Wil vs Lausanne Sports
FreeToday’s featured game is the Challenge League game between Wil and Lausanne Sports in Switzerland. Hopefully it will be a marked improvement on a highly disappointing RoPS Rovaniemi game yesterday at least!
Hosts Wil are a strange side. They could and should have been promoted to the Super League last season but their home wins alone let them down. Their overall dislays were convincing both at home and away but they failed to convert their chances consistently at home and thus drew too many home games. However, their quality is somewhat undeniable and it’d be frankly foolish to consider them as anything but one of the better Challenge League sides currently. Unlike most Challenge League sides, Wil has kept the majority of their players from last season so they have additional experience as well as three strikers that know how to find the net. Wil’s opening game this season resulted in a respectable 1-1 draw at Biel-Bienne so they’re clearly still a capable side despite the break between seasons. Wil beat Lausanne Spors here 4-2 last season and with virtually an identical team at their disposal today, I consider them able to do the same again.
Is the above enough when you consider that Lausanne Sports are also a very strong Challenge League side? Not alone, no. However, Lausanne’s attenton will surely be on their home game with Denmark’s Randers in a few days time in their UEFA Europa League Qualifier. Lausanne impressively won the first leg in Denmark 3-2 against their superior opponents but now not only have to cope with the fatigue tonight but also the knowledge that they need to be just as strong in a few days time to keep their European dream alive. Lausanne Sports are almost good enough to be a Super League side already but they don’t have the strength in-depth that they require to be a Super League side so I think they’re going to be caught out tonight. This is Lausanne’s fourth game in eleven days, one of which was in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the other of which was in Denmark. I cannot accept for one moment that Lausanne Sports will be able to take anything from a very good Wil side today with that in mind because they don’t have the squad to do it.
Both of these sides are very good and are candidates for promotion this year as a result. Atyipcally, I’d probably avoid the game but with the knowledge that Wil haven’t lost at home to Lausanne Sports before and that they’ve won three out of their last five home encounters against Lausanne Sports, you have to feel that they have a chance today. Couple that information with the knowledge that Lausanne Sports are either going to be fielding a very tired first team or an under-strength side and you have problems for the visitiors. For me, there is value in the home win tonight as the odds are good enough to take a chance on.
Verdict: Wil to win at 7/5.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Admira Wacker vs Austria Lustenau – home win with -1.75 handicap at 3/4.
Admira Wacker at 1/4 to win this game? What a joke! I was actually physically quite annoyed for a bit having seen those odds as they shouldn’t be shorter than 2/5. However, the bookies do have a point with those odds, exaggerated though they undoubtedly are. The point in question is that Austria Lustenau parted with most of their good midfielders and strikers over the summer which is why they’re currently lingering above the drop zone of Liga 1 with three defeats from their opening four games this season. Austria’s defence as remained largely entact, which is the only dubious part of this selection today. However, I don’t rate Austria Lustenau as one of the better sides in this division anymore as a result of their players sold so I do fancy this bet today. Admira Wacker were desperately unlucky not to be promoted last season and I expect them to come close (if not achieve it) this year. They’ve already demonstrated their power by winning three out their four games and scoring an average of over three goals per game. Admira have only conceded three during that run and are looking very strong indeed so I have a lot of faith in them tonight. Although the handicap price is a bit shorter than I’d like, I still fancy it given how poor Austria Lustenau have looked without their better attacking players. I can only endorse cautious betting here, however, as the only thing that Austria Lustenau still can do is defend well on their day. Either way, the home win with the -1.75 goal handicap is worth a shot tonight.
Verdict: Admira Wacker to win with -1.75 goal handicap at 3/4.
AC Horsens vs OB Odense – away win at 7/10.
There’s a very good reason that AC Horsens are the only Superligaen side yet to score a goal and it’s because they’re shit. I don’t like to be so blunt and I’m sure they’re all better than me etc. etc. but they’re frankly not good enough to be in this division. Their performances have been poor and they offer little to no attacking threat at all. OB have a trip to Bosnia-Herzegovina looming this week as they look to cement their place in the next round of the UEFA Europa League following a bizarre 5-3 win at home to Zrinjski Mostar last week. Despite that fact, I still fancy OB to win this one today against a very poor Horsens side. OB should have Djemba-Djemba available following his move to West Bromwich Albion collapsing and whatever side OB field tonight, I genuinely feel they’ll win this game with no great difficulty at all and I’d consider backing them at anything up to 1/2.
Verdict: OB Odense to win at 7/10.
Valerenga Oslo vs Start Kristiansand – home win with -1.75 handicap at 21/20.
Hosts Valerenga Oslo have been terrific in recent times and were even in their defeat at Aalesund last match, dominating the game throughout. However, they’re back on their own turf now where they’ve won six out of eight home games already this season whilst drawing the other two games. Valerenga have averaged scoring nearly three goals per home game during that run and don’t even concede a goal per home game on average. They’re a phenomenal side this season, especially with starlet Mo Abdellaoue in the form of his career with twelve goals in nineteen appearances. The pace in Valerenga’s attack with him and Jamaican striker Luton Shelton is unmatched which is largely why Valerenga have done so well this season. Valerenga are very much a dangerous side here and I think they’re going to have some fun against Start as a result.
I have a lot of respect for Start Kristiansand because of the goal threat that they consistently bring to each game they feature in. Only Odd Grenland Skien and Valerenga themselves have scored more on the road than Start have this season but similarly only newly-promoted clubs Honefoss and Kongsvinger have conceded more than they have away from home. Start average conceding over two goals per away game and despite three consecutive Eliteserien wins in recent times, I still cannot take them seriously in comparison to mighty Valerenga. Start bring momentum to this game after wins that…well, let’s say that they were capable of achieving so I won’t read too much into their wins for now.
My biggest concern here is that Valerenga’s defence won’t turn up against their potent visitors. If they do turn up then Valerenga should comfortably beat the handicap but if not then it’s a lot more dubious. Either way, you have to feel that there’s value in this handicap given the superior ability of Valerenga, the potency that they have, and the weakness of Start in defence so give it some thought!
Verdict: Valerenga Oslo to win with -1.75 goal handicap at 21/20.
CFR Cluj vs Victoria Branesti – away win with +1.75 goal handicap at evens.
This is a very risky bet but one I like a lot. Cluj were totally outplayed in their opening Liga game in Craiova and were fortunate to leave with a 0-0 draw in my opinion. Cluj have never been a side to consistently beat the handicaps – they much prefer their narrow but dominating wins. Consider that Cluj only beat the -1.75 goal handicap four times in seventeen home games last season despite winning twelve of those games and you’ll see what I mean. Cluj are without doubt the superior side here but they’ve not got going yet so I thnk they may be a tad rusty today. Victoria are a poor side, theres not avoiding that fact. However, this is one of the games of their season, taking on one of the giants away from home. This is their cup final basically, as I cannot see them surviving in this division, so they’ll be extremely motivated for this game. I don’t think they’re good enough to get a result here at all but I do expect them to keep it respectable (or at least attempt to!) and I think giving any side a +1.75 goal head start at evens is worthy of consideration, particularly with their opponents rarely beating the handicap and with it being so early in the season.
Realistically, Cluj could blow their opponents apart today but I think there’s value in giving the visitors a +1.75 goal head start today considering the above information.
Verdict: Victoria Branesti to win with a +1.75 goal handicap at evens.
Brommapojarna vs Helsingborgs – away win at 11/10.
Brommapojkarna are tough to play on the road because of their resilient defence which has conceded just six goals at home in the Allsvenskan this season. The hosts don’t score many but that’s not their intenton, to be fair – they simply aim to keep their opponents out. However, today they host one of the giants of the division – Helsingborgs. They’re currently leading the league table thanks to convincing and efficient displays this season and to win their first league title in some time they’re going to need to win tough games like this. They’ve been good on the road with four wins, two draws, and just two defeats in eight way games due to a solid defence. That defence really shouldn’t concede today so the big question is whether Helsingborgs will score or not. Helsingborgs have scored here for two consecutive visits and won here 3-0 last year so you have to fancy their chances today. I particularly fancy Helsingborgs not only because of their potency and superiority but also their solid defence should have a lot of fun against a Brommapojkarna attack devoid of Guidetti, who has moved on. He was responsible for a good portion of their potency and creativity so they’ll miss him, especially in games like this. For me, there’s value in the away win today whilst it remains above evens so give it some thought.
Verdict: Helsingborgs to win at 11/10.
Trelleborg vs Halmstad – home win at 6/5.
Despite often finding themselves at the wrong end of the Allsvenskan table, Trelleborg are always strong at home as they don’t concede many goals. They’ve only lost twice in eight home games this season, winning four times along the way. They barely average scoring more than a goal per home game but they rarely concede so they’re worthy of your respect here. Trelleborg have won three consecutive Allsvenskan games ahead of this encounter, two of which were at home. They’ve scored seven goals in those three games and bring strong momentum into this game as a result. Visitors Halmstad, however, have lost two out of their last three games in the Allsvenskan. Their away record is even more depressing than that with six consecutive away defeats in all competitions, scoring just once along the way. Halmstad lost four of those games by a single goal so it’s easy to see that their problem is scoring and not defending. Six defeats in eight Allsvenskan away games is not the kind of record to take to in-form hosts Trelleborg, particularly whilst averaging leaking over two goals per game and whilst scoring only just over a goal per every three away games. Halmstad are a better side than the statistics suggest but I can’t overlook such generous odds on the home win with the above in mind today – hell, I even fancy a cheeky -1.75 goal handicap too!
Verdict: Trelleborg to win at 6/5.
Recommended bets:
OB Odense, Admira Wacker, and Valerenga Oslo at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Austrian Liga 1:
Admira Wacker vs Austria Lustenau (8) -1.75 handicap
Bulgarian A PFG:
Chernomorets Burgas vs Akademik Sofia (7) 2-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Marila Pribram vs Sigma Olomouc (6) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens vs OB Odense (7) 0-2
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
Vikingur Gotu vs Suduroy (7) 2-0
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Valerenga Oslo vs Start Kristiansand (7) -1.75 handicap, over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Romanian Liga:
CFR Cluj vs Victoria Branesti (7) 1-0
Russian Premier League:
Tom Tomsk vs Sibir Novosibirsk (5) 1-0
Russian Division 1:
Luch-Energiya Vladivostok vs Energiya Khabarovsk (6) at least one red card in this game
Dinamo Bryansk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl’ (5)
Avangard Kursk vs FK Khimki (6)
Salyut Belgorod vs Kuban Krasnodar (6)
Rotor Volgograd vs KamAZ Nab Chelny (5) over 2.5 goals
Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan vs Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod (5)
FK Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast (6)
Mordovia Saransk vs Irtysh Omsk (6)
FK Krasnodar vs Baltika Kaliningrad (3)
Zhemchuzhina Sochi vs Dinamo St.Petersburg (4)
Singaporean S-League:
Beijing Guoan vs Home United (4) 1-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Nafta Lendava (5) 1-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Brommapojarna vs Helsingborgs (6) 0-1
Trelleborg vs Halmstad (7) 2-1
Atvidaberg vs Orebro (5) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Wil vs Lausanne Sports (6) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!