Palmeiras vs Corinthians
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Today’s free tip is in the Brazilian Serie A encounter between Palmeiras and Corinthians.
This is a big Sao Paulo derby but it’s been a while since these two teams were on the same plateau quality-wise. That’s certainly not the only factor in a derby but it’s pretty handy when the team you’re backing is simply better than their opponents!
For me though, the main factor here is that I can trust Palmeiras to want it more. Yes, they’ve got better players but they show an extra level of desire to win games, and that happens at both ends. They’re happy to lay their lives on the line to prevent a goal or to engage in a 50/50 to potentially win. It’s little things like that which give them an edge over a lazy team like Corinthians.
Corinthians, for all of their quality, just don’t have enough passion. Or rather, the passion they do have seems to be misplaced. I’ve recently read that ex-Chelsea and ex-Arsenal star Willian wants to leave because of death threats against his family, which is ludicrous really. In my opinion, Corinthians have actually assembled their best attack in years now that they’ve retained Guedes and acquired Moraes. Augusto and Giuliano are still there to run the show for them too. They’ve even managed to get Paulinho back, who is a fine player!
However, I still have the same problem with this team; they don’t want it enough. Now, I suppose you could argue that it doesn’t matter if you’re, say, Flamengo. I mean, they don’t have a lot of desire or work-rate but still win a lot. True enough, but Flamengo have two players per position and a match-winner for each one; Corinthians do not. They have a better attack now than they have in ages, as I said above, but they need to get the ball to their attackers – and I don’t see how that can happen. Palmeiras are very good at stifling teams and I suspect they’ll do it here. They’ve lost most away games against Palmeiras in recent years via similar methods, to be honest.
Corinthians have a couple of wins to their name already this season but being brutally honest, beating Avai and Botafogo (both of which have only just returned to Serie A) is hardly ground-breaking stuff. I’ll be more impressed if they can hold their own in this derby. Palmeiras may be without a win in Serie A this season but that can happen. Ceara struck lucky on the day, and other than that Palmeiras have been playing away from home, one of which was against Flamengo! In other words, I can forgive Palmeiras for what’s gone on; it makes sense.
The home team have managed to keep prize assets like Gabriel Veron and Gabriel Menino pre-season, which is advantageous, although the latter is yet to play this season. They’ve got a settled and capable group with plenty of experienced match-winners. They’re not at all easy to rattle, and their defence is amongst the best in Brazil. I have no issue trusting this team to beat most opponents at home this season, and derby or not, that should not change here.
For my money, Palmeiras are far better equipped both mentally and on the pitch to win this game.
Verdict: Palmeiras to win at 9/10.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Mariners
Austrian Bundesliga:
LASK vs SCR Altach
Admira Wacker vs Hartberg
WSG Tirol vs SV Ried
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
KV Mechelen vs Sporting Charleroi
Belgian Eerste Klasse Promotion/Relegation Play-Offs:
RWDM vs RFC Seraing
Brazilian Serie A:
RB Bragantino vs Sao Paulo
Athletico Paranaense vs Flamengo
Fluminense vs Internacional
Palmeiras vs Corinthians
Atletico Mineiro vs Coritiba
Croatian Prva Liga:
Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rijeka vs NK Osijek
Czechia Liga 1:
Sparta Prague vs Banik Ostrava
Baumit Jablonec vs Pardubice
Karvina vs Zlin
Teplice vs Bohemians 1905
English Premier League:
Arsenal vs Manchester United
Leicester City vs Aston Villa
Manchester City vs Watford
Norwich City vs Newcastle United
Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Legion vs Vaprus Parnu
Kuressaare vs Flora Paide
Nomme Kalju vs Trans Narva
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HJK vs Inter Turku
Ilves vs VPS
Finnish Ykkonen:
TPS vs JaPS
Ekenas IF vs PEPO
KPV vs Gnistan
French Ligue 1:
Olympique Lyonnais vs Montpellier HSC
AS Saint-Etienne vs AS Monaco
Paris Saint-Germain vs Racing Club Lens
German Bundesliga:
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin
Eintracht Frankfurt vs TSG Hoffenheim
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Moenchengladbach
Koln vs Arminia Bielefeld
Greuther Furth vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayern Munich vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga 2:
Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen
Holstein Kiel vs Heidenheim
Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV
St. Pauli vs Darmstadt 98
Hungarian Liga 1:
Varda SE vs Debreceni VSC
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Paksi SE
Fehervar vs Puskas FC
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Netanya vs Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Nof HaGalil
Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Haifa
Hapoel Jerusalem vs Beitar Jerusalem
Italian Serie A:
Torino vs Spezia
Venezia vs Atalanta Bergamo
Internazionale vs AS Roma
Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria
Lithuanian A Lyga:
FK Panevezys vs Banga Gargzdai
Dziugas Telsiai vs FA Siauliai
Hegelmann Litauen vs Zalgiris Vilnius
Dutch Eredivisie:
NEC vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam
AZ vs SC Heerenveen
RKC Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs PSV Eindhoven
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Odd vs Aalesund FK
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord
Portuguese Liga 1:
Portimonense vs Moreirense
SL Benfica vs Famalicao
Santa Clara vs Maritimo Funchal
Gil Vicente vs Pacos de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2:
Casa Pia vs Estrela
Chaves vs Academica de Coimbra
Romanian Liga 1:
UTA Arad vs Chindia Targoviste
Rapid Bucharest vs Sepsi
Spanish Copa del Rey:
Real Betis Balompie vs Valencia
Swiss Super League:
FC Zurich vs FC Sion
Young Boys Bern vs Servette
Swiss Challenge League:
Aarau vs SC Kriens
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Thun
Turkish Super Lig:
Fatih Karagumruk vs Giresunspor
Gaziantep FK vs Goztepe
Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor
Enjoy your free betting tips!