Unaio de Leiria vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa
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Today’s featured game is the Liga Sagres encounter between over-achieving Uniao de Leiria and giants Sporting Clube de Lisboa. The newly-promoted hosts have done more than enough this season and their slump of late is something you’d expect to see from a side that no longer has motivation due to surpassing all expectations. Visitors Sporting still have a lot to prove after a disappointing campaign and are fighting for a place in Europe so this game means a lot to them tonight.
The secret to Unaio de Leiria’s success this season has been purely keeping sides out. They don’t score many goals themselves but they do manage to stop sides scoring rather well. This is well illustrated by the fact that they’ve only won five out of thirteen home games this season but have only lost four times too, conceding just over a goal per home game, which isn’t bad for a newly-promoted side. However, they’re now at a point where relegation is impossible and European football is unthinkable so all motivated has now drained from the Leiria players. You can see it in their recent displays, displays that have yielded just one goal scored but four conceded in their last three games, two of which ended in defeat. Leiria lost their last home game against high-flying Sporting Braga and lost in Madeira against CD Nacional last match so the quality difference is finally beginning to show with Leiria’s guard down. With motivation and momentum currently non-existant, it’s hard to see the hosts taking anything from this one.
Although Sporting are all but guaranteed European football next season, a win would cement it and reward their loyal fans for sticking by their team despite some truly awful football in a disappointing campaign. Sporting have only won four out of thirteen away games this season but they’ve looked quite good lately and it’s only very good displays that have seen them lose any of their games, something I don’t believe that Leiria are capable of tonight. Sporting will have taken heart from their comeback at home to Vitoria Setubal last match and the momentum from this outcome should give them all the impetus that they require to beat Leiria tonight.
There’s a big gulf in ability between these two tonight and I expect it to show as Sporting are finally in a position to do so. Neither of these two sides are great goalscorers with both sides tending to focus on defence rather than attack but the fact remains that Sporting are the better side, they’re playing pretty well, and a win tonight guarantees them European football next season, something that they desperately need from a financial perspective. Hosts Leiria have had a good campaign but have nothing left to play for so the away win looks unusually good value to me as this outcome should really be 4/6 and probably would be had Sporting not had a poor campaign.
Verdict: Sporting Clube de Lisboa to win at 5/6.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Anderlecht vs AA Gent – home win at 4/5.
Short, but sweet! This game is redundant for Anderlecht as they’ve already won the title but Gent need something from the game ideally. They’ll have to attack Anderlecht and a buoyant and potent Anderlecht should have a lot of joy against them. I rate Gent tactically but they’re not good enough to win at Anderlecht tonight. I’ll advise caution as this game means nothing to Anderlecht but frankly backing Anderlecht at 4/5 against anyone in Belgium is worthy of consideration due to their superior ability so give it some thought ahead of tonight’s encounter!
Verdict: Anderlecht to win at 4/5.
KuPS Kuopio vs FC Lahti – home win at 13/10.
It’s kinda hard to justify backing a side that lost their first Veikkausliiga game of the season 5-0 at home but I’ll do my best…!
KuPS vs HJK Helsinki was a massacre. HJK were in better form than they had been for the whole Liiga Cup tournament and KuPS not only defended badly but also did the most stupid thing you can do against a good side – give them a good lead very early in the game. There was no way back for KuPS at 2-0 and HJK strolled to victory.
Will it affect KuPS ahead of today’s game? Probably. I’m hoping it won’t affect them too much. KuPS will have probably written off the HJK game anyway in their battle against relegation, no doubt preferring to focus on relegation six-pointers like today’s game. KuPS began to impress at the end of their Liiga Cup campaign and were generally a tad unfortunate in front of goal. KuPS do tend to be a momentum side, a factor that worries me slightly ahead of this game, but they’ve got the ability to win this one today. Despite it being only their second game of the Veikkausliiga campaign, this really is a must win game for KuPS and they know it after years of battling against relegation from this division so I expect a committed display today.
Visitors FC Lahti – well, where to begin? I’ve seldom seen this side in such dire straits. Their performances virtually hinge entirely upon ageing Jari Litmanen and that’s when he’s fit! FC Lahti’s weak side were badly exposed in their opening Veikkausliiga game at home to a dark horse Jaro Pietarsaari but in an unacceptable 3-1 defeat. Lahti have got an awful lot of problems this year and face a real battle to stay in the division, something I’ve not seen happen to this club for some time now. Barring a surprise 4-1 win at home to HJK Helsinki in the Liiga cup, FC Lahti lost every game that they played in and conceded an awful lot of goals. They’re shipping too many goals and not scoring enough, which is always a dangerous combination and one I expect to hinder them massively.
Although Lahti are the bigger side than KuPS are, I think it’s fair to say that KuPS are more experienced in battling against relegation so they should have the upper hand here. Lahti clearly aren’t used to being ripped apart but KuPS know how it feels and how hard they have to work to bounce back from it so I expect a more impressive display from KuPS today than I do from Lahti. This game should be a close one but I genuinely feel that KuPS have enough to win this one today against a meager FC Lahti side at generous odds.
Verdict: KuPS Kuopio to win at 13/10.
Toulouse vs Auxerre – home win at 8/5.
Auxerre’s run has to come to an end soon and why not today? Unbeknown to most, Toulouse are putting forth a good little run of form. They drew at Montpellier HSC last match and battered Grenoble Foot 4-0 prior to that so Toulouse finally have some momentum to work with. Anyone that knows Ligue 1 football will tell you how strong a good Toulouse side is at home and they’re starting to become that strong home side again with the assistance of their current momentum. Toulouse’s problem has always been goalscoring but given that they’ve notched up six goals in three games, I think it’s fair to say that they’ve overcome that particular barrier, at least for the time being. Toulouse have already won eight out of sixteen home games in Ligue 1 this season and have only lost five games here so they’re generally a force on their own turf. Only Montpellier HSC have conceded less goals than Toulouse have at home this season so Auxerre will have their work cut out to make their narrow wins continue here.
Visitors Auxerre have been extremely solid on the road this season because they don’t concede many. The handicap of that is of course that they don’t score many either. Nonetheless, Auxerre have been very good this season and have earned their fortune. They’ve not been as fluent lately with some more battling displays than anything and I take it as a sign that they’re inevitably slowing down. Another factor here is that Auxerre have a poor record against Toulouse in recent times. They’ve failed to beat them in their last two home games and they’ve lost their last four visits here consecutively without ever having registered a goal in those games so Auxerre are up against it today.
Auxerre haven’t played this well since the days of Sibierski and Guivarc’h, in my opinion, so do be careful today. There should be very few goals in this game as it’s more of a chess game than anything between two tactical sides. However, Auxerre need the points and I expect a rejuvenated Toulouse to capitalise on that and maintain their run of form against Auxerre.
Verdict: Toulouse to win at 8/5.
SC Freiburg vs VFL Wolfsburg – away win at 6/5.
Freiburg have started to battle with some purpose now that the threat of relegation is well and truly upon them. Hell, they even won their last match, which was a home game against Nurnberg so Freiburg are finally beginning to show signs of actually wanting to avoid relegation. However, statistics don’t lie and Freiburg have lost eight out of fifteen home games already in the Bundesliga this season, a record bettered by no other Bundesliga side. Only Hertha HSC Berlin have scored less goals at home than Freiburg have so it’s easy to see why Freiburg are placed so poorly. They may be unbeaten in their last three home games but they’ve not faced tough opposition during that run. However, I expect that to change today as they take on a potent VFL Wolfsburg in a game that both sides could with winning.
Wolfsburg have already won seven out of fifteen away games in the Bundesliga, a record bettered only by giants Werder Bremen, so it’s wise not to underestimate them away from home. In fact, Wolfsburg have won more games away from home than they have at home this season, which shows what a strange campaign it’s actually been for them. Wolfsburg lost their last game but it took in-form Werder Bremen scoring four goals to finally silence Wolfsburg, something that few sides manage to do. Wolfsburg have still won three out of their last four games and will be looking to use what little remains of their momentum as they take on a weak Freiburg side today. Wolfsburg have scored ten times during their last four games, which is truly playing to their strengths and I expect another relentless attacking performance from Wolfsburg as this style really should see them emerge victorious against a Freiburg side that barely manages to score goals.
Wolfsburg don’t have a great record here but the way that they’re taking their chances at the moment, the potential for European football next season, and the momentum they’ve taken from three wins in their last four games should give them enough to break their poor run of form against Freiburg. Freiburg are conceding too many goals and not scoring enough, two factors which should ultimately lead to them losing this game today.
Verdict: VFL Wolfsburg to win at 6/5.
MTK Budapest vs Vasas Budapest – home win at 4/5.
MTK Budapest have done well at home this season in the Soproni Liga. In fact, they’re one of just two sides (along with Gyori ETO FC) that are yet to lose a home game so they’re certainly a force to be reckoned with on their own turf. However, despite their eleven games played, MTK have surprisingly only won five of those games. The reason I find that surprising is not only due to their abiltiy but also the fact that they’ve scored nineteen goals during that time and conceded just five – less than a goal per every two home games, which is less than any other Soproni Liga side. Nonetheless, MTK are playing well at the moment with three wins and one draw from their last four games so their momentum is strong. They’ve scored nine goals during their last four games so MTK are absolutely red-hot at the moment and I expect them to continue their good run of form in this game today.
Visitors Vasas Budapest are an annoying side that really should have been relegated by now. They love to upset the odds with their tenacious football but perhaps at long last the financially troubled club will be relegated and rid me of their annoyance! They’ve not been playing well of late – or all season long, in fact – and lost their last match at Kaposvari Rakoczi. They’ve only lost five out of eleven away games this season but their horrendous record of over two goals conceded per away game threatens to derail them at any given moment, particularly as they barely manage to score half of those goals in response!
MTK have won this fixture 3-0 for two seasons running now and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar scoreline today. The hosts are in good form, they’re the better side, and they’re good at home. Vasas will be hard to break down but MTK should have enough in the tank to make 4/5 good odds on the home win for the superior side.
Verdict: MTK Budapest to win at 4/5.
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Pacos de Ferreira – home win at evens.
Nacional haven’t had the campaign that they’d have liked but still remain a good side, particularly at home. No side has an easy trip to Madeira as the fact that they’ve won seven out of thirteen home games whilst losing just twice along the way indicates all too well. Nacional don’t score many goals but their possession football tends to mean that they don’t concede many either so they tend to inflict narrow wins at home against their opponents. Nacional are defending particularly well at the moment with three consecutive clean sheets and have won their last two home games consecutively so today’s hosts bring a good level of momentum into this game today. Nacional won this fixture 1-0 last season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar scoreline today for the in-form hosts.
Pacos de Ferreira are in dire form currently with no wins in four games, losing three times along the way. You can accept some of their defeats but the unthinkable 3-1 defeat inflicted at home by Naval de Maio last match was totally unacceptable. The result was very much reflective of the general level of Pacos de Ferreira’s football (and indeed luck) in recent times. They’re not playing good football, they’re scoring few goals and they’re conceding far too many. Much like today’s hosts, Pacos have nothing to play for today which is handy considering how badly they’re currently playing. They’ve lost six out of thirteen away games in the Liga Sagres this season and although they’re generally a rather compact side, they’re being broken apart far too easily currently and lack the motivation to exit that run of form so I expect them to struggle today.
Nacional are the better of these two sides and it should be particularly evident at their stronghold so I think the home win at evens represents good value today for the in-form hosts.
Verdict: CD Nacional de Madeira to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Austria Vienna, Lokomotiv Sofia, Litex Lovech, AC Horsens, IFK Mariehamn, RoPS Rovaniemi, Olympique de Marseille, SSC Napoli, AS Roma, Vetra Vilnius, Ekranas Panevezys, Start Kristiansand, Rosenborg BK, Sarpsborg 08, Spartak Moscow, Rubin Kazan, Real Mallorca, Angelholm, Fenerbahce, Shakhtar Donetsk,
Recommended bets:
Anderlecht, Lokomotiv Sofia, IFK Mariehamn, and Olympique de Marseille at 5/1.
VFL Wolfsburg, SSC Napoli, Rosenborg BK, and Real Mallorca at 7/1.
MTK Budapest, AS Roma, Spartak Moscow, and Angelholm at 7/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia De La Plata (6) 2-1
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Banfield (6) 1-0
Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central (7) 0-0
Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Austrian Bundesliga:
Austria Vienna vs SV Mattersburg (8) 2-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht vs AA Gent (8) over 2.5 goals
Racing Genk vs Germinal Beerschot (6) 1-0
Charleroi vs Standard de Liege (5) 1-2
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Brussels vs Eupen (6)
Lierse SK vs Red Star Waasland (7)
Beveren vs Turnhout (5)
Tienen vs KVSK United (6)
Mons vs Oostende (6)
Tournai vs Tubize (4)
Standaard Wetteren vs Dender (5)
Antwerp vs OH Leuven (6)
Liege vs Boussu Dour Borinage (6)
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna (8) -1.75 handicap
Sliven vs Sportist Svoge (5) 2-1
Litex Lovech vs Chernomorets Burgas (9) 2-0
Colombian Primera A:
Independiente Medellin vs Boyaca Chico (7) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Huila vs Once Caldas Manizales (6) 1-1
Cortulua vs Deportes Quindio (5) 1-0
Deportivo Pereira vs Millonarios Bogota (6) 2-1
La Equidad Bogota vs Deportes Tolima (7) 1-1
America de Cali vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (5) 1-2
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Kladno vs Slovacko (6) 1-1
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice (5) 0-0
Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Prague (6) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
AGF Aarhus vs HB Koge (6) 2-0
FC Copenhagen vs Aalborg BK (3) 1-1
Nordsjaelland vs SonderjyskE (6) under 2.5 goals
Esbjerg vs Brondby (6) 1-2
Danish 1st Division:
Vejle vs Vestjaelland (6)
Viborg vs Hvidovre (6) under 2.5 goals
Frem vs Thisted (5)
Lyngby vs Naestved (7)
AC Horsens vs Skive (8)
Fyn vs Roskilde (6) over 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Universidad Catolica vs Liga de Quito (6) 1-2
Macara Ambato vs Manta (6) 0-0
English Premier League:
Aston Villa vs Birmingham City (7) 2-1
Burnley vs Liverpool (7) under 2.5 goals
Everton vs Fulham (7) 2-1
Chelsea vs Stoke City (6) both sides to score
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Jaro Pietarsaari vs Inter Turku (5) 1-1
KuPS Kuopio vs FC Lahti (6) 2-1
IFK Mariehamn vs VPS Vaasa (8) 2-0
Finnish Ykkonen:
Hameenlinna vs PoPa Pori (5)
HJK II vs PS Kemi Kings (6)
RoPS Rovaniemi vs MP Mikkeli (8)
PK-35 Helsinki vs Viikingit (4) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 1:
Toulouse vs Auxerre (6) 1-0
Racing Club Lens vs Valenciennes (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Olympique de Marseille vs Saint-Etienne (8) 2-1
German Bundesliga:
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV (5) 1-1
SC Freiburg vs VFL Wolfsburg (7) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
1860 Munich vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (6)
FSV Frankfurt vs Augsburg (5) over 2.5 goals
Arminia Bielefeld vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (5) under 2.5 goals
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
MTK Budapest vs Vasas Budapest (7) 2-0
Diosgyori VTK vs Szombathelyi Haladas (6) 1-2
Italian Serie A:
Juventus vs Bari (5) 2-1
SSC Napoli vs Cagliari (8) under 2.5 goals
Livorno vs Catania (6) 0-0
Fiorentina vs Chievo Verona (7) 2-1
Genoa vs Lazio (4) 1-1
Bologna vs Parma (6) 0-0
Udinese vs Siena (7) 2-0
AS Roma vs Sampdoria (8) 2-1
Japanese J-League:
Shonan Bellmare vs Vegalta Sendai (6) 1-1
Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus (7) 1-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Atletas vs Vetra Vilnius (8) 0-2
Tauras Taurage vs Suduva Marijampole (7) 0-1
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Klaipeda (7) 2-0
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Mazeikiai (6) 2-1
Ekranas Panevezys vs Banga Gargzdai (8) over 2.5 goals
Mexican Primera Division:
Toluca vs Puebla (7) 2-1
Indios vs Pumas UNAM (6) 0-1
America vs Santos Laguna (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sandefjord vs Aalesund (5) 1-1
Start Kristiansand vs Honefoss (8) over 2.5 goals
Brann Bergen vs Stromsgodset (7) 1-1
Valerenga Oslo vs Odd Grenland Skien (5) 2-2
Haugesund vs Kongsvinger (6) 2-1
Rosenborg BK vs Lillestrom (8) under 2.5 goals
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Lyn Oslo vs Fredrikstad (5)
Bodo Glimt vs Strommen (7)
Sandnes Ulf vs Sogndal (5)
Mjondalen vs Moss (6)
Nybergsund vs Lov-Ham Bergen (7)
Alta vs Bryne (6) under 2.5 goals
Sarpsborg 08 vs Follo (8)
Tromsdalen vs Ranheim (7)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Pacos de Ferreira (7) 2-0
Leixoes vs Academica de Coimbra (6) 1-1
Naval de Maio vs Sporting Braga (7) 0-1
Unaio de Leiria vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (8) 1-2
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Trofense vs Santa Clara (6)
Freamunde vs Gil Vicente (6)
Desportivo Chaves vs Carregado (4)
Beira-Mar vs Penafiel (7)
Varzim vs Fatima (5)
Oliveirense vs Sporting Covilha (7)
Romanian Liga:
Gaz Metan Medias vs Gloria Bistrita (5) 1-0
Universitatea Craiova vs Unirea Urziceni (7) 1-1
Steaua Bucharest vs Poli Timisoara (5) 0-0
Russian Premier League:
Spartak Moscow vs Spartak Nalchik (8) 2-1
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Terek Grozny (7) 1-0
Rubin Kazan vs Anzhi Makhachkala (8) 2-0
Rostov-na-Donu vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz (6) 2-1
Scottish Premier League:
Dundee United vs Celtic (5) 2-1
Hibs vs Rangers (6) 1-2
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Dukla Banska Bystrica (6) 1-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Nafta Lendava vs Olimpija Ljubljana (6) 2-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid (6) 1-1
Racing Santander vs Villarreal (6) 0-0
Almeria vs Espanyol (5) 0-1
Real Mallorca vs Malaga (8) 2-0
Atletico Madrid vs Tenerife (7) over 2.5 goals
Getafe vs Sevilla CF (6) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Cartagena vs Real Sociedad (6) under 2.5 goals
Cordoba vs Levante (6)
Hercules Alicante vs Salamanca (5)
Recreativo de Huelva vs Numancia (6)
Cadiz vs Girona (4)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
GAIS Goteborg vs Kalmar (6) 1-1
Brommapojkarna vs Gefle (7) 0-0
Orebro vs Halmstad (6) 1-1
Elfsborg Boras vs Trelleborg (7) 2-1
Swedish Superettan:
Angelholm vs Vasby United (8)
Swiss Super League:
Bellinzona vs Sion (6) 0-1
Grasshoppers Zurich vs Basel (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Young Boys Bern vs Neuchatel Xamax (8) 2-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Lausanne Sports vs Servette (6)
Gossau vs Le Mont (6)
Vaduz vs Locarno (7) under 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Gaziantepspor vs Istanbul BB (6) 1-1
Kasimpasa vs Fenerbahce (8) 1-2
Galatasaray vs Bursaspor (5) 0-0
Ukrainian Premier League:
Zakarpattya Uzhhorod vs Metalurg Zaporizhya (7) 1-1
Obolon Kiev vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (6) 2-1
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chernomorets Odessa (8) 2-0
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo Wanderers (6) 2-1
River Plate Montevideo vs Racing Club Montevideo (6) 1-0
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Fenix (7) over 2.5 goals
Tacuarembo vs Cerro (5) 1-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Carabobo vs Atletico El Vigia (5) 1-0
Yaracuyanos vs Mineros de Guayana (6) 2-1
Real Esppor Club vs Aragua (5) 1-1
Zulia vs Llaneros de Guanare (7) 1-0
Deportivo Tachira vs Monagas SC (8) 1-0
Zamora vs Centro Italo (7) 2-0
Deportivo Italia vs Caracas (6) 0-0, at least one red card in this game
Estudiantes de Merida vs Deportivo Lara (6) 1-1
Deportivo Anzoategui vs Trujillanos (5) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!