Germany vs Serbia
FreeToday’s featured game is the World Cup game between Germany and Serbia. Germany’s opening game win against Australia has the atypical morons fawning over them and for a change it’s deservingly so – they played well although Australia contributed with some poor play. Today, they’re facing a Serbia side that have naturally let themselves down on the big stage yet again by relinquishing their reliable defence and not scoring enough goals. All in all – not too much that was unexpected thus far.
I was impressed with “Germany’s” 4-0 win against Australia but I wasn’t as blown away as the majority of the media were. Maybe it’s just me, but whereas I admire the German level of efficiency, I don’t think they had a great challenge ahead of them thanks to Australia lying down and saying “Come on; give us the best you’ve got!”. I’m a big believer in the saying that you can only beat what is front of you and Germany certainly did that so hats off to them. I wouldn’t imagine any German side scoring four goals in a game when their best striker (Klose) has rarely featured this season and his accompanying strikers have done little to impress. However, as ever, the Germans prove everyone wrong and you have to hand it to Low – he’s made bold calls this year by bringing youngsters into a traditionally old/experienced Germany side and they’ve integrated with the more experienced team members very well indeed. Germany now have a very good level of experience, pace, determination, and efficiency – enough so to bypass their striking problems when facing inferior opponents, at least. In Schweinsteiger, Germany have a midfielder that is in-form and pulling all the strings and Germany look a lot better for it. I like how they attack and defend as a unit with the likes of Lahm persistently scurrying up and down the line. Germany are basically a very strong unit which is traditionally hard to break down and thus hard to beat. What I’d also point out here is that the Germans have used this supposed “swerving ball” for six months, which does give them an advantage if it’s as swervy as everyone appears to be claiming. On a side-note though – how funny is shit talk about the ball? It’s like Gillette’s advert for razors – “The closest shave ever!” and “So close it will take the skin off your face!” – but the ball is said to be the “lightest” and “swerviest” ball ever. It’s really rather amusing to a cynic such as myself, particularly as the predominant aim of each football is to kick the ball and if they struggle to do that for any reason then I’d question the idea of them being a footballer. It’s like me not updating this site because my keyboard is a bit wonky – surely to God it’d be just straightened out?! Well anyway, logic is a dying art, seemingly, so rant over!
Opponents Serbia do this every single tournament. They have a tremendous qualifying campaign and look rock-solid and yet it all falls down when they enter the tournament. I genuinely don’t know what it is – perhaps pressure or the idea of playing a game without their home comforts in Belgrade. Either way, Serbia have lost their defensive strength and aren’t scoring goals, which doesn’t put them that far away from Greece, in my opinion! If Serbia turn up then they can keep just about any side out on their day but they’ve not turned up in the tournament and they didn’t in their friendlies to warm-up for this tournament so why would they now? They showed a lack of discipline last match by having defender Lukovic dismissed for a second bookable offence and also gifted a penalty to Ghana last match with Kuzmanovic handling the ball in the box totally unnecessarily so again – Serbia are lacking one of their main strengths. The plus regarding Lukovic is that they’re 80% certain to replace him with rising star Subotic, who plays his football in Germany with Bv09 Borussia Dortmund so he’s encountered most (if not all) of the players that will line-up against him today. However, it’s a small advantage in a sea of problems and I don’t fancy Serbia today as a result. I mean, Serbia also don’t look likely to score with their only strength being height in the air in attack. That’s a strength against most sides but the Germans can match it, not to mention that Serbia don’t get the ball down the flanks and into the box well enough. The pace of Krasic, the tenacity of Kacar, and the experience of Stankovic gives Serbia a very good midfield but if they’re not scoring goals and they’re not defending well then they’re going to struggle and that’s exactly what has happened in this tournament so far so I fear for Serbia in terms of them even making it out of the group.
I was tempted by the handicap on Germany at 7/4 but I’ve decided against it – too many games have gone under so far and too much was made of their win against Australia so we may see a glimpse of complacency. After all, they’re facing a Serbia side that certainly can defend – whether they do or not is another matter, however. What I am confident, however, is Germany winning the game because they always manage to find a goal and Serbia simply cannot afford to sit back in this game and be picked off like Australia so they have to attack and thus may get caught on the counter. Therefore, I envision a relatively comfortable German win today. The money is in backing Serbia to not score in this game, however. The height of Zigic is an imposing threat but Serbia are far too one-dimensional in their attack and it’s predictable to defend against. Even the pace of Krasic shouldn’t be as threatening with the pace of the German full-backs being sufficient to keep close to him the majority of the time. I don’t think the German defence is rock-solid but I think it’s enough to deal with a fairly stale Serbia attack today so backing Germany to win without conceding at 6/4 looks a good bet today.
Verdict: Germany to win to nil at 6/4.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Slovenia vs USA – under 1.5 goals at 6/4.
I laboured for a long time before finding any odds that intrigued me in this game and these were the best that I could find. A lot of people are saying USA will win this but I’m not really seeing why that is. Don’t get me wrong – they’re definitely capable of winning the game, but then again, so are Slovenia. You’ve not seen the best of Slovenia in their opening game and you’ve seen close to the best of the USA in theirs so I wouldn’t be too eager to jump on the USA bandwagon. Slovenia are nothing if not well-organised and although their goal-threat can be limited quite well if the defence against them is trained to counter pace, their defence remains very solid at all times, particularly with the talented Handanovic in goal so I’m not sure that the Americans will break through Slovenia’s ranks. Slovenia’s relatively limited attack was dealt with fairly easily by the Algerians in their opening game but Slovenia didn’t play to their best anyway – they looked rather nervous to me. Novakovic wasn’t given chance to show what he can do and I think we may see a more open Slovenian attack in this game. Nonetheless, we’ve got two sides here that really want to avoid defeat. Defeat for Slovenia leaves them with the uphill task of abandoning their reliable defence against England to try and score goals whereas defeat for USA leaves them needing Slovenia to beat England in the final game, neither of which looks particularly appealing!
Therefore, I’m favouring a low-scoring game here, largely because Slovenia have their platform on which they can build and if they ever have that opportunity then they sensibly sit back and defend it because that’s their strength. USA need this win more than Slovenia do currently so I’m expecting USA to have the lion’s share of the possession but do little with it against a solid defence. To be honest, I expect a 0-0 scoreline as a result but I’ll allow for a goal to be scored either way because this is football – it only takes a moment of madness for a penalty to be given away etc. Either way, going under 1.5 goals is the only value I can endorse in this game today.
Verdict: Under 1.5 goals at 6/4.
England vs Algeria – England to score in both halves at 6/5.
Again, this was another tough call to make value-wise. Do I -1.75 handicap England at 5/6? It was tempting but how can I do that when England are so wasteful and susceptible in defence? Algeria aren’t a great side but they’re determined and pacey, two things England seem unable to deal with more often than not.
However, this call is one that I like because one thing Algeria cannot do is defend. I’m therefore expecting a whole host of chances for England to excavate their impotence demons. Algeria cannot afford to do anything but take something from this game so they have to attack because they know they can’t defend, which gives us a good chance of witnessing over 2.5 goals here, which was another bet that interested me a little. However, England have got to take their chances here to avoid finishing second in the group (and therefore most likely avoiding Germany in the second round) and that tells me they’re going to do everything in their power to attack whenever possible and as fortune would have it, they’re facing one of the leakiest defences in the World Cup so they’ve got a great platform on which to launch their goalscoring push.
I don’t envision a great game here but there is a real quality mismatch which should hopefully be exposed today. England are a bit too short for my liking at 5/6 to beat the -1.75 handicap so I’m favouring some decidedly generous odds on England to score in both halves. They started purposefully against USA and scored early on and I think this is a feature that Capello could well have worked on in training to give England an additional boost, particularly with confidence. As a result, England’s performance was good, if only a tad unfortunate. I therefore expect England to push for an early goal and to score in the second-half as Algeria push forwards so I’d say backing England to score in both halves at 6/5 looks a good bet to me today.
Verdict: England to score in both halves at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Germany, England.
Recommended bets:
Germany & England at evens.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
World Cup:
Germany vs Serbia (8) to win to nil
Slovenia vs USA (5) 0-0
England vs Algeria (7) 2-0
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
JJK Jyvaskyla vs IFK Mariehamn (5) 2-2
International Friendly:
Lithuania vs Latvia (6) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Sengkang Punggol (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!