Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
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Today’s free tip is in the Melbourne derby between Victory and City.
Derby or not, I have to believe that City will be comfortable enough here. I’m not seduced by their recent emphatic victories, although it doesn’t do their confidence levels any harm. No, I’m more interested by how well they’ve converted the chances they’ve had. That’s what is winning them games, enough so to offset any mistakes made at the back, and that trend should not dissipate here.
Victory have been poor for a bit now. I like Popovic a lot, and I respect the organisation of his teams enormously. However, they really are riding their luck at the moment. I still don’t know how they managed to beat Glory’s “B” team midweek. They’re trying to play the ultimate 1-0 tactics but aren’t really doing it very well. The players are there but some of their match-winners aren’t showing up right now. Folami, Brimmer, and Margiotta are such players, and D’Agostino has naturally gone off the boil lately after a run of form he was never going to be able to maintain.
Their defence is solid enough but a little on the old side, which means that they struggle with pace (not a coincidence that Popovic prefers to keep them playing with a low block) and that they struggle with fixture congestion more than most. Factor in how they were screwed around fights-wise for the Glory game and you’ve got a team that is struggling. Again, the quality is there but they’re just not in City’s league right now.
City themselves have problems, mind you – don’t suffer from any illusions there. Glover is still a very scared goalkeeper, and his defence worries because they know that. Under sustained periods of pressure, they do buckle. Luckily, Victory are not the kind of front foot team to expose such but other teams are so I wouldn’t read too much into their form guide other than to observe how ridiculously well they’re taking their chances right now.
That’s what tipped the scales here for me; City score goals. In their two recent one-sided results, they took the lead when precisely nothing was going on. It was purely a speculative effort from Bos that put them ahead midweek but that’s where the team is at right now; highly confident at all times. Therefore, I believe they’ll beat Victory here. I don’t envision the designated home team affording them many opportunities to open the scoring but in the mood they are, City will jump at any chance they get – and they will get some.
Therefore, I am on the away win here.
Verdict: Melbourne City to win at evens.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Western United vs Wellington Phoenix
Western Sydney Wanderers vs Brisbane Roar
Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
Central Coast Mariners vs Sydney FC
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Ried vs Hartberg
Admira Wacker vs LASK
WSG Tirol vs SCR Altach
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AS Eupen vs KV Oostende
Antwerp vs Cercle Brugge
Brazilian Serie A:
Fluminense vs Santos
Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo
Palmeiras vs Ceara
Bulgarian A PFG:
Beroe vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Levski Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
Hajduk Split vs Sibenik
Czechia Liga 1:
Sigma Olomouc vs Viktoria Plzen
Slovacko vs Karvina
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec
Teplice vs Sparta Prague
English Premier League:
Everton vs Manchester United
Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Southampton vs Chelsea
Watford vs Leeds United
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Tallinn vs Legion
Trans Narva vs Vaprus Parnu
Tammeka vs Kuressaare
Faroese Betrideildin:
Vikingur Gota vs Skala
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku vs AC Oulu
Ilves vs KuPS
HIFK vs IFK Mariehamn
French Ligue 1:
Stade de Reims vs Stade Rennais
Clermont Foot 38 vs Paris Saint-Germain
German Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich vs Augsburg
VfL Wolfsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld
Koln vs Mainz 05
Greuther Furth vs Borussia Moenchengladbach
Hertha Berlin vs Union Berlin
German Bundesliga 2:
Schalke 04 vs Heidenheim
St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen
Erzgebirge Aue vs Hannover 96
Nurnberg vs Darmstadt 98
Hungarian Liga 1:
Varda SE vs Mezokovesd-Zsory
Gyirmot vs Puskas FC
Ferencvaros vs Debreceni VSC
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Jerusalem
MS Ashdod vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Hadera
Hapoel Nof Hagalil vs Beitar Jerusalem
Italian Serie A:
Empoli vs Spezia
Internazionale vs Hellas Verona
Cagliari vs Juventus
Italian Serie B:
Como vs Cittadella
Alessandria vs Pordenone
Lecce vs SPAL
Frosinone vs Cremonese
Lithuanian A Lyga:
FK Panevezys vs Jonava
Dziugas Telisiai vs Zalgiris Vilnius
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Sparta Rotterdam
NEC vs FC Twente Enschede
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Lillestrom vs Jerv
Portuguese Liga 1:
Pacos de Ferreira vs Maritimo Funchal
SL Benfica vs Belenenses
Boavista vs Arouca
Tondela vs Sporting Clube de Portugal
Portuguese Liga 2:
Casa Pia vs Farense
Mafra vs Chaves
SL Benfica II vs Estrela
Vilafranquense vs Academico Viseu
Romanian Liga 1:
Arges vs FCV Farul Constanta
UTA Arad vs Rapid Bucharest
Spanish Primera Liga:
Cadiz vs Real Betis Balompie
Real Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid
Villarreal vs Athletic Club
Real Madrid vs Granada
Swedish Allsvenskan:
GIF Sundsvall vs Hammarby
Degerfors vs BK Hacken Goteborg
Swiss Super League:
Young Boys Bern vs Lausanne Sport
Grasshopper Zurich vs Luzern
Swiss Challenge League:
SC Kriens vs FC Wil
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport
Turkish Super Lig:
Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor (
Fatih Karagumruk vs Kasimpasa
Goztepe vs Kayserispor
Rizespor vs Konyaspor
Besiktas JK vs Alanyaspor
Enjoy your free betting tips!