Walsall vs Norwich City
FreeBefore I begin today’s post, I simply must express the thoughts of all at The Footy Tipster in tribute to Paraguayan striker Salvador Cabanas and his family following the horrific incident in Mexico City lately. We wish you a speedy recovery and hope to see you scoring goals again in no time at all.
Today’s featured game is the League One encounter between Walsall and Norwich City. Hosts Walsall are having an average season but have been particularly poor of late whereas visitors Norwich City are in the form of their lives as they maintain a very real promotion push.
Hosts Walsall are a capable side but tend to enjoy showing this sporadically rather than consistently. However, Walsall have discovered a form of consistency lately – a form that leaves them without a win in four games. In those four games Walsall have lost three times and drawn once. Walsall have scored in all of those games so it becomes more than apparent that their issues are related to defending. Indeed, any side that can claim to have conceded nine goals over their past four games (an average of over two goals conceded per game) can claim to have some real problems. Despite the facts above, however, Walsall have been a difficult side to take on at home this season with just three sides out of twelve emerging from away games here with three points. Walsall do enjoy scoring goals so Norwich will have to work hard here today to get three points but I honestly can’t see a better placed side to do so in League One at the present time.
Incidentally, Norwich City are the most in-form side in the division currently. As potent threat Leeds United have stumbled in their last two games, leaders Norwich City have progressed. Overall, Norwich City are proving themselves on a far more consistent and incisive basis. Valiant Walsall are not a side that can be brushed aside easily but Norwich are looking good. Even their away form has reached a formidable stage, particularly when it’s coupled with Manager Paul Lambert’s tactical prowess and potent attacking football. Whom can stop them? Answer: nobody at the present time! Genuinely now – I cannot think of a better side currently.
Rare is it when I can feel so confident about an away win in League Two but here we are!
You could say that Norwich City are doing more than enough to win and I’d certainly agree!
With twelve goals scored in their past five games, Norwich City are looking very potent. Six straight wins gives them tremendous momentum and with their excellent football, it’s hard to see them doing anything but winning this game today, particularly as they’re the better side. I expect a lot of goals in this game but I can see vale in the away win tonight.
Verdict: Norwich City to win at 10/11.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Deportivo Tachira vs Libertad Asuncion – home win at 5/4.
Tonight’s game in Venezuela sees lofty hosts Deportivo Tachira taking on Paraguayan opponents Libertad Asuncion. It’s hard to call games in the early stages of big competitions like the Copa Libertadores but I have a reason supporting my call that is usually relevant in South America – home advantage. Venezuela is a very high country geographically and unless the visiting side is a competent and efficient side, they tend to struggle. Deportivo Tachira are not a great side but they’re a good home side and one of the best sides in Venezuela, for what little that actually means. They’ll make this trip very hard for their Paraguayan opponents and I think they’ve got enough in their arsenal to steal a goal or two.
Libertad Asuncion are arguably more experienced than Deportivo Tachira in continental competition in recent times after a decent run in the Copa Nissan Sudamericana in their last campaign. Libertad were good in the majority of their away games but the thing I noticed about them is that they tend to struggle in the higher countries i.e. Ecuador and Peru in this particular instance. Libertad are a decent side, don’t get me wrong, but there are some trips you just don’t want to do and this is definitely one of them. Libertad are a side that tend to be more aggressive than the average side and this could go against them if they have a man dismissed.
All in all, there’s loose scratchings to base tips on in the earlier stages of this competition but I think there’s enough in Deportivo Tachira’s home advantage to make the home win a decent value bet today.
Verdict: Deportivo Tachira to win at 5/4.
Sheffield United vs Reading – home win at 4/5.
Hosts Sheffield United have been playing with some consistency in recent times, which is a vast improvement on their previous form. They’ve won three out of their last five Championship games. Their home record in recent times is impressive with four wins and one draw in five games, all of which were played without Sheffield United even conceding a goal. Sheffield United are playing with renewed vigour and belief, something that they haven’t shown for the majority of this season so it’s refreshing to see them back in business. Only a handful of sides have scored more goals at home than Sheffild United have this season so the hosts are well-placed to take points from this game from a potency and momentum perspective.
Visitors Reading have performed well in the FA Cup in recent times against Premiership misfits Liverpool and relegation-threatened Burnley but their general performances in the Championship simply aren’t good enough. Reading enter this game on a six-game winless run with their last two games being two consecutive defeats, one an acceptable defeat at Nottingham Forest and the other a crushing 4-1 defeat at Plymouth Argyle, a completely unacceptable scoreline. Reading have already lost seven out of thirteen away games in the Championship this season and average conceding nearly two goals per away game. With a lack of momentum and a leaky defence, it’s hard to see Reading taking points off an in-form Sheffield United side that are simply better than they are.
Verdict: Sheffield United to win at 5/4.
Swindon Town vs Leeds United – home win at 15/8.
Hosts Swindon Town are still performing above all expectations and currently occupy fifth place in League One. They’ve only been beaten once at home in twelve games but have won seven times along the way. Swindon are one of the lower conceding sides in the divison when playing at home and have notched up an impressive four wins in their past five games, drawing the other encounter. Swindon have scored an average of over two goals per game for their past five games and generally make themselves very hard to beat whilst scoring enough to win the game in question. Swindon are not a great side in this division but they’re an organised and determined side and it’s that determination which has carried them to their present lofty league placing so I can only take my hat off to them for that.
Visitors Leeds United are one of the better sides in the division and are certainly a better side than Swindon Town. However, they’ve not won either of their last two League One games despite both games being against sides that they could and should be beating. Leeds United appear to have diverted their attention towards an FA Cup run as they’ve managed to beat Manchester United in recent times and also claimed a tricky but valuable draw at Tottenham Hotspur two days ago. However, the two fixtures against Premier League opponents have something in common; each game drains the hell out of Leeds United because of their immense work-rate. Leeds were battered from pillar to post for large parts of their trip to Tottenham two days ago but were still just about worthy of the 2-2 draw which they took from the game. However, Leeds will be absolutely shattered after this game and they don’t have much momentum from their League One games to take into this trip tonight so I can see them struggling.
With Leeds having lost at Exeter City in their last League One game and with them fielding a very tired squad, it’s hard to overlook some very interesting odds of 15/8 for a refreshed, determined, and in-form Swindon Town to win tonight.
Verdict: Swindon Town to win at 15/8.
Colchester United vs Milton Keynes Dons – home win at 11/10.
Despite taking a 5-0 battering at home to Norwich City in their last match, Colchester United remain one of the better sides in League One. They’ve won nine out of twelve home games and are generally a potent threat to any side with an average of nearly two goals scored per home game. Colchester haven’t won in two games but their run prior to their two-game winless run was excellent so there’s still some confidence in their ranks. It’ll be interesting to see if Colchester can maintain their good run this season despite a couple of recent hammerings in both domestic league and domestic cup competition because the ability is there; all they need to do is harness it.
Visitors Milton Keynes Dons have never convinced me that they’re as good as people make out. They’re a decent side who play good football so don’t get me wrong but they’re simply not in the same league as the likes of Norwich or Leeds or Colchester. That’s one of the reasons that Milton Keynes Dons have lost six and won six out of their thirteen away games this season – they’re simply outclassed by better sides and outclass lesser sides themselves. Milton Keynes Dons have some strong momentum behind them with three wins in their past four games so I expect them to make life difficult for an unsure Colchester United tonight but ultimately I expect the home advantage and the quality gap to be evident by the final whistle.
Verdict: Colchester United to win at 11/10.
Darlington vs Northampton Town – away win at evens.
Bottom club Darlington finally broke their horrific run of form lately with a shock win at Rotherham United. However, the fact that Darlington followed up their heroic win by losing at Crewe Alexandra convincingly in their next match indicates that it simply was a fluke; it just can’t happen often for them. Darlington have already lost seven out of ten home games in League Two this season and have amassed just four goals at home all season. They’re frankly an atrocious side and look likely to lose against anyone, particularly with a record of six defeats in their past seven League Two games. Darlington have little ability and no momentum so to see them do anything but lose this game would shock me.
Visitors Northampton Town are beginning to show why they were a League One side last year by playing convincingly and efficiently in recent times. Their general away statistics for the season aren’t convincing so it’s no great surprise that this bet largely hinges on the strong momentum of Northampton Town rather than the statistics. Northampton are unbeaten in seven games – they’ve scored eight times and conceded just three times along the way so their defence is certainly carrying the weight of their recent success. However, their attackers will get ample opportunity to prove their potency as they taken on a shoddy Darlington defence tonight where they should steer Northampton to victory with considerable ease.
Basically, although Northampton aren’t world-beaters, they’re still head and shoulders above a poor Darlington side that aren’t good enough to compete in games like this. Result? Away win.
Verdict: Northampton Town to win at evens.
Haka Valkeakoski vs JJK Jyvaskyla – lay Haka Valkeakoski at 10/11.
Hosts Haka Valkeakoski are a decent side but over-achieved last season, in my opinion. They managed to frustrate a great number of their opponents last season but eventually crumbled under the pressure and showed their true colours towards the end of the season by finishing sixth despite leading the Veikkausliiga for a good portion of the season. Haka were more unconvincing at home than they were on the road last season, in my opinion. Indeed, they only managed to notch up five wins in thirteen home games, which isn’t really good enough. Haka have lost midfielder Mika Makitalo to Inter Turku and defender Petri Viljanen to PoPa Pori over the break so their squad becomes slightly more stretched. Expectation will have increased for the Valkeakoski outfit and I don’t think they can cope with it as they proved by losing two competitions at the end of last season. Haka crashed out of the Liiga Cup last year in the group stages; I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see them do that again.
Visitors JJK Jyvaskyla just barely managed to stay in the Veikkausliiga last season by beating KPV Kokkola of the Ykkonen in a two-legged relegation/promotion play-off, meaning that my beloved RoPS Rovaniemi were relegated – boo!! However, JJK probably just about earned it more over the season with some more dogged displays, particularly towards the end of the season. JJK’s problems were largely composed from the fact that they struggled with the concept of “defence” i.e. they had no idea what it meant. However, they’ll have learned at least partially from last season and will be refreshed and ready to take on a new season in a vain attempt to survive. JJK hold a bizarre record over head-to-heads with Haka as today’s hosts failed to beat them in either Veikkausliiga encounter last season with JJK actually winning here 4-2 and drawing 0-0 at home. Haka did manage to beat JJK 2-1 in the Suomen Cup at the end of last season but generally tend to struggle with the tenacious relegation-battlers.
Although I do think that a partially depleted Haka Valkeakoski side are capable of winning this game comfortably, I think Haka will crumble on their first game back with the additional pressure as they proved that they’re all too capable of doing at the end of last season. Haka don’t appear to take this competition very seriously with their most advanced finish over the past four years being the quarter-finals. JJK know they don’t have a chance of winning the Liiga Cup but they’re feisty; they have to start as they mean to go on. A side like this can only be beaten when their effort is matched and I don’t think it will be so early in the season. Don’t get me wrong, this is a risky call but I think there’s value in it if you keep your punts low!
Verdict: Lay Haka Valkeakoski at 10/11.
Recommended bets:
Rochdale, Northampton Town, and Bolton Wanderers at 5/1.
Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, and Norwich City at 6/1.
Rhyl, Brighton & Hove Albion, and Colchester United at 5/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Copa Libertadores:
Colon de Santa Fe vs Universidad Catolica (7) under 2.5 goals
Deportivo Tachira vs Libertad Asuncion (6) 1-0
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix (7) 2-1
English Premier League:
Portsmouth vs West Ham United (6) 1-1
Tottenham Hotspur vs Fulham (4) 1-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Liverpool (6) 0-1
Bolton Wanderers vs Burnley (7) 2-0
English Championship:
Barnsley vs Leicester City (7)
Bristol City vs Cardiff City (6) both sides to score
Doncaster Rovers vs Middlesbrough (6)
Ipswich Town vs West Bromwich Albion (6)
Nottingham Forest vs Queens Park Rangers (8)
Peterborough United vs Preston North End (5)
Plymouth Argyle vs Derby County (5)
Sheffield United vs Reading (8)
Swansea City vs Coventry City (7)
English League One:
Swindon Town vs Leeds United (7)
Walsall vs Norwich City (7)
Brentford vs Southampton (6)
Colchester United vs Milton Keynes Dons (7)
Exeter City vs Carlisle United (7)
Hartlepool United vs Gillingham (5)
Millwall vs Southend United (7)
Stockport County vs Brighton & Hove Albion (6)
Tranmere Rovers vs Yeovil Town (6)
English League Two:
Darlington vs Northampton Town (8)
Chesterfield vs Rotherham United (5)
Accrington Stanley vs Aldershot Town (5)
Barnet vs Torquay United (6)
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Notts County (6)
Macclesfield Town vs Morecambe (5)
Rochdale vs Port Vale (8)
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Haka Valkeakoski vs JJK Jyvaskyla (4) 1-1
Scottish Premier League:
Hamilton Academicals vs Kilmarnock (6) 0-0
Welsh Premier League:
Rhyl vs Airbus UK (9) 3-1
Aberystwyth Town vs Neath Athletic (7) 2-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!