Zrinjski Mostar vs Tobol Kostanai
FreeFrom today onwards, I’m going to have a few Internet connectivity issues as there’s things going on in my life that require a lot of my attention, regrettably. Therefore, although I can post updates for most days, chances are that I can’t respond to queries on the comments section of each update. I’ve therefore left my esteemed colleague Marz in charge of responding to queries on the site until I’m back in the saddle. Alternatively, you can email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com and I’ll get back to you when I can. Chances are that this will only be a problem for a short while but we’ll see.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League second leg between Zrinjski Mostar and Tobol Kostanai in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Both sides are quite experiecing in European football but Zrinjski bring the advantage to this game having achieved an invaluable 2-1 victory in Kazakhstan in the first leg, which naturally means that the visitors need to attack in this game, possibly leaving them exposed at the back.
Bosnia-Herzegovina is not amongst the atypical list of “places to go before you die” because it’s a rather hostile environment. However, that environment helps create a strong level of support for the home side in games like this, which is precisely why only a very well-organised Sporting Braga have won here in the last three years of European football. Bosnian sides are traditionally very strong at home but poor away, which is why I was surprised that Zrinjski won at Tobol in the first round despite their quality advantange. Zrinjski have won at least 70% of their home games domestically for six consecutive seasons, which should tell you that they’re damn strong at home. They’ve worked their way into being one of the top dogs in Bosnia through constant effort and consistency and they’re now a side that commands respect in their own league. They’re no world-beaters but underestimating them at home is a foolish thing to do at the best of times. The hosts overcame Slovan Bratislava of Slovakia here last season without conceding so they’re no strangers to facing tricky opponents.
Visitors Tobol Kostanai have taken great strides on the European stage over the past few years and are still yet to establish themselves as a threat, realistically. They’re a tough opponent to face in Kazakhstan as both Galatasaray of Turkey and Austria Vienna of Austria have discovered over the past two years. However, it’s worth noting that the Kazakh visitors have lost every away game that they’ve ever played in European football, a record stretching back to 2006, losing to Basel, Groclin, Austria Vienna, and Galatasaray and respectively having scored just once during all four away games. Kazakh sides don’t have the experience or ability to take on the difficult away games and the trip to Mostar is most certainly a difficult trip. Look at the experience of Tobol outside of Kazakhstan – only five of their players aren’t from Kazakhstan! There’s very little experience there, although I’m mildly amused to see that this is where ex-Dinamo Minsk reject Dmitry Parkhachev ended up – yet another striker of their academy that had pace but nothing else!
Either way here – you have to favour the hosts. With the first leg advantage under their belts, I have to favour Zrinjski to finish the game off today on familiar territory with a poor travelling side that has to attack them today at generous odds of 21/20.
Verdict: Zrinjski Mostar to win at 21/20.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Banants Yerevan vs Anorthosis Famagusta – lay Anorthosis Famagusta at 23/20.
I’ll admit to underestimating the Cypriot side in their opening game of this tournament. I didn’t think they were as efficient as they were so fair play to them. However, as a result, their 3-0 win means that this game is fairly redundant for them so I can’t see them going all out to win this one. Anorthosis’ most redeeming feature is keeping opponents out, which is why the first leg result surprised me so much. Anorthosis have won just once in their last seven away games in European football and that win was at Kaerjeng in Luxembourg – not the most flattering of records, I’m sure you’ll agree. They’ve got a solid side but they’ve no reason to win this game today so why they’re at such short odds is beyond me. Banants aren’t a great side but they’re experienced in European football and should be able to grind out at least a draw in this game to earn themselves some respect against a low-scoring but superior opponent. Although this selection is far from a definite win, the odds still make it worthy of a punt.
Verdict: Lay Anorthosis Famagusta at 23/20.
Sliema Wanderers vs Sibenik – under 2.5 goals at 23/20.
Nobody here is going to deny that Sibenik are a better team than Sliema Wanderers but to suggest that Sibenik have earned odds of 1/3 is ludicrous. They’ve done nothing to earn those odds, in my eyes.
As one of our Croatian friends pointed out last week – Sibenik have sold their best striker and couldn’t break the resilience of Sliema in Croatia – why would they be able to do it away from home? I’m not confident enough in Sliema’s ability to lay the visitors, although they odds make it look tempting! Chances are that Sibenik can steal a goal here but I’d be surprised to see them score more than two goals here. Sliema are solid defensively and experienced in Europe so they’ll be well-prepared for this game. They’re not a particularly good side but taking Sibenik to extra time and penalties would be the equivilant of winning the trophy for them so don’t write off the hosts here.
I’m anticipating another droll encounter with few goals between these two defensive sides. I don’t really care who wins as there’s no value either way here, barring Sliema +2.75 on the handicap perhaps, but the odds are pretty poor. However, yet again, I really like the look of under 2.5 goals for obvious reasons so that’s my tip for this game today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 23/20.
Skonto Riga vs Portadown – lay Skonto Riga at 13/5.
How on earth are Skonto Riga 2/9 to win this game?! This smarts of yet another bookie trap to me! Sure, they’re from another country that most people can’t find on a map but that doesn’t make them a better football side. I saw a lot of people backing Skonto away at Portadown last match and I just wondered why – nothing supported that bet, in my humble opinion, and little does tonight. I’ll accept that Skonto are marginally the better side and have plenty of European experience but there’s very little difference between this league and the Northern Irish league, I assure you! One thing that I always find is massively overlooked in European competition is the tenacity of both Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland sides. I cannot put my finger on just why it is but those side are nearly impossible to beat! Derry City showed us the same thing last season by drawing here in Riga with Skonto and beating them at home, thus eliminating the Latvians. Portadown aren’t as good as Derry were back then and they’re new to the competition, admittedly, but why on earth Skonto are such heavy favourites is absolutely beyond me. They’ve not won in seven European games consecutively despite facing Derry City, Dinamo Minsk, and Molde – not the most formidable list of opponents, I’m sure you’ll agree. The last side Skonto beat in Europe was Jeunesse d’Esch of Luxembourg so if you want to back Skonto at shocking odds of 2/9 then be my guest. Who knows – maybe they’ll do you proud! My money is on laying the hosts today, however, because there’s more value in it by some distance as the tenacity of all Irish sides in Europe has been very visible indeed in Europe for some years now.
Verdict: Lay Skonto Riga at 13/5.
Gyori ETO FC vs FC Nitra – home win at 3/4.
It’s interesting to see that the bookies have now changed their minds about FC Nitra being the better of these two sides having seen their opening game in European football end in a fortunate 2-2 draw against Gyor in the first leg. Gyor are really worthy of shorter odds here so I’m happy to take them at 3/4. Unlike Nitra, Gyor have experience in European football and made a good account of themselves during their last foray into Europe. Gyor are a traditionally strong home side domestically and will look to take that form into Europe. Gyor have actually gone unbeaten in two out of their last three Soproni Liga campaigns at home so don’t underestimate them here. Indeed, they’ve lost three games per two of their last four seasons at home and finished mid-table and just above the relegation zone in those two seasons respectively with their home form being their only saviour. They don’t score that many at home but they’re so solid defensively that they don’t need to. You’re a braver man than I am if you go against the Hungarian hosts today, particularly with former Spartak Moscow striker Tarmo Kink in such delightful form at the moment!
Visitors Nitra don’t travel too well domestically as it is so why they’d start travelling well during their maiden voyage into European football is beyond me. I admire their attacking football but European football is all about tactics and tactics is something that Nitra often lack. Nitra lost just less than half of their away games in the Corgon Liga last season, which should tell you that they’re not ready to be successful in Europe. It’ll take time; it always does. Nitra’s free-flowing attacking football suffers more than most do away from home in Slovakia, however, because their defence is somewhat inept so they end up conceding a lot and not taking as many of their chances as they should. I appreciate that this game is in Europe but you can take a lot of information from a side’s domestic form and I think Nitra’s is key here – they’re simply not good enough.
3/4 isn’t the best set of odds you’ll ever see but I think they could easily have been shorter so I think it’s decent value to take the home win today.
Verdict: Gyori ETO FC to win at 3/4.
Gefle vs NSI Runavik – under 2.5 goals at 31/20.
I recommended backing NSI Runavik with a +1.75 goal handicap in the first leg between these two sides and we were desperately unlucky with Gefle winning 2-0 purely due to Faroese error in what was actually a very even game. In the two games in this competition thus far between Swedish and Faroese opposition, it has become very apparent indeed that the gap is closing between Faroe Islands and the rest of Scandinavia, which is something I’ve highlighted for a little while now. I don’t expect the likes of NSI Runavik to win this type of game, for instance, but I think they’ll make life very hard for physical Gefle tonight and don’t feel that there’s any value in backing the hosts as a result. Gefle are a resolute and well-organised side but don’t score many goals as a rule. I expect them to approach this game with their typical defensive line-up and perhaps steal a goal or two to put the tie to bed. I’m a tad concerned because NSI Runavik are scoring goals for fun in the Meistaradeildin at the moment and a single goal for the visitors here today would rupture this bet horribly. However, I think it’s worthwhile to take under 2.5 goals as Gefle have held strong against better attacks than that of minnows NSI Runavik so logically, taking under 2.5 goals in this game would be the best approach in my opinion, particularly at such generous odds.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 31/20.
Port Talbot Town vs TPS Turku – away win at 4/5.
I can’t write much here other than “quality difference”. A fairly impotent TPS Turku rammed three goals past Port Talbot Town in the first leg of this encounter and although they suffered a couple of injuries in that game and have faced Veikkausliiga giants HJK Helsinki since then, you still have to favour the visitors. Welsh football has progressed slightly, in my opinion, but Port Talbot Town are not one of the sides that I rate as the better sides in the Welsh Premier League. I recall Bangor City facing FC Honka Espoo last season and being completely outplayed in both legs with the 3-0 aggregate scoreline drastically flattering the Welsh side. I expect something similar today. Even though TPS Turku don’t need to do anything here, Port Talbot do and the experience of TPS Turku will be pivotal here as a result. I expect Port Talbot to attack to try and build on their single away goal but to get caught out often by an able TPS Turku. The odds should really be closer to 8/13 and wheras I appreciate the risk factor involved with TPS winning this game with no real reason to do so, I feel the odds are worthwhile due to the severe gap in quality between the two sides.
Verdict: TPS Turku to win at 4/5.
Glentoran vs KR Rekyjavik – away win at 6/4.
This bet follows the same route as my initial bet did a week ago where KR Reykjavik comfortably won 3-0. Glentoran’s problems are still very much apparent (to my knowledge) with their manager having left, their best player having moved on, and some absences with injuries/holidays. Even with some of those issues resolved, Glentoran still cannot possibly hope to upset the balance here with such a lot going against them. They’re a good side and as I mentioned earlier in another preview – never underestimate the tenacity of any Irish side. However, the fact is that they have to leave the comforts of their defence to attack their superior Icelandic opponents today and that could prove to be disastrous for the hosts. KR exploited Glentoran easily in the first leg with their towering strikers and comfortable passing and I expect more of the same tonight. KR may opt for a more counter-attacking style but either way, I expect them to do damage to an under-strength and out-of-practice Glentoran side today. KR Reykjavik love playing in Europe – they tend to have good results on a consistent basis as both Larissa of Greece and Basel of Switzerland can testify from last year’s campaign alone. KR are having a mixed Urvasldeild campaign but they’re still good enough to outclass their opponents today with so much going against Glentoran. There’s obviously a risk factor here because KR Reykjavik don’t have to do anything here but the opportunity to back them at such generous odds of 6/4 to beat an inferior side in any circumstance is certainly worthy of a punt.
Verdict: KR Reykjavik to win at 6/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Randers, Rabotnicki Skopje, Mogren Budva, Zestaponi, Valur Reykjavik, Liepajas Metalurgs, FK Ventspils, Tampines Rovers.
Recommended bets:
Randers, Gyori ETO FC, Rabotnicki Skopje, and Zestaponi at 3/1.
KR Reykjavik, Mogren Budva, and Zrinjski Mostar at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
Banants Yerevan vs Anorthosis Famagusta (5) 1-1
Tauras Taurage vs Llanelli (6) over 2.5 goals
Metalurg Skopje vs Qarabagh (5) 1-2
Sliema Wanderers vs Sibenik (6) under 2.5 goals
Flora Tallinn vs Dinamo Tbilisi (6) 1-1
Khazar Lenkoran vs Olimpia Balti (7) 2-1
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv vs Ulisses (8) under 2.5 goals
Skonto Riga vs Portadown (4) 1-1
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Trans Narva (5) 2-1
Dnepr Mogilev vs Laci (7) 2-0
F91 Dudelange vs Randers (9) -1.75 handicap
Dacia Chisinau vs Zeta Golubovci (5) 1-1
Gyori ETO FC vs FC Nitra (8) over 2.5 goals
Zalaegerszegi TE vs KF Tirana (7) 2-0
Gefle vs NSI Runavik (7) under 2.5 goals
Lusitanos vs Rabotnicki Skopje (9) -1.75 handicap
Port Talbot Town vs TPS Turku (7) over 2.5 goals
Mogren Budva vs Santa Coloma (10) -1.75 handicap
Zrinjski Mostar vs Tobol Kostanai (7) 2-0
Dundalk vs CS Grevenmacher (5) 2-1
EB/Streymur vs Kalmar (7) over 2.5 goals
Siroki Brijeg vs Olimpija Ljubljana (7) 1-0
Faetano vs Zestaponi (9) -1.75 handicap
Glentoran vs KR Rekyjavik (7) 1-2
Ruch Chorzow vs Shakhter Karagandy (7) 1-0
Fylkir Reykjavik vs Torpedo Zhodino (4) 1-1
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Valur Reykjavik vs Haukar Hafnarfjordur (8) 2-0
FH Hafnarfjordur vs Fram Reykjavik (6) over 2.5 goals
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Keflavik (7) 1-1
UMF Grindavik vs Selfoss (6) 2-1
Breidablik Kopavogur vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (4) 1-1
Latvian Virsliga:
Liepajas Metalurgs vs FK Jurmala (8) 2-0
Blazma Rezekne vs FK Ventspils (8) 1-2
Russian Premier League:
Spartak Nalchk vs Terek Grozny (5) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Sengkang Punggol (8) 2-0
Beijing Guoan vs Young Lions (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!