. Vlasim can do that; they proved it against Bohemians 1905. If they play intelligently here, I really don’t see why they’d lost in ninety minutes.
To me, there’s value in laying Zlin today.
Verdict: Vlasim to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 53/50.
Wednesday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Copa Libertadores:
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Gremio
Copa Sudamericana:
Nacional Asuncion vs Independiente
Fluminense vs Flamengo
Austrian Cup:
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach
Wimpassing vs Wolfsberger AC
Bad Gleichenberg vs Salzburg
Austria Klagenfurt vs Wacker Innsbruck
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
RSC Anderlecht vs Zulte-Waregem
Racing Genk vs Club Brugge
Waasland-Beveren vs Kortrijk
Bulgarian Cup:
Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Montana vs Levski Sofia
Croatian Cup:
NK Zagreb vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
Zadar vs NK Osijek
Inter Zapresic vs Sesvete
Sibenik vs Hajduk Split
Czech Republic Cup:
Jiskra Domazlice vs Mlada Boleslav
Vlasim vs Zlin
Sparta Prague vs Banik Ostrava
Vysocina Jihlava vs Slavia Prague
Danish DBU Pokalen:
Jammerbugt vs SonderjyskE
OB Odense vs FC Midtjylland
English League Cup:
Chelsea vs Everton
Tottenham Hotspur vs West Ham United
French Coupe de la Ligue:
Lille OSC vs Valenciennes
Troyes vs Amiens SC
Angers SCO vs AS Nancy-Lorraine
Racing Club Strasbourg vs AS Saint-Etienne
Dijon FCO vs Stade Rennais
Metz vs Red Star 93
Toulouse vs Clermont Foot
Tours vs Nantes Atlantique
German DFB Pokal:
Hertha Berlin vs Koln
VfL Wolfsburg vs Hannover 96
Kaiserslautern vs VfB Stuttgart
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
SC Freiburg vs Dynamo Dresden
RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo vs Hellas Verona
Bologna vs SS Lazio
Cagliari vs Benevento
Chievo Verona vs AC Milan
AC Fiorentina vs Torino
Genoa vs SSC Napoli
Juventus vs SPAL
AS Roma vs Crotone
Sassuolo vs Udinese
Dutch KNVB Beker:
Heracles Almelo vs HSV Hoek
VVV Venlo vs FC Utrecht
De Dijk vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam
Willem II vs Heerenveen
Roda JC Kerkrade vs Groningen
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Swift
Portuguese Segunda Liga:
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Sporting Clube de Portugal II
Russian Cup:
SKA Khabarovsk vs Dinamo St.Petersburg
FK Rostov vs Amkar Perm’
Spartak Moscow vs Spartak Nal’chik
Rubin Kazan’ vs Krylya Sovetov Samara
Tosno vs Tom’ Tomsk
Spanish Copa del Rey:
Formentera vs Athletic Club de Bilbao
Ponferradina vs Villarreal CF
Real Valladolid vs Leganes
Elche vs Atletico Madrid
Eibar vs Celta de Vigo
Swiss Schweizer Pokal:
Stade Nyonnais vs Thun
Munsingen vs Young Boys Bern
Rapperswil-Jona vs FC Basel
Lausanne Sport vs Grasshopper Zurich
Enjoy your free betting tips!