Hamarkameratene vs Valerenga Oslo
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Today’s free tip is in the Norwegian Eliteserien encounter between Hamarkameratene and Valerenga Oslo.
Earlier in the season, Valerenga Oslo were a complete disaster, despite being one of Norway’s best teams on paper. Even the loan signing of their former star Donnum did not help. Every man and his dog called for Fagermo’s head, and I thought he’d go too. He’s a very experienced manager but you can’t be in charge of a club like this and lose as many games as the team had been doing.
However, Valerenga Oslo stuck by the veteran manager, and they’ve now been proved right. They’re a bit too late to the party for a title push, but five wins on the spin tells you how things are going for them right now. Indeed, after beating Aalesund FK 4-0 last time out, former Aalesund FK manager (currently at Rosenborg BK) Rekdal took to social media to ask where everybody was that had been asking for Fagermo’s head had mysteriously vanished to.
That’s the thing with the capital club – they’ve become more confident, so they’re making more of positive situations. I won’t say that they’ve been awful this season, but they were horribly ineffectual in the final third. It made them predictable. Now, I remember the games against Kristiansund and Sarpsborg 08, where they first began to turn things around, and they actually had luck on their side in those games. Since then though, the pattern of their games hasn’t differed that much to what it was like earlier in the season. Yes, they’re moving the ball quicker now but the predominant difference is that when they get a chance now, they take it. Furthermore, they push for more goals when they go ahead because they know they’ll concede at some point so even games like against Viking Stavanger don’t come back to bite them in the arse – earlier in the season, I am utterly convinced that Valerenga Oslo would have lost that kind of match. Not now though.
This confidence that Valerenga Oslo has, in conjunction with their superior attack, makes them one hell of a threat. They’re not perfect; they will concede goals. However, they look very likely to outscore teams at the moment, and newly-promoted HamKam should not be an exception to the rule, especially now that fellow Norwegian teams have figured them out. I still think that the home team deserve a lot of credit here though. They’ve been incredibly hard to beat this season, and given their lack of proven Eliteserien quality, that’s very impressive.
However, goal-scoring is a huge problem for HamKam; only Odd and Aalesund FK outside of the bottom four have scored less than they have, and there are reason for both of those statistics. As impressed as I am by their togetherness and structure, I just don’t fear their attack. With service, Kirkevold and Enkerud are handfuls but usually things get a bit isolated up front because the support system simply isn’t there for a team that focuses on avoiding defeat before anything else.
I respect HamKam, and I believe that they’ll cause Valerenga Oslo a few headaches because of their style. However, I also believe that only one of these two teams is equipped to outscore the other right now, and that’s the capital club, hence the pick.
Verdict: Valerenga Oslo to win at 23/20.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian Cup:
Sydney United vs Western United
Austrian Bundesliga:
Austria Lustenau vs Hartberg
Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC
LASK vs Rapid Vienna
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Sint-Truiden vs RSC Anderlecht
AS Eupen vs Antwerp
OH Leuven vs Club Brugge
Zulte-Waregem vs Racing Genk
Brazilian Serie A:
Coritiba vs Atletico Mineiro
Flamengo vs Athletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino
Ceara vs Fortaleza
America Mineiro vs Santos
Internacional vs Fluminense
Bulgarian A PFG:
CSKA Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia
Croatian Prva Liga:
NK Osijek vs Varazdin
Rijeka vs Slaven Koprivnica
Czechia Liga 1:
Baumit Jablonec vs Slavia Prague
Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec
Ceske Budejovice vs Slovacko
Sparta Prague vs Sigma Olomouc
Danish Superligaen:
Viborg vs Silkeborg
Aalborg BK vs FC Nordsjaelland
Brondby vs OB
English Premier League:
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham United
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Paide vs Kuressaare
Faroese Betri Deildin:
EB/Streymur vs HB Torshavn
AB vs KI
07 Vestur Sorvagur vs B68 Toftir
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
KuPS vs IFK Mariehamn
French Ligue 1:
AC Ajaccio vs Racing Club Lens
AJ Auxerre vs Angers SCO
Stade de Reims vs Clermont Foot 38
Troyes vs Toulouse
OGC Nice vs Racing Club Strasbourg
Stade Brestois vs Olympique de Marseille
German Bundesliga:
Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin
Bayern Munich vs VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga 2:
St. Pauli vs Magdeburg
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Greuther Furth
Hannover 96 vs Jahn Regensburg
Hungarian Liga 1:
Varda SE vs Puskas FC
Ferencvaros vs Fehervar
Budapest Honved vs Paksi SE
Icelandic Besta-Deild:
IBV vs FH
KA vs IA
Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Gardabaer
Italian Serie A:
ACF Fiorentina vs Cremonese
SS Lazio vs Bologna
Salernitana vs AS Roma
Spezia vs Empoli
Italian Serie B:
Ascoli vs Ternana
Benevento vs Cosenza
Brescia vs Sudtirol
Modena vs Frosinone
SPAL vs Reggina
Venezia vs Genoa
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Riteriai vs Zalgiris Vilnius
Banga Gargzdai vs Suduva Marijampole
Dutch Eredivisie:
Volendam vs NEC
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Groningen
FC Twente Enschede vs Fortuna Sittard
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Jerv vs Lillestrom SK
Tromso vs Kristiansund
Hamarkameratene vs Valerenga Oslo
Portuguese Liga 1:
Boavista vs Santa Clara
Vizela vs FC Porto
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Estoril
Romanian Liga 1:
Universitatea Craiova vs CS Mioveni
CFR Cluj vs Botosani
FCSB vs Chindia Targoviste
Spanish Primera Liga:
Cadiz vs Real Sociedad
Valencia vs Girona
Almeria vs Real Madrid
Swedish Allsvenskan:
AIK Solna vs IFK Varnamo
Djurgarden vs Kalmar FF
Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall
Degerfors vs Varberg
Elfsborg Boras vs IFK Norrkoping
Swiss Super League:
Winterthur vs FC Zurich
FC Basel vs Lugano
Young Boys Bern vs Servette
Swiss Challenge League:
Vaduz vs Thun
Turkish Super Lig:
Umraniyespor vs Antalyaspor
Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragucu
Alanyaspor vs Besiktas JK
Enjoy your free betting tips!