Granada vs Athletic Club de Bilbao
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Primera Liga game in Andaluscia between Granada and Athletic Club de Bilbao.
I’ve got a growing amount of respect for little Granada, you know. They do play some good football from time to time and aren’t to be written off for that reason. They’re not the most well-equipped of sides when we talk about quality but their understanding is good and they are capable of upsetting the odds. They’re in the middle of the relegation battle so every point is vital and this is a winnable game for Granada, to be fair. They’re not the better side but they’re facing a tired side that is notoriously weaker on the road than they are at home so I fancy Granada to perhaps cause an upset here, especially with Athletic’s focus lying elsewhere right now. Granada have gone over 2.5 goals in three out of their last five games and although it’s not their preferred method of doing things, they will compete in a game if forced to. Granada’s games go over 2.5 goals when their opponents take the initiative and attack them, essentially, and that’s what I expect here.
Irrespective of whether this game is at the front of Athletic’s thoughts or not, they will still show up here. They’ll show up and attack because that’s what they always do under Bielsa. There’s tremendous belief from every player in the Basque club’s ranks and the desire to win each game is more than apparent. Their big problem is their inability to keep a clean sheet of their own making. They can obtain clean sheets, of course, but it’ll always be down to their opponents not taking their chances – that’s the way it always goes. In attack, though, they’re just unplayable at times. They’re not as good as Barcelona yet but they certainly play like them and it’d be daft to not look at it that way, in my eyes. Athletic have a youthful squad and a lot to learn but Bielsa is a great manager and he is improving the players at the club with their awareness and their tenacity. For those reasons, despite Athletic being tired, I simply cannot rule out them potentially getting a result against their inferior hosts.
Summarised, I cannot encourage you enough to avoid betting on the 1×2 side of this game because nothing would surprise me. However, I expect Athletic to take the initiative and attack and thus they should both score and concede. After that, both sides could do with the points so we should see a winner at some point. I expect a few cards but goals are the name of the game for this one tonight so over 2.5 goals suits me just fine at 5/6, especially with six out of Athletic’s last seven Primera Liga away games having gone over 2.5 goals with the only exception being the game with Barcelona where they rested players!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
Manchester City vs West Bromwich Albion – away win with +1.5 handicap at evens.
City have effectively thrown away the Premier League title and everyone knows it. Typically, this has one of two effects – either the side in question will feel relieved of the pressure and will bounce back with an emphatic win or they’ll crawl into a hole and feel sorry for themselves, depending on the cohesion and determination of the team. Call me biased if you want but the City I envision is a side that has no cohesion whatsoever and no team spirit and thus I expect them to crawl into a hole.
I mean, what is their motivation to win this game? Typically, your manager is supposed to come out with comments that are shrewd and supportive, perhaps even unsettling your opponents. Mancini has just made himself look like a moron, though, commenting that United wouldn’t win at Blackburn and how the title race would be over if City lost at Arsenal! The pressure that puts on your players is massive and the last thing a thin and tired City squad needed at that point was more pressure. Poor David Silva is absolutely knackered as he’s carried this team for the season so City’s creativity is effectively halved in my estimation. Additionally, Balotelli is suspended, which means that they’ll have to field either mercenary Tevez, the talented-but-only-when-Silva-plays Aguero, or lumbering Dzeko. There’s enough there to score but to break down a solid WBA side with no motivation and little momentum? It’s a tall order when your side is playing well so why City would do it now, I don’t know.
City could surprise us here by battering WBA. Let’s face it – they absolutely have the players to do it. However, in my eyes, their season is over and their body language shows it. I think they’re in for a long, hard game against a well-organised WBA side that have done well away from home all season long. If City win the game then I don’t see there being much in it so for me, there’s value on giving WBA a +1.5 handicap at evens.
Verdict: West Bromwich Albion to win with a +1.5 handicap at evens.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa Libertadores:
Guadalajara vs Velez Sarsfield (4) 0-1
Nacional Asuncion vs Corinthians (5) 0-1
Fluminense vs Boca Juniors (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AA Gent vs Anderlecht (5) 1-1
Racing Genk vs Kortrijk (7) 2-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Istra 1961 vs Rijeka (5) 1-0
English Premier League:
Manchester City vs West Bromwich Albion (5) 2-1
Wigan Athletic vs Manchester United (8) 0-2
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Arsenal (8) over 2.5 goals
Queens Park Rangers vs Swansea City (6) 1-1
French Ligue 1:
Olympique de Marseille vs Montpellier HSC (6) 1-1
German Bundesliga:
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Kaiserslautern (7) 2-0
Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg (5) 2-2
Nurnberg vs Schalke 04 (6) 0-1
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV (6) 1-0
Italian Serie A:
SSC Napoli vs Atalanta Bergamo (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Genoa vs Cesena (7) 2-1
Juventus vs Lazio (7) 2-0
Catania vs Lecce (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Parma vs Novara (7) 2-0
Fiorentina vs Palermo (6) 1-0
Internazionale vs Siena (6) 2-1
AS Roma vs Udinese (4) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente Enschede (4) 0-1
NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo (5) 2-1
Roda JC Kerkrade vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (6) 2-2
RKC Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven (6) 1-1
Heerenveen vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (5) 2-2
Spanish Primera Liga:
Granada vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (6) 2-1
Sporting Gijon vs Levante (6) 1-1
Valencia CF vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (4) 1-2
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Orebro vs Helsingborg (7) 1-2
GAIS Goteborg vs Djurgarden (5) 0-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Wohlen vs Winterthur (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!