West Bromwich Albion vs Manchester United
FreeHappy New Year, guys and girls! I hope that it’s a prosperous one for all of you!
The first post of this year has to be a thankful one. This site has become very popular indeed over the past year or so and I hope it’ll continue to be as popular in the future. There may be changes on the horizon in the near future on this site but you’ll all be advised and/or consulted beforehand so fear not! Nonetheless, my thanks goes to you all for your continued support and especially to those who have been with us for a long time and who help us tirelessly behind the scenes – it’s very much appreciated! And hell, whilst we’re on it – let’s thank the English leagues for being too stingy to have a winter break because although it’s a betting minefield most of the time, we’d all be pretty fucking bored without it so hats off to English football!
Today’s featured game is the early kick-off in the Premier League between West Bromwich Albion and Manchester United. This is Manchester United’s second venture to the Midlands in a matter of days following their draw against Birmingham earlier this week and it’s only their second encounter in a trio of games against Midlands-based sides with a home game against Stoke City looming large next week. Ironically, this is WBA’s third game against a side from the north-west with defeats at Bolton Wanderers and at home against Blackburn Rovers leading them into this game so they’ll no doubt be a little unwelcoming for the Premier League giants today!
I have a lot of faith in West Bromwich Albion on a personal level whilst they have Roberto Di Matteo at the helm as he’s a talented manager; he gets his team to play what I call “proper football”, which means they attack and score goals. On a quality basis, I’d place WBA just outside of the drop zone in the Premier League and I daresay that’s probably where they’ll end up. However, I’d attribute that to their defending more than anything as their attacking tends to be rather dangerous. Despite my kind words for their attack, however, I’m going to bet against it today. Why? Well, numerous reasons, really. WBA are a good attacking side but predominantly on the counter-attack because they often struggle to break down solid sides. Indeed, WBA have lost three out of their last four home games because they’ve struggled to break resilient sides down and yet that’s what they’re up against today. Why else go against WBA today? Well, a good side has its roots in defence and builds from there. WBA are missing a good number of their defence today with Olsson still injured, Tamas and Jara suspended, and Scharner a big doubt. Considering that WBA have shipped nine goals in their last four home games and that they now host one of the best sides in the country, I think it’s fair to observe that they’re going to struggle here. WBA still have the counter-attacking ability that I mentioned earlier with Brunt back in the team to assist Odemwingie and both are dangerous players. However, their opponents have looked solid at the back with Rio Ferdinand firmly integrated back in the United team and if WBA are struggling to score at home against Stoke City and Manchester City respectively then they’re going to struggle to score against arguably the best defensive partnership in the Premier League, hence my call today.
It’s at times like these that I hate statistics, however. I’ve got to somehow convince you all of how well Manchester United are playing at the moment without appearing to be biased whilst United actually have a dismal away record this season with just one win in eight away games, drawing the other seven games. United were fortunate to draw some of those games (i.e. Sunderland, Aston Villa) but were equally unfortunate to draw some of those games (i.e. Everton, Birmingham City) so I think “Lady Luck” is playing “hard to get” at the moment! However, as anyone that has watched Manchester United of late will tell you, the Red Devils are finally getting their arses into gear. They’ve kept three clean sheets in their last five Premier League games with the only exceptions in that list being a 7-1 win against Blackburn Rovers (bad marking from a set piece) and Birmingham City (a goal that was a foul, offside, and handball all at once!!) so I think it’s pretty safe to say that United’s defence is getting back to its best, especially as their list of clean sheets includes games against in-form Arsenal and a very good Sunderland side. Why? Well, Ferdinand being back to his best helps a lot but is also helps to hide just how well Rafael is playing at right-back. I was a little dubious when United first signed him as he has a tendancy to dive into challenges and be caught out but he’s stopped doing that and he’s also stopped making stupid fouls unnecessarily. He’s matured very quickly and he’s played incredibly well in the past month or so, in my humble opinion, hence him starting most games. A settled back four in front of ageless Van der Sar makes United look very strong indeed so props to their defence as that has to be the catalyst behind United’s good displays of late.
United didn’t dominate Birmingham in their last away game as they should have attempted to and I think you could make a claim for Birmingham deserving the draw due to their never-say-die attitude. However, United were rarely out of control in the game and the reason they didn’t put it to bed was a lack of wingplay, in my view. United lost Valencia earlier this season for the majority of the campaign, which has fucked United up in quite a big way, to be honest. Now United heavily rely on Nani for creativity as Park doesn’t play the same type of game, Bebe still has way too much to learn, and Obertan is a bit on the inexperienced side, especially with his passing. Therefore, when United miss Nani, they struggle to create on a consistent basis, which is exactly what happened against Birmingham earlier this week. Nani is a doubt for this game but I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t featured in this game; United need to take advantage of their strong position and Fergie knows it so playing him is vital, especially with Park at the Asian Cup for the next month or so. The dependency on Nani is the reason I’ve avoided the handicap in this game because WBA are missing the players to lose this game convincingly. United can beat the handicap here but with question marks over Nani’s fitness, I’m going to avoid the handicap betting on this game. Plus, let’s not forget that consistently drawing away from home this season certainly puts “a monkey on the back” for Manchester United, which basically means that sometimes it affects players’ mentalities and if that’s the case, United may not push to increase a narrow lead through fear of giving it away as they have so many times this season already.
Nonetheless, United have a very good record at The Hawthorns, winning their last four visits here, two of which were won without conceding a goal, including their most recent visit, which was a 0-5 win back in 2009. WBA claimed a 2-2 draw at Old Trafford earlier this season but I’m being genuine when I say that Manchester United gifted them both goals – I’d be very, very surprised to see those kind of defensive errors committed today. WBA have looked tired lately, hence conceding heavily against a Blackburn side that never travel well. Their defending from set pieces was poor and they were duly punished. WBA are in for another long game against Manchester United today and with the visitors really starting to click following some impressive displays lately, I really fancy United to win this game without conceding as it’s rather generously priced at 7/5, especially as two out of WBA’s three home defeats this season have occurred without WBA scoring, all of which were within their last four home games.
Team news – WBA miss Tamas, Jara, Olsson, and have doubts over Scharner whereas Man Utd miss Hargreaves, O’Shea, Park, Scholes, Valencia, and have doubts over Nani.
Verdict: Manchester United to win to nil at 7/5.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Liverpool vs Bolton Wanderers – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Hosts Liverpool enter this game on the back of an unacceptable 0-1 defeat against Wolverhampton Wanderers at Anfield, a result which was the final straw for many Liverpool supporters as they called for the head of boss Roy Hodgson. Liverpool need results and they need them quickly, to be blunt! So Liverpool are going to have to do what they’ve done for a while now when in times of need – rely on Steven Gerrard to bail them out. He looked a little tired against Wolves mid-week as you’d expect after a lengthy injury but he should be closer to fitness today. When Liverpool don’t play well, he drags them along and he may have to do so again today, especially with star striker Fernando Torres looking out of sorts. Nonetheless, Liverpool do possess one of the best central midfielders and one of the best strikers in the world, let alone in England, so I find it hard to write the hosts off as easily as everyone else seemingly is here, much as I’d love to, being a Manchester United fan!
However, Liverpool are missing Carragher for this game due to his lengthy injury and although I’ve heard numerous Liverpudlians say “he’s not much use nowadays”, I still think his experience is key at this level, especially with Daniel Agger rumoured to be leaving the club in January and Liverpool needing a solid foundation at the back before they can push on and score goals. Carragher’s absence could and should damage Liverpool, especially in games like this as Bolton are not simply going to sit back as they once would have done. Owen Coyle has to look at this game and say to his team “Ok boys, Liverpool’s defence is somewhat shambolic at the moment – their most experienced defender is injury, their right-back can’t defend, and they’re demoralised – let’s get at them!” or something to that effect. Given Coyle’s zesty and buoyant approach to management, I’ve no doubt that he’ll do just that and cause lots of problems with his deadly strike duo of Davies and Elmander ready to give the Anfield faithful another long day.
However, there’s something stopping me from backing Bolton on the handicap here and it’s absentees. Owen Coyle is a damn good manager but he’s not a magician and the fact remains that Bolton are very likely to have a squad of just fifteen players available to them for this game. They’re missing impressive American midfielder Holden, creative winger Lee, captain Robinson, and full-back Steinsson which are notable absentees for their importance to the team as individuals but also at the team’s core due to their respective roles within the team. Therefore, Bolton cannot possibly be at their best here and as Chelsea showed mid-week – Bolton can be beaten. Bolton were very unlucky not to score themselves in that game but I personally feel that the result was just about fair. However, Liverpool simply aren’t as good as Chelsea so I do expect Bolton to score here. After all, Bolton have been notorious for the number of goals that they’ve scored this season and with Liverpool’s defence in disarray, you have to fancy Bolton to attack a lot here.
With defensive absences a-plenty and the visitors scoring goals for fun, however, you have to envision there being plenty of goals here. Five out of Liverpool’s seven home games in the Premier League this season have gone over 2.5 goals so I fancy another over 2.5 goals game from them here. Bolton’s last three away games have all disappointingly ended in 1-0 defeats but with a lot of players missing, I can’t accept the same scoreline occurring here as Bolton should concede at least once and score at least once in this game. With three out of the last four games at Anfield between these two sides going over 2.5 goals and absent players all over the place in this game today, I have to favour over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Team news – Liverpool miss Carragher, Spearing, and have doubts over Cole whereas Bolton miss Robinson, Holden, Steinsson, Chung-Yong Lee, Cohen, David O’Brien, Joey O’Brien, Gardner, and Samuel.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Sunderland vs Blackburn Rovers – home win at 4/5.
Sunderland destroyed most of our bets with their inexplicable 0-2 loss at home to Blackpool in their last game but I’d be wary of simply ruling them out of being backed today purely from that scoreline. I’ve not seen such a one-sided game as the one between Sunderland and Blackpool was for some time, especially when the dominant side lost the game in seemingly convincing fashion. Sunderland had approximately thirty attempts on goal, hitting the woodwork on numerous occasions with Blackpool really riding their luck and oweing keeper Kingston a few pints after the game too! Credit given where it’s due though – Blackpool took a couple of the few chances that went their way but I’d write that game off entirely as a statistic because nothing went as it should have in that game, even leaving Sunderland boss Steve Bruce speechless in hiss post-match interview.
Still, onto pastures new here and I’m going to back Sunderland to win this game today. They’re an extremely good home side and only fortune prevented their last home game from contributing to that ever-growing reputation so I’ll give Sunderland another shot here. It helps that they’re playing Blackburn too because people will most probably read a lot into their recent win at West Bromwich Albion. However, that’s another game I’d write off – Blackburn are a poor away side and scored from West Bromwich Albion defensive errors on all three occasions last match, two of which were virtually identical goals from set pieces. Steve Kean still hasn’t got Blackburn playing as well as they could or should and I think that’ll be exposed here.
Both sides are missing players for this game but you’d have to look at the lists and say that Blackburn’s losses are heftier than those of their hosts. Blackburn’s entire strength is in defence and with Salgado suspended, Andrews, Jones, and N’Zonzi still injured, and Samba a doubt too, Blackburn’s whole defensive game is in real jeopardy here. They’re also missing striker Kalinic through suspension following his absolutely stupid and dangerous lunge last match so Blackburn are really going to have to produce a “Diouf show” or lose the game, in my view. Aside from Sunderland’s long-term absentees, they’ve got doubts over regulars Cattermole, Onuoha, and Gyan although I do think at least two of them will start. Sunderland still have a very strong side and have more depth than Blackburn so they should make their home advantage count in this one.
Blackburn have already lost six out of ten Premier League away games this season and with no other side in the division having conceded as many away goals as they have thus far (an average of over two goals conceded per away game!), it’s hard to see them getting a result in the north-east today, especially having scored just once here over their last three visits to Sunderland. As long as the hosts take their chances today – as they have done for the vast majority of the season – then the home win at 4/5 should be good value.
Team news – Sunderland miss Campbell, Turner, Carson, Mensah, and have doubts over Gyan, Cattermole, and Onuoha whereas Blackburn miss Kalinic, Salgado, Andrews, Grella, Jones, N’Zonzi, and Roberts whilst having doubts over Samba.
Verdict: Sunderland to win at 4/5.
Birmingham City vs Arsenal – both teams to score at 4/5.
Birmingham boss Alex McGleish could be set to start Belarusian international Hleb against his former club today and it’d give the hosts some much-needed creativity if he does. However, he may opt for the tactics that have served them so well during their last four meetings with Arsenal – get tight, physical, and convert the set pieces/crosses. Arsenal simply can’t defend against sides like that, as they demonstrated with a 2-2 draw at defensively-inept Wigan Athletic earlier this week despite facing ten men for the last quarter of the game. Birmingham usually have what it takes to score against Arsenal – the last four meetings between the two clubs have included both sides scoring – so they should be able to here. Birmingham have scored for five consecutive home games, including games against Chelsea and Manchester United (ironically Lee Bowyer bagged both goals against the big clubs!) so they do know how to exploit sides tactically – McGleish has always been very good on that front. Given that Arsenal have only kept one clean sheet in their past nine games in all competitions, I think it’s fair to say that there’s a good chance of them conceding here. They miss Vermaelen a lot in defence, especially from an aerial perspective, and Birmingham will be sure to exploit them in that area – I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nikola Zigic start, in fact! Arsenal welcome back Fabregas to bolster their attacking options but frankly, if I have to convince you of Arsenal’s ability to score goals then you shouldn’t be betting at all as you therefore shouldn’t have enough intelligence to turn on your comptuer in the first place! The absent Diaby also gives Birmingham the opportunity to control the middle of the park with their expected 4-5-1 so I think Birmingham can score here, particularly with winger Seb Larsson keen to show his old club what they’re missing with his spectacular free-kicks. Therefore, my call is for both sides to score here at 4/5.
Team news – Birmingham miss McFadden whereas Arsenal miss Diaby, Almunia, Gibbs, Frimpong, and Vermaelen.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Leeds United vs Middlesbrough – over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
This isn’t what you’d call the usual derby but I view it as one. It’s two big games from a similar region of England and I think there’ll be plenty of passion here, especially as fans of both clubs believe that they both should be in the Premier League, not battling for points in the Championship. As much as it pains me to say it, Leeds have been very good indeed of late, scoring goals for fun against anyone and everyone. Their Achilles heel of not being able to defend is a constant thorn in their side and has cost them points against Portsmouth, Leicester City, and almost against Burnley lately. I’ve been particularly impressed with the way that Grayson has organised his side to compensate for the loss of Beckford by getting midfielders Gredel, Howson, Johnson, and Snodgrass to support Becchio’s usual goal tally and as a result, Leeds have become a very strong unit. I don’t think their defence is good enough to see them promoted just yet but with Grayson at the helm, I think it’s only a matter of time before they are inevitably promoted.
So how are Middlesbrough to deal with the highest-scoring side in the Championship? Well, knowing Tony Mowbray, they’ll undoubtedly go out and attack them! Their last two games have gone over 2.5 goals as they’ve adopted the Mowbray attacking approach and it’s suiting them quite well. Well, it has to, really – they’re not a particularly good defensive side but they do have some good attacking players. Let’s face it – an attack with Boyd, McDonald, and Lita has goals in it from various angles – power, off-the-ball movement, and pace – so Boro should be much more of a threat in the coming weeks and months if they continue their recent decent displays. They have doubts over midfielder Robson ahead of this game and that would be a loss for them if he is unavailable today. Nonetheless, Mowbray will still make his side attack so I think we should see an interesting and open game here, which will hopefully yield a lot of goals!
Leeds miss important defender McCartney as his loan deal has ended, which throws their unreliable defence into the wilderness so they should really concede in this game, especially as they’ve kept just two clean sheets in twelve home games in the Championship this season. Middlesbrough have to join the party today by scoring at least once but they’ve done well in front of goal lately and they do have the firepower so over 2.5 goals really should be a mere formality. Therefore, my call is over 2.5 goals at a decent price of 3/4.
Team news – Leeds miss McCartney whereas Middlesbrough have doubts over the fitness of Robson ahead of this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Norwich City vs Queens Park Rangers – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Norwich miss three key defenders for this game – Barnett, Ward, and Lappin – who are all suspended or injured. Given that only Leeds United have conceded more home goals than they have this season, this spells disaster for The Canaries today! Norwich average conceding over 1.5 goals per home game and even shipped two against Sheffield United in their last away game and they never score away from home! However, Norwich are still fifth in the table despite the above record so you should be able to tell that their offensive record is one of the best in the division with an average of nearly two goals scored per home game. Unfortunately for Norwich, their horrendous defensive record and massive absences at the back today means that they’re going to need to score a lot of goals against high-flying Queens Park Rangers and they’re going to have to play very well to achieve that as QPR are a hard side to face under Warnock.
QPR have a largely full squad to choose from after Clint Hill’s red card was rescinded so they’re going to be as imposing as ever today, no doubt. They’ve got a very good away record this season due to their watertight defence that has shipped just seven goals in eleven games, which is by far the best record in the division. They average scoring approximately 1.5 goals per away games themselves and they need to be at their best to overcome a potent Norwich side today. Happily for the visitors, they’ve shaken off the shackles of some disappointing displays by annihlating Swansea City 4-0 and then winning 0-2 at Coventry City – two tough games, by all accounts – so morale is back in the QPR camp. What I’ve noticed with QPR is that they play well and score goals when starlet Taarabt is playing well as he makes everything happen so I’m praying for him to show up today. If he does, then QPR could not only have a lot of fun with the Norwich defence and win the game but the game should also go over 2.5 goals.
However, I’m not bold enough to call the away win in this game as Norwich are capable of matching anyone in the division when it comes to scoring goals at home. With Norwich being a potent side but missing so many important defenders and QPR with some talented attacking players themselves, this game looks a steal to back over 2.5 goals at evens in!
Team news – Norwich miss Barnett and Lappin as well as Surman, Ward, and Lansbury through injury.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Nottingham Forest vs Barnsley – home win to nil at 27/20.
This call has two factors to it; Forest’s good form of late and Barnsley striker O’Connor.
Forest have been playing well lately. I don’t know where it’s come from but they’ve gone from monotonous draws to back-to-back wins, eight goals scored, and a derby victory over Derby County to boot. Indeed, Forest won that game 5-2 earlier this week so morale couldn’t be higher for Forest at the moment. The attack of Earnshaw, Tyson, and Blackstock looks a bit lightweight in my eyes, to be honest, but if you’re scoring goals and playing well then you tend to find that goals are easier to come by. Forest have played well in their past couple of games and with momentum behind them, they should be able to take their chances today.
However, I do have to point out that I loathe betting against Barnsley because I respect them and they almost always fuck me over! That said, I have to call this one today as the odds are good and the selection makes sense. Barnsley have been playing well lately but that’s largely due to Garry O’Connor settling in properly in their attack and making them a much more potent side. Couple that with Barnsley’s somewhat obnoxious defiance against all opponents and you have a presentable force in this division. However, O’Connor’s permanent move to Barnsley from Birmingham City has yet to be finalised after his loan move ended and thus he is ineligible for Barnsley until their next game, which I’m hoping to take advantage of as Barnsley have looked totally lost without him lately. Indeed, with only Boro having scored less away goals than Barnsley have in the Championship this season, it’s hard to see Barnsley scoring here, especially without their much-needed target man. Barnsley have struggled at the City Ground since the two sides were re-acquainted in 2008, failing to score here for two consecutive seasons, succumbing to 1-0 defeats on each occasion. With O’Connor absent today, a similar scoreline is fairly likely, in my view.
However, rather than back Forest outright at 3/5 – which is a rip-off price (barring in an accumulator) – I’ve elected to back them to win without conceding as priced quite generously at 27/20 when you consider that Barnsley don’t score many away from home and miss a key attacker as well as Forest having kept four clean sheets in their last six home games…
Team news – Forest have doubts over Bertrand whereas Barnsley miss McEveley, Potter, and O’Connor.
Verdict: Nottingham Forest to win to nil at 27/20.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leyton Orient – lay Brighton & Hove Albion at 6/5.
“Hello! Are you a football side? If so, chances are that we’ve struggled against you lately – we’re Brighton!”
Yeah, I don’t know what’s happened to Brighton either but the wheels of their season have fallen off and I don’t know if it’s a temporary thing or not, to be honest. Brighton have over-achieved under talented boss Poyet, admittedly, but it’s very difficult to seperate the good from the bad sides in League One either way, to be honest. Either way, the fact remains that Brighton have won just one game since the start of November and that was an FA Cup victory at FC United of Manchester! They’ve not won for four consecutive home games, which includes two League One games (against Charlton Athletic and Bristol Rovers respectively) and two FA Cup games (against Woking and FC United of Manchester respectively). Brighton aren’t scoring enough goals to overcome their opponents and even their defence is shipping goals as the long season winds on so I really expect them to struggle here.
It aids my cause that Leyton Orient have a good number of players returning in the shape of Cox, Chambers, and Jones (all with illness/injury), not to mention Chorley’s return from suspension – those returning players make their defence and midfield look a lot more stable. As if that wasn’t enough already though – Orient bring tremendous momentum into this game following eight consecutive games in all competitions without defeat so they have to be respected here. They’ve only lost once in their last five League One away games and that was in an epic 3-2 defeat at Colchester United. Orient have held Peterborough and Bristol Rovers away from home during that run so they really are playing well and most importantly of all – they’re scoring goals. They’ve lost less than half of their away games in League One already this season so just what makes over-achieving Brighton 1/2 to win this game baffles me.
Happily, Brighton have failed to beat Orient at home for five consecutive attempts in all competitions and with a bit of luck, today will be the sixth time it happens. Orient have great momentum and some key players are back and although I’m nervous at the length of time they’ve gone without playing a game, it’s worth noting that Brighton have a similar problem with just one game played during that time themselves. Brighton aren’t playing well enough and don’t have enough quality to earn odds of 1/2, in my humble opinion, so laying the hosts at 6/5 looks a good call to me today.
Team news – Brighton miss Navarro whereas Leyton Orient miss Forbes and Whing for this game.
Verdict: Lay Brighton & Hove Albion at 6/5.
Rotherham United vs Port Vale – home win at 13/10.
Rotherham have a largely full squad to choose from with only captain Cresswell the notable absentee on the injury list so I expect a solid display from them today. Star striker Le Fondre is in immense form this season with sixteen goals bagged in nineteen games so if Rotherham are to win this game then he has to show up today. Rotherham are unbeaten in five consecutive League Two games and they’ve won three of those games so they do bring some decent momentum into this encounter. I often shy away from backing Rotherham at home, however, because their defence is very leaky and it has cost them at home this season already. Nonetheless, they have decent momentum and one of the best strikers in the division so I’ll take a chance with them today.
The other aspect that encouraged me to make this call was that Vale boss Micky Adams has left to join Sheffield United. During the whole media saga about whether Adams will go or not, Vale were clearly affected and were crushed 3-0 at Gillingham; a scoreline which accounts for over a third of their goals conceded away from home in League Two this season. It was a highly uncharacteristic display for Vale but it’s understandable given the potential loss of their boss. Adams did a very good job here and actually taught Vale to score goals, something they’d previously been lacking despite having a solid foundation at the back. Vale don’t have a replacement for Adams yet so there will only be a caretaker boss available for this game and that could and should hurt Vale today. They’re not an easy side to score against either way but if they’re going to play as inefficiently as they did against Gillingham then they’re going to get beat here.
The risk element is obvious here but I think Port Vale are going to struggle without their mentor because he was the team; the team was built around him. When a manager like that leaves, the side inevitably struggles. Rotherham may concede stupid goals at times but if Vale revert back to their old ways then they’re not going to attack well and they’re thus going to struggle as Rotherham always score at home. For me, the price of 13/10 on the home win is a tad generous here with Adams gone so that’s my call today.
Team news – Rotherham United miss Cresswell and have doubts over Coid for this game.
Verdict: Rotherham United to win at 13/10.
Aberdeen vs Dundee United – home win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Aberdeen certainly look to be the side to back now that experienced manager Craig Brown is in charge! They’ve won back-to-back games and we all know that they’ve got the quality to be at least mid-table so we should see some interesting odds on The Dons in the near future. Craig Brown is a stickler for well-organised defences and it’s no surprise that Aberdeen have only conceded one goal in two games since he’s taken over. Hell, they’d shipped five goals in the one game prior to that so you can already see the effect that he’s heaving on Aberdeen. The hosts for this game are starting to believe in themselves again and with old Brown in charge here, they have to be taken seriously as he knows how to get results off sides.
Aberdeen are going to need his knowledge today, too, as Dundee United have a pretty damn good record at Pittodrie. Nonetheless, Dundee United themselves have been somewhat poor themselves this season, in my view. They’re doing enough to contain sides but are rarely doing enough to win games, especially away from home. It’s sometimes defensive ineptitude and sometimes total stupidity that cripples them. Take their 2-2 draw at Hibernian last match, for example. They had a two-goal lead and then gave a goal away. They tried to bring some calm to the game by bringing Swanson on but the stupid prick got booked for a wild and rash challenge within a minute of coming on and was later dismissed for a blatant handball in the box, which was an attempt to cross the ball in with his hand when the ball was clearly going out of play. I’ve not seen such a stupid sending off for some time but because of that, Dundee United were under pressure, conceded a second goal, and drew a game 2-2 that they should have won. Their second goal may have been good but the first goal was given to them on a plate by Hibernian defender Bamba. It was that bad that Bamba could easily have joined in the Dundee United celebrations as he played a ball straight to the opposition, who fed emerging talent Goodwillie and he didn’t need to be told twice, swiftly and coolly scoring his eighth goal of the campaign. Dundee United can play football on their day and their defence should be more secure with Kenneth back in the team but they make some stupid decisions and it costs them. They’re facing a very determined Aberdeen side today and Brown’s sides rarely make mistakes so we’re going to have to see a very good display from the visitors in order for them to win this game, in my view, and I just don’t think that they’re capable of producing that display with the above in mind.
It’ll be interesting to see how Brown does when he has Mackie fully fit for Aberdeen again but until then, he’ll have to make do with what is available to him. For me, Aberdeen should not be 9/5 to win a game at Pittodrie against a side that they’re capable of beating and I think there could be an upset on the cards today if the bookies think that odds that long are acceptable here. Dundee United will most likely give Aberdeen a good game here but The Dons are playing well at the moment and I’d be surprised to see them lose this game. However, Aberdeen need as many points as possible and as quickly as possible to stave off the threat of relegation so I think calling the home win with draw no bet cover at 11/10 makes sense today as it’s priced rather generously.
Team news – Aberdeen miss Vujadinovic, Mackie, and Fyvie whereas Dundee United miss Swanson, Conway, Severin, Kovacevic, and Dods.
Verdict: Aberdeen to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
The New Saints vs Newtown – both sides to score at 9/10.
How the fuck are TNS 1/10 to win this game? Seriously? Yes, they’re one of the best sides in the Welsh Premier League and the gap between the better sides and the average ones is rather large but even so – Newtown have a real habit of giving TNS a good game in recent times so I don’t necessarily think that a whitewash is on the cards here. Don’t get me wrong – TNS are without a doubt the better of these two sides by some distance but they’ve struggled against Newtown for seven consecutive meetings now. TNS have only beaten them twice during that time and both of those occasions were away from home! During that period, these two sides have met three times with TNS playing at home and each game has ended in a score-draw. Indeed, the last five games between these two sides has involved both sides scoring so this one might have slipped under the bookies’ radar today. TNS have won all of their home games so far this season so it’ll take a braver man than me to give a + handicap to Newtown here. Nonetheless, I do think there’s value in both sides scoring as Newtown have only failed to score once away from home this season (they scored twice at in-form Bangor City!) and TNS have conceded in three out of their last five home games. Therefore, rather than the bland and uninteresting 1/10 price on the home win or even the dour handicap price, I’m far happier calling both sides to score at a very generous price of 9/10.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 9/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Nottingham Forest, The New Saints.
Recommended bets:
Manchester United, Sunderland, and Tottenham Hotspur at 3/1.
Nottingham Forest, The New Saints, and Rotherham United at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
English Premier League:
West Bromwich Albion vs Manchester United (8) 0-2
Liverpool vs Bolton Wanderers (5) over 2.5 goals
Manchester City vs Blackpool (8) -1.5 handicap, over 2.5 goals
Stoke City vs Everton (6) 0-0
Sunderland vs Blackburn Rovers (7) 2-1
Tottenham Hotspur vs Fulham (8) 2-1
West Ham United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (3) under 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Birmingham City vs Arsenal (6) 1-1
English Championship:
Leeds United vs Middlesbrough (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Millwall vs Crystal Palace (5) at least one red card in this game
Doncaster Rovers vs Scunthorpe United (6) under 2.5 goals
Burnley vs Sheffield United (6)
Swansea City vs Reading (5) under 2.5 goals
Norwich City vs Queens Park Rangers (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Bristol City vs Cardiff City (6) both sides to score
Nottingham Forest vs Barnsley (8)
Hull City vs Leicester City (6) both sides to score
Coventry City vs Ipswich Town (4)
Preston North End vs Derby County (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Watford vs Portsmouth (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
English League One:
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leyton Orient (3) both sides to score
Walsall vs Notts County (5)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Bristol Rovers (6)
Swindon Town vs Bournemouth (5) over 2.5 goals
Southampton vs Exeter City (7) over 2.5 goals
Brentford vs Dagenham & Redbridge (6)
Rochdale vs Tranmere Rovers (5)
Plymouth Argyle vs Yeovil Town (7)
Carlisle United vs Huddersfield Town (6) both sides to score
Hartlepool United vs Oldham Athletic (7)
Colchester United vs Charlton Athletic (4) draw no bet
English League Two:
Cheltenham Town vs Wycombe Wanderers (6)
Chesterfield vs Stockport County (7)
Barnet vs Aldershot Town (3)
Crewe Alexandra vs Northampton Town (6) over 2.5 goals
Gillingham vs Stevenage (6)
Morecambe vs Accrington Stanley (7)
Oxford United vs Southend United (6)
Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury Town (5)
Lincoln City vs Bradford City (6)
Bury vs Macclesfield Town (6)
Rotherham United vs Port Vale (6)
Hereford United vs Torquay United (5)
Scottish Premier League:
Hearts vs Hibernian (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Aberdeen vs Dundee United (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Hamilton Academicals vs Motherwell (6) under 2.5 goals
Welsh Premier League:
Aberystwyth Town vs Haverfordwest County (4) 1-1
The New Saints vs Newtown (8) over 2.5 goals
Carmarthen Town vs Llanelli (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!