Wellington Phoenix vs Western Sydney Wanderers
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Today’s free pick is in the Australian A-League encounter between Wellington Phoenix and Western Sydney Wanderers.
It’s difficult to know how teams will fare after a few weeks without playing but I don’t really think that Phoenix will lose this game. It does bother me that they’re suddenly so suspect in defence; that was one of their strong suits last season. I don’t know what’s changed either. Laws and Wootton in front of Sail is a solid enough combination but they’ve found it tough going this campaign. Admittedly, they weren’t helped by injuries in midfield, which lessened cohesion in general, and placed more pressure on them. They’ve buckled in ways I didn’t expect though. Take the home game against Western United, for example – battered them, 2-0 up after 60 mins, and lost 3-2.
I don’t think that’ll happen here though. I still have those concerns, but the opposing team tends to need to force them into such errors, and Western Sydney Wanderers are not really a ‘forceful’ team, per se. I don’t doubt that Rudan knows his old team well but his team’s style is slow, cautious, and entirely centred around not conceding the first goal. If they fall behind, they struggle like crazy, which is why they seldom take unnecessary risks. I can’t imagine them running enough to force Phoenix into mistakes should they fall behind.
I also think it’s a good time to back Phoenix because of where they’re at. Not only have they got talismanic English attacker Ball back from injury now, and closing in on full fitness, but they’ve also got Sasse back from suspension, Kraev having slotted in seamlessly, and now Captain Rufer back in the squad after a long, long time out – and he was expected to be out until March. I don’t think he’ll start, but his presence in this squad is a big boost for them. Although not one of their best players, he’s certainly one of their most influential.
Talay is their hidden weapon, of course. He’s a brilliant motivator, and will be one hell of a loss when he almost inevitably leaves at the end of the season at the expiration of his contract. He’s the one that has suddenly turned plain Waine into a lethal poacher, and Old into a crafty creator from nothing. Anyway, the combination of Talay with an almost fully fit squad makes Phoenix dangerous. They get good home support, especially after spending so long without home games during Covid, and they’ve got a dangerous attack at the moment. Given how much industry they have, I suspect they’ll make a real nuisance of themselves here.
Western Sydney Wanderers are better at defending, and the combination of Mrcela and Marcelo is entirely the reason for such. For my money, they’ve been the best centre-back pairing in the A-League this season. They won’t give many chances away here either, even under pressure. Indeed, Western Sydney Wanderers seem content enough without the ball a lot of the time so they’ll probably find it quite agreeable to watch Phoenix huff and puff.
I still think that Phoenix will find a way through though, and that’s dangerous for the visitors because as I said above, they don’t really have a proven route back into matches from such positions. They’ve got plenty of match-winners in the final third but they just don’t commit men forward often enough. Yengi is brilliant; I love him. If anyone is to bail the visitors out here, I don’t doubt that he’ll be involved, alongside maestro Ninkovic. I’m just not convinced they’ll see enough of the ball in the right areas to do any damage though, knowing the legs that Phoenix have.
I wouldn’t read too much into this game being played in Wollongong either. I appreciate it’s a lot closer to Sydney than Wellington but remember that Phoenix played in Wollongong for years during Covid when they weren’t allowed to play home matches in New Zealand. They formed an ‘alliance’ of sorts with the local team, Wollongong Wolves, and now the fans of each club support the other so the Kiwis will have plenty of fans here, as will Western Sydney Wanderers, I suspect.
Western Sydney Wanderers may be smarter than Phoenix, and they sure do have bigger names to boot, but this kind of game doesn’t suit them. They prefer facing teams like Sydney FC, who are obliged to come at them. For me, this sticky wicket may just provide a bit of an upset in Wollongong, hence my pick.
Verdict: Wellington Phoenix to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Sydney FC vs Melbourne City
Perth Glory vs Western United
Enjoy your free betting tips!